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pocketed the big fat dividend at last week's close and today i checked to see IMT rallying more than my purchase/top up price. happy!
You're welcome.
Here is Jyske Bank's justification for the 2745 price target and Strong buy recommendation. Not sure how convincing it is, but you can see they have put a little bit of effort into it. If the link below does not work you or it is removed, search for "jyske bank imperial tobacco robert" http://jyskebank.com/wps/wcm/connect/cb2a7226-ab39-4d3f-9dc4-5e087e2be6e7/Imperial+Tobacco_Robert-UK.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=cb2a7226-ab39-4d3f-9dc4-5e087e2be6e7
Imperial Tobacco Group's “Strong-Buy” Rating Reaffirmed at Jyske Bank (IMT) with a price target of 2745p. I would love to know how they have rationalised that targeted 25% hike in the share price to their clients without mentioning the word TAKEOVER! :) Opium - surely it is these guys you should go after re your claims of BS - not those who just share such information here. Slight recovery today - so still a decent hold by my rating.
All very interesting comments, I'm sticking in for a few months and if necessary top up to bring average down on my stock which is £22.28 with all costs. Today strange as opened well for a while and went south, perhaps more behind that than we know? will hold until October and add come what may. Nice to chat to you all
Good luck with your new vod shares when the deal is finalised.
Deal = New VOD+cash +VER(keep or sell) in my case Sell+ put this cash in more New VOD, Think at&T will be on the line. Hope that's clear.
This might explain the fall "BNP Paribas restated their underperform rating on shares of Imperial Tobacco Group (LON:IMT) in a report released on Thursday, AnalystRatings.Net reports. BNP Paribas currently has a GBX 2,350 ($38.73) price objective on the stock."
I have no reason to patronise you and I certainly don't claim to have more reliable judgement than you. I wrote here first about the article predicting the IMT takeover coming to the fore again in 2014 soon after I was shown it (the article is dated Jan 10th 2014 - so not quite that old). When I researched this takeover talk I found only the 2 articles from This Is London and the FT. I suspect I am not the only one here that had not studied them before - especially 3500p per share evaluation was a bit of an eye opener for me. So, I shared snippets from those articles too, when I found them. You can find the new merger article from a few days ago for yourself by searching for "M&A makeover: The bid targets of 2014". I am not really convinced that what you write here (in short, "I am a successful trader and am not interest in what the media is saying") is more informative or interesting than what I write here, but I will let others judge that. In the meantime, a nasty little blip today, and worryingly, on above average volume - I may revert to a sell rating for IMT if she dips below 2200 again. Have a lovely weekend!
Not in vod mate, but whats the deal with Verizon.....just out of interest are you getting shares or cash value?
We can agree to differ. I would urge you not to act like a printers 'devil' cutting & pasting stale news items from Feb 2012 & Feb 2013, most of us read them when they were current. I hold M&A prospects until the predator Confirms or Denies a deal & I am very patient. I have had 10 or so major M/A deals so far, including VOD, which you disparage. These were some examples from my PF, I have interests in about 50 shares, so there is no need to patronize me.
You too are entitled your opinion, Opium, and your own way of expressing it, albeit pretty dull. You seem to prefer attaacking the messenger rather than the guy who wrote the article claiming IMT takeover talk is back on the agenda in 2014. I will not wait for that but it is what underpins the share price during any sell off, together with the impressive dividend and the buyback. With volumes already at 1m again by midday again today, to back the steady rise, even though I do not like the rest of your portfolio as much, I expect you have come to a reasonable conclusion re IMT, I hope you are right, even if your stated trigger for your top up was way off the mark. I would still say this is a strong hold, and if you don't like that, don't read my posts :)
Fully agree with all your thoughts
I have been an investor in this for some considerable time, and the prime reason is the divi. The company is commited to raising the divi year on year by 10pc. Forecast divi for year ending 2014 is 127.04 giving a yield of 5.7pc Forecast divi for year ending 2015 is 138.82 giving a yield of 6.3pc Now, in my opinion, given that there will be an upturn in the economy, I still think you will be hard pressed to get a 6pc return in any bank account at the end of next year. Rather than see the share buyback scheme (which will carry on for a few months yet) as being something to do with JTI making a bid, I believe its more to do with their commitment to increase the dividend by 10pc each year as stated above. The less shares in existence, the bigger dividend for holders. As for plain packaging etc..........I tend to love bad news, anti tobacco lobbyists, government intervention, frenzied media etc, I simply keep some cash ready to buy in low when it inevitably drops and reap the rewards as I watch the price rise back up :) I have no wish to get into an online argument with anyone, these are simply my thoughts on this share, and my main reason for investing in it....the dividend!!! GLA
Nothing I and others, didn't say yesterday. The obvious attractions of IMT are the same as more than half the shares in my PF, VOD, SVT, BP, DRX, for example. Big, boring, FTSE companies paying good dividends and possible M&A targets. Your frenzied speculation is really more appropriate to AIM stocks.
Very interesting, thanks Opium for sharing your considered opinion. Do you have anything to say about IMT as well? Go on ... don't be so precious. Share with us why you think IMT is a good investment in your opinion. Do you not believe that it is a hold right now? Do you think it will not be subject to a big money take-over before the summer? Do you feel nobody would pay the 35 pounds that was quoted?
You may imagine we are all avidly watching you spin like a top from SELL, to HOLD, STRONG HOLD,HOLD backed by pseudo Broker talk, but any one whose concentration span is greater than a newt, sees this BS for what it is. I topped up at 2172p thanks to Syntaxity's timely post
Hi, watched it most of the day sad soul i am but found it fascinating, you could nearly tell when the grey pchs were about to happen, ranged fro 4 to 1790 per trade and roughly at times every 50 normal trades. Guess company pension schemes and Local Government schemes may also be buyers? Think we are in for a few very interesting months and def' holding as possible potential is tremendous. Lets see?
"Imperial Tobacco has today, 16 January 2014, purchased 76,528 ordinary shares at an average price of 2218.84 pence per ordinary share." That's a very small amount compared to other days, and at a very good price. So a good deal for IMT. The volume (2.5m shares) was unusually very high today (avg is 1.3m shares). So perhaps the trading patterns you spotted signifies another big buyer or two. We'll soon find out. If you decide not to bank your profit now you have the secured the juicy dividend too, I wish you all the best. I still say this is at least a hold for reasons I described previously, but I do not give advice! Good luck!
Well appears to have been good, waiting to see how many IMT have pch today, from observations looks a load. regarding smoking, started at 14 and now 65 so looking forward to a £ bonus after all these years of smoking their products. If JT bid that would be a bonus but I'm never that lucky. Going to hang on to them, OK only have 2000 but do not know another decent share as the market is, they all look a bit top heavy and perhaps waiting for a fall and many have poor dividends unlike IMT. Be lucky and good to chat
... oddly, this may turn out to be the safest investment you ever made! The business seems very boring and slow. All the measures taken in various "1st world" countries to reduce smoking (right, whatever they say - who needs all those billions in tax revenues!!) does not seem to impact IMT's profits, in fact, with new products, like e-cigarettes, there seems to even be scope for revenue growth, amazingly. But the real heart of the matter seems to be that whenever the price dips a bit, people start wondering whether the other big boys will gang up, buy (some say for 35 pounds/share!) Imps and carve her up - so the share price can never really drop too much. The buyback scheme is also some sort of guarantee (although not one I approve of, unless there is real fear of a hostile bid at below 30 pounds to fend off). Finally as long as Imps generates enough cash to continue with a dividend scheme that is pretty surreal in the context of the current UK economy, banks getting away with paying under 2% interest for the foreseeable future ... it's not easy to see why IMT is not at least a strong hold now :) All in all, whatever your criteria was for choosing IMT, I doubt, as I think you are saying too, there is anything better or safer to do with your money. I hope the takeover happens soon so you can enjoy the fruits and give up smoking before you do yourself a mischief :)
Well so far looks amazing today, actually use their products so quite heart warming. Bought last Friday the bulk and some on Wednesday to bring my average down. On paper now well in profit with hopefully a very large dividend. Will hold I think for a few months as not sure with the market where to invest. As a smoker plain packet or not will still continue and what a job to control Chinese smoking indoors, mission impossible.
I missed this at the time - £35 a share - that would be some bid to consider :) Remember this is from 20 months ago and since then JT has recently invested big in the largest Russian fag distributor. I don't know if they could still afford IMT, even if it would today go for a lot less than £35, maybe split it with BATS for a "carve-up" even - it may still be an option since IMT seems to be going nowhere fast. The problem is that if this possibility is already factored into the IMT price, then things could get even uglier if JT suddenly announce explicitly that they are not interested. On the other hand, IMT management's ongoing buyback policy has all the hallmarks of a defensive action to preempt an unwelcome prospective takeover, some might even say hostile! From This Is Money's site, 22:41 GMT, 16 February 2012: Lambert & Butler and Golden Virginia cigarette group Imperial Tobacco, the world’s fourth-largest independent cigarette manufacturer, was puffed up to 2504p in heavy trading before closing 43p higher at 2492p on revived talk of a £35 a share break-up bid from Japan Tobacco, which controls over 66 per cent of the cigarette market in Japan. It is now known to be on the trail of further acquisitions after its purchase of Gallaher Group in 2007. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2102243/MARKET-REPORT-Japan-bid-talk-lights-Imperial-Tobacco.html#ixzz2qZRvowyT
don't like to copy and paste so much text but can't include the link as lse will remove it - please search for yourself in FT.com . February 1, 2013 9:03 pm. As Tom78 says, IMT was a lot higher the previous time there was takeover talk, but nothing happened at those prices - let's see if 22 quid is low enough! QUOTED: Tougher than expected market conditions were undermining Imperial’s investment in brands and innovation, suggesting it may be time to consider plan B, Deutsche Bank said. “Consolidation has usually been the fate of the smaller international tobacco player,” said the broker. “We believe that either Imperial delivers sustained improvement in organic sales growth, or that it is ultimately subject to a break-up bid.” “It would be very hard to take this company over. However, we think the lack of clear strategic direction could make it much harder to mount any defence of Imperial, so to that extent it becomes more of a possibility,” said Citi. The shares rose 0.6 per cent to £23.58. Imperial has long been considered a likely target for a carve-up led by Japan Tobacco, which raised guidance this week following a strong performance by its international business.
... just did a search on Motley Fool abd Imperial Tobacco - the same guys wrote "Imperial Tobacco Group PLC Could Help You Retire Early" just as the price collapse in the last few weeks. So if they are true to form and they now say IMT is looking cheap but is a bad investment (if I understand their logic correctly - "Why Imperial Tobacco Group PLC Should Be A Loser This Year"), you better expect an immediate steep rise! :) I still think's it's only a hold, despite the company yesterday allaying fears that plain packet cigarettes in Australia have not so far meant people smoke less.