The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
It seems it is more than just buyback action again mawtus - I doubt MS have been given instructions to buy 1m shares in one day, even if the price is the best it has been for a while. It actually looks like there is momentum building again with nearly 1m shares traded already today and up about 1.5% so far. On the other hand Motley Fool has just said "Imperial Tobacco’s shares have fallen in price, and the consensus forecast puts them on a P/E of around 10.5 for 2014, falling to 10 for 2015. In the short term, that looks cheap, especially with those dividends — but with the future of the business looking bleak, I think they’re still too expensive.". To be frank, I would not give those guys any more credibility than Credit Suisse who has a price target of 2600 - LOL!!
Popular numbers today from IMT buying team are 400, 200, 210, 19,357,288 and 307, been at it all morning. Keep it up chaps.
that's interesting mawtus ... the several buys above 2285p were not part of today's buyback. So there are at least others buying, and paying even more than IMT for the pleasure - maybe I am already shifting from Hold to Strong Hold :) "Imperial Tobacco has today, 15 January 2014, purchased 125,000 ordinary shares at an average price of 2183.79 pence per ordinary share. The highest price paid was 2185 pence per ordinary share and the lowest 2179.24 pence per ordinary share."
... makes you wonder how they will ever be able to protect shareholders from a hostile, low low bid (would 2300 do it?) once they are out of cash for any more buying back!? Even now, it seems to be only their own buying that is giving these tiny little rises (relative to recent huge falls).
Now 46 and 146 numbers from IMT by back , incredible how naive?
184 and 46 a popular number from IMT buy back, interesting to watch the trades, so blooming obvious and numbers never seem to go amongst volume.
Interesting to watch inept buys from Morgan Stanley, they use the same buys time after time, too lazy to adjust their brains. IMT having a field day, guess MM in with the gag? does shafted spring to mind? New to this industry but bloody obvious the game.
So what's super about it (apart from the divi of course, which seems quite safe for now)? Why do you think they have a share buyback schedule if the business i so good?
Hi, I never take any notice of broker ratings and tend to invest on my own research. Panmure Gordon for example have a target price on tesco of 650ish (memory failing me This is a great share to own with super divis and I intend holding for years to come along with the occasional top up. GLA here
Can anybody explain how CitiGroup say they are "neutral" on IMT, yet they say the price will go up 20% (to 2500p to be precise)? Presumably, if they thought it a "buy" they would put the price target above 2600p (Credit Suisse who ony have an Outperform on it say 2600, for example)! On the other hand, there are other brokers who are positive about IMT yet have target prices lower than 2500p (eg Investec say "buy" with a target of only 2475). There are also those are negative that have target prices way above today's price (Nomura says reduce and has a new price target of 2270 as of yesterday, a day before ex-div)!? I wonder if this is why nobody pays any attention to broker notes any more. For what it's worth, I'm upgrading IMT from a Sell to a Hold as anything around 22 quid, with 5% divi, cannot really be labelled too high or even inflated any more.
If they were not worried by a potential unfriendly takeover bid, I doubt this management would be plying all that cash into the unimaginative and uninspiring share buy-back. If they were not worried, and had some ideas on how to improve the business they would point any 'spare' finances at that. This does look cheap now compared to when the rumours last surfaced, and would make somebody that can carve it up a small fortune, but unless they turn up and put a concrete bid on the table, there is no reason to go any higher, even if the dividend is quite spectacular in the current climate.
'Enter rumour, painted all with tongues'. I like this one. M&A is just as likely when an industry is under a cloud. Remember AUT, Northumbrian water? You could have put a child through Uni. before they finally happened. It's certainly 50% for my punt in IMT. Good reminder about the divi. If I find some spare dosh down the back of the sofa I may top up.
not sure how accurate this 50% upside hogwash could be but the dividend of 5.25% at today's ex-div price is true. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1945821-imperial-tobacco-up-to-50-percent-upside-5_25-percent-dividend
When this was talked about as a takeover target it was higher than today, so i would think that is not factored into the price as we stand.
didn't know you'd decided to jump in! welcome aboard. :) good luck to us.
yes, of course there will probably be a lower opening price tomorrow (ex-div) but if you are betting on that being as low as 2140 that may be a bit too optimistic/pessimistic depending on your stand-point. Depending on whether it closes today at between 2250-2275 say, I would not expect tomorrow's open to be below 2200, if not a bit higher if Wall Street closes strongly (or of course if there is any more of that takeover talk, but a little more convincing!). Either way, one would expect some strong support around 2200 after all the price targets set recently - even the sell recommenders (eg Nomura) say 2270 whilst the strong buy sayers are forecasting 2500-2700p. This is a tough one to call, but it should open lower tomorrow,
hi, If you buy today and hold it until 16/01/2014 , you will get 81.20 per share on 17/02/2014 http://www.exdividenddate.co.uk/
Some people still reckon this will be taken over this year, by the sounds of things. That link that got deleted is an article posted on the iii IMT discussion forum. The interesting question is, is there a few quid factored into the share price for a possible takeover - if there is and it does not happen the sharp falls of the last few days could easily be repeated. I suppose on the other side of the fence, if there is a takeover bid around the corner, the recent falls could be reversed. If I were IMT management, I would I look seriously into offloading the parts of the business most at risk, reduce the gearing (rather than this ominous share buy back scheme) and to cut these ridiculously high dividends!
The price will plummet 80p or thereabouts tomorrow as it is ex dividend. Surely any short cfd provider would take that into consideration, there is no free lunch on the stock market. As for the Japan tobacco takeover that was talked about ages ago, I never take any notice of daily mail finance talk.
"Finally Jackson names a number of stocks that have either been the subject of a bid or bid speculation in the past, highlighting Imperial Tobacco (IMT), which is rumoured to have been a candidate for buying and carving by the other big players in the tobacco industry." http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/140476/ma-makeover-bid-targets-2014 The drop may be a reaction to reduced confidence in and likelihood of the previously much touted takeover speculation. Do you feel the price is already discounted for such a takeover? Could it drop more if this starts looking less likely? I can't see it happening myself! Either way, there is a lot of money to make here on derivatives as the price could plummet another 80p tomorrow!
I've bought 180. I believe the selling is on the back of this report about public smoking being banned in China:- http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/09/world/asia/china-smoking-ban/ There is a general feeling that health fascists are succeeding in driving the habit underground. The shares are likely to be about 2135p when they trade XD on Wednesday which looks really cheap to me.
I topped up again today. Strange the way it's dropped over the last week or so, especially with it coming to ex div tomorrow.
well if the share price doesn't rebound from current level when the divi notifications are published this weekend over mass media, i reckon it will rebound after ex-divi which should be from around 2140p but i would have pocketed the divi by then. seems to me like a win-win situation so that's why i bought in again. yes, on ex-divi date, the share price will reduce by divi amount.
Quite agree re cig sales but as always creates uncertaity. Fotgive my ignorance and bluntness. as you say you have bought in again re weak SP and going X divi this week yeilding over 5% ( great yeild). The bit i dont get is when ed div dont normally the sp drop on x divi by similar amount and if so are you expexting a rebound in coming weeks.
no worries mate. to be honest, i think it's a whole crock of s h i t e because i don't believe cigarette sales will decline a lot due to that piece of news. but it created a good buy-in opportunity again, for the dividend payout next week. hence, i have bought in again today, ready to buy more if it drops further. currently yielding above 5% p.a. too. all the best.