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Nigwit and Albi1 (one and the same),
Just got back in from doing the garden and see you are still banging on about the imminent demise of oil.
Your motives are clear and it would be much appreciated if you gave it a rest.
This is an O&G company BB and the vast majority on here have an investment in HUR and think that a company in as good a financial position as HUR, with assets to match, are on the cusp of something rather tasty.
You cannot possibly be invested/SB long and keep on posting as you do. Please do not pretend this is the case as it insults most people's intelligence. I can only assume you are looking for a better buy in price, have missed out here previously or that HUR bit you on the way down back in 2017.
I'm surprised at your point of view, as your mate RB over at CA seems to have bought into the HUR story / timeframe in no small way and we all know he can do or say no wrong in your fluttering eyes.
The points you make are simply not going to have a significant detrimental effect on HUR's prosperity in the near term and that's all most of us are interested in.
GLA.
Sorry, realising am veering off topic, but for those interested, an article that goes into some depth about the possibilities of electric flight, published 10 months ago but still pretty relevant.
https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/08/the-electric-aircraft-is-taking-off/
If battery density doesn't improve so that electric airplanes can fly far enough then there will be other ways to cross the planet if needs must.
From where I am in Kent it's already faster to get to the closest parts of Europe by train. Maglev trains are appearing world over and, if sufficient capital was re-deployed, it's not such a big leap to invent faster maglev trains to run in tunnels under the oceans. Such tunnels could be pre-fabricated in sections and suspended mid-water making them fast to build.
https://www.move-forward.com/future-train-technologies-could-they-replace-airplanes/
So I'm convinced hydrocarbons will be eliminated sooner rather than later. Even Saudi Aramco can see it and are deploying capital elsewhere.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/saudi-puts-its-money-on-tech-as-it-prepares-for-life-after-oil
"...******* in the wind..." = urinating, which my wife informs me is even more hazardous for gurls than blokes.
'go to the banks' - if they'll lend a few billion to a hydrocarbon development, with investor sentiment as it is.........
gla
FS22; interesting to read the views here related to future carbon fuels demand (oddly, i'd considered posting a leading question re this on Friday evening, (a) to (hopefully) stimulate such a discussion and (b) to close the arguments re thestreet and 'who buys wot wen' etc. Seeing some daft person (Emma Thompson) trotting-out jingoistic bollocks like " let's make our airplanes not run on fossil fuel" (not quite verbatim, sorry) alludes to the biggest challenge in switching from hydrocarbon to electric: Energy density. Hence the reason for this response, wrt 'batteries': Energy density of the best 'batteries' is still shit compared to the 40MJ/kg of C-based fuels, at around 1/40th of the latter's (mass)-speific energy. Ok, add the donk (internal combustion) and for anything with the grunt to operate/fly more than a few hundred km - or at altitude - with more than a few 100's of kg payload, and IC + oil wins bigtime. So ET knows FA about engineering or technology, we get that, but until a much more energy-dense electric storage technology evolves she's ****ing in the wind. And there's the crux: technologies are evolving on an ever-increasing power-curve of Kondratieff innovation, but there are many competing or potential solutions, and a 'winner' is yet to become apparent. Until there is a clear 'leader' (which petrochemicals were, by a country three-thousand miles (span of the Atlantic, US-Europe), oil will have a big-ish market.
Then there's charging infrastructures, large-scale electric storage (whether distributed or centralised ,both, hydro, sodium salt, etc)........I'm with Nigwit largely (pls don't take that personally anyone) - and just lurve them 8MW wind turbines - but think the HUR sp has indeed suffered somewhat due to lairy investors being offput by the green, anti-fossil-fuel noise. Maybe that 6 months earlier-to-Foil we could potentially have been, has had a cost, sentiment (and sp)-wise. If i were HUR, my Plan B would be go back to the banks for several billion squids, diy FFD and hire the biggest FPSO's i could get my hands on to flog the oil; i.e. be a producer. [Don't BP spud their basement well on Clair about now? I suspect they are hoping to diy and leave HUR to dry.............] ffs, lets have a viable plan b.
GLA
...in fact North America is funding some of the most ambitious offshore wind projects along most of the East Coast. Renewables are big in USA - along with state of art battery technology.
Nigwit
We are of a similar view. The difference being I suspect, our personal reasons for investing and personal timelines. Thanks again for the very interesting and informative links you've posted, energy, all round, is an area I find fascinating and have some optimism in our ability as a species left that we can still create a positive future for ourselves and our descendants.
Albi1
Clearly there are arguments on both sides of the debate and it requires nuance to come to a view. If the discussion was over in either case then the share price, and that of all energy companies, would be traveling in one direction.
My point has always been that I'm broadly positive on Hurricane but that I would not make it my only investment. I have also reduced my expectations over the last two years. Everyone has their own view on this but since the share price has not risen as many predicted perhaps we should consider why.
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I don't think the recent climate change protests can easily be dismissed as presaging a sequence of events similar to that that occurred with tobacco stocks. I can see the likenesses but, to my mind, climate change is orders of magnitude more serious. No-one stopped going to school or blocked central London because of tobacco. A significant number of people, and I'm one of them, are ready to change their lifestyles to help preserve the planet and institutions are responding by moving capital.
I expect Hurricane to be okay for a while since it is near to production but it's naive to think that it's possible to make large sums of money without accepting any risk.
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https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/
Nigwit
Having said that, look for criticism of Tony Seba - found this link by an equally respected analyst - likely the truth lies somewhere between the two.
https://twitter.com/mliebreich/status/981805979594579969?lang=en
Nigwit
Thanks for that link. Fascinating article, Seba, as an MIT Graduate and MBA from Stanford, describes a credible and encouraging future.
Agree with you on fossil fuels, we are dumping low level radioactive waste in the oceans, encased maybe but still can come back to haunt us. Then the first electric car batteries will be obsolete soon so we can chuck them in the sea as well. Which does not make fossil fuel look so bad in my opinion.
Hi AquaeSulis,
"Are energy stocks the new tobacco ?"
Both are addictive, harmful and significant sources of revenue for the State.
Looked at dispassionately, tobacco stocks have been amongst the most reliable performers on the stock market over the last couple of decades.
There are emerging alternatives to both energy supply and tobacco that have advantages and drawbacks of their own.
It depends how far along the spectrum we have got and one's personal views, for me 'on balance' fossil fuels are still investable, whilst tobacco and arms are not.
ATB
Thanks for the many different POV aired here. I raised the original question in terms of how do folk see investment sentiment toward O&G changing given the heightened momentum we are seeing on our streets, in the media and in Institutional Investors under pressure to switch lanes.
I realise this is a potentially divisive subject but as an investor in Hurricane it does feel a little relevant at the moment.
Impact on the planet is reducing in many states but so long as the US and China couldn't give a toss it is mere window dressing. As for the switch from oil to alternative energy within 10yrs - the investment required to replace heavy machinery, trains, planes, buses and cars just isn't there but within 5 years I believe the process will begin. However, some processes may never switch and ramping up.productuon of electric cars is no easy job just ask Elon Musk.
Personally, will be interesting to live in a world where we don't personally own cars to the same extent and I wonder if my kids woll ever need to actually learn to drive with Uber/Lyft and ultimately self driving cars.
There is probably 15-20 yrs more of heavy oil use but as we.know.personal cars account for only a small.proportion of oil consumption.
This well balance article neatly sums up the love/hate situation re energy stocks listing both opportunities and threats
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/david-stevenson-are-energy-stocks-the-new-tobacco/a1214957?re
I really haven’t seen much civil disobedience from those making their case and standing up for what they believe in.They have been generally well behaved without feeling the need to bawl,shout,curse and swear unlike most of their detractors.Theirs is a worthy cause,you only have to watch the David Attenborough programme to realise why and what they protest for.The UK most certainly is not leading the way in climate change and anyone who thinks just because they have to leave out bins on alternate weeks are doing their bit are utterly pathetic and delusional.The protestors clogging up central London are far from being idiots, they are highly motivated intellectually driven people and this is just the start of their protests.The police,politicians and the media have been well and truly caught on the hop,time to get used to what will be coming more and more to your city .I support them wholeheartedly because i want my kids,grandchildren and great grandchildren to have a planet they can live on throughout their lives,Klepto.
JayKay1
Have you seen the civil disobedients? Most are in their forties and fifties. Their cause is bullshit because realistically, the UK is doing its bit and Rome wasn't built in a day. The UK is generally leading with dealing with climate change. I know this for a fact because I have three whopping great bins to put out on alternate weeks; A brown bin and a black bin, for garden trimmings and non recyclable waste one week and a green bin for everything that my local council can recycle the next. And I can tell you, these bins are an eye sore the country over.
Now, compare that to Garbage City in Cairo - worth a Google, and all the shit on the streets around Cairo and on the banks of the Nile. Or all the rubbish on the streets of Mumbai or Bohpal. They and many other parts of the world are like something out of the Division 2. And I am absolutely not exaggerating there. Rotten rubbish piled high and streets littered all around the world. But generally, not in the UK.
These people need to get a life. And a job.
Technology travels fast ( Moore’s Law ) it’s the application , the socialisation of it that takes decades. HURs timeline I reckon is less than two years ( meaning 13 months plus ) Marlon Brandoesque.
You’re welcome Albi1. For a different perspective you may enjoy listening to this. It’s only one opinion but it’s far from the only one with the same POV.
https://soundcloud.com/user-459200425/tony-seba-says-energy-as-we-know-it-will-be-obsolete-by-2030
Nigwit
Understand your point, nevertheless some interesting posts today. Appreciate your insight and perseverance!
Straight back to peak oil completely missing the point. Are these the same posters who complain about MMs manipulating share prices when they don’t rise when they predict?
That’s why I rarely post.
Renewables currently around 15% - expected to grow quickly to 30% with massive investment per year in offshore wind projects... If government cannot get foreign investment to fund nuclear - most likely new power stations will be natural gas... then leading to potential CCS sanctioned in 2025. Hydrogen could then be used to power our train network by 2030. All called the ‘energy transition’, just google-it.
20-30 years until peak oil 50+ years until see a notable change in oil demand
Current reality...
- Nuclear flagging in the West
- Renewables provide bugger all in the scheme of things
Where is all this electricity going to come for ..........oil powered power stations...LOL