We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Biffa
Going back to your OP on this thread, the PBLJ is booked solidly or thru options to either Zennor or HUR right thru to Aug 19.
so effectively the timing of her release to HUR is in Kerogen's gift, tho of course they would have to balance the interests of their 2 investments.
So it is possible , no more, that HUR might start punching holes whenever FOIL starts giving us cashflow, Zennor ops permitting.
Hi Cebo456. You're right. Much more interesting stuff going on. Thanks for the apology but maybe from my side I should have used words like "could" or "might". Apologies for being a bit pedantic. BD.
*do , not don.
Biffa, both look like they are statements of fact to me, and IMO, saying there is no doubt if anything reinforces it - but this is a BB and not a court of law, so I really do not see that matters either way and there is far more interesting stuff happening operationally. Still I don appoligise for miss-quoting you mate, and hopefully if there is any small dip in the SP after FOil, lets hope that it is preceded by a Pound sign.
He didn't say that, and your two statements don't look that different to me...
PS: I didn't say "it will drop off after oil" as you've quoted me. I said "No doubt there will be a drop off immediately after FOIL" Very different statements. "IT WILL" is a statement of fact and I wouldn't make one of those in connection to the SP. GLA.
Hi Cebo456, I certainly hope that the SP doesn't drop off a bit after FOIL but I certainly think there will be some profit taking and derisking going on and this will result in a drop off in the SP in the short term. However, I agree with you that with the prospects of inclusion in the FTSE250, drilling and the potential of a FO or TO this drop will hopefully be short lived. Who knows, maybe the SP will rise. Probably shouldn't have commented as it's finger in the air stuff anyway ! FWIW I won't be selling any shares after FOIL. GLA.
Biffa, thats an interesting call - "this will drop off after first oil". I am not so sure that it will and there is nothing really comparable to benchmark it with. I suppose it also depends how the SP performs on the lead up to FOil - I think that FOMO (T-Over/Main Market news etc) will also keep many from selling on FOil news.
Hi IJWT, Great. Looks like all things being equal, we should see some drilling activity start by Q2 2019 (even allowing for the Repsol slippage). It's important, because we need something to support the SP after FOIL. No doubt there will be a drop off immediately after FOIL but with some drilling activity in the not too distant future that should limit it. From there on in, we will be producing oil and increasing 2C. Happy days. GLA.
Hi Genghis, This is true but it would be odd to use another rig when HUR have the drilling slots reserved already. Just to add that they are a no cost option should HUR not take them up. Suitable rig availability from Transocean is very tight, so finding another rig would be difficult anyway. GLA.
Of course there is no particular reason to use the PBLJ next year, could be a different rig.
Biffa With Foil likely in 2018 the BoD will fairly swiftly know the position with PBLJ and drilling options. Expect therefore their planning is for the knowledge of flow to be sufficient to take up the options in good time. They have hit their straps on timings for most items so far. Zennor finished by Jan/Feb then some maintenance and on to HUR.
Ricfle, "I am sure that even the BoD cannot state what continence they will be left with, when they achieve first oil." Are you suggesting they may have p**sed themselves laughing over what Shell didn't recognise back in the seventies?
Genghis15 I was talking about xmas trees not drilling. On the 20 Oct 2016 Hurricane raised £70m for drilling and to "secures EPS development timeline". On the 17 May 2017 Hurricane raised £12.7m witch we now understand to be for the xmas trees. On the 20 March 2018 the xmas trees were delivered. Therefore, we are looking at a 17 month time line from order of the xmas trees to delivery, so if Hurricane are seriously contemplating "long‐term production testing" they need to order the xmas trees now to start in Dec 2019! Or have they already placed an order?
"drilling would be subject to FOIl, and if FOIl was late drilling would be late as well." That's what he said. Refer to the AGM presentation with speaker notes.
Ricfle I do not believe there is sufficient "contingency" in the EPS raise to fund a drill anyway, as I said before, but RT stated firmly and specifically, without being asked, that drilling would be subject to FOIl, and if FOIl was late drilling would be late as well. If you go back to the 2 presentations of the rsaise and look at the different bdowns . fixed sums, reimbursables, etc, I think you will see what I mean.
Genghis15 "And btw, it was made clear at AGM that drilling would be funded from cashflow;" ------------- I am sure that even the BoD cannot state what continence they will be left with, when they achieve first oil. However, from slide 23 of the AGM presentation: "Appraisal wells may be tied back to the Aoka Mizu for long‐term production testing." If you want to push the job on, why not order the long lead items like, an xmas tree?
biffadog. current "EPS" costs include a contingency (and some $100M reimbursable estimates from memory). it MAY be cash resources in hand could contribute in addition to EPS cash flows. i would of course expect offtake funding to be put in place with BP - likely after foil - to provide cash flow headroom to hur.
And btw, it was made clear at AGM that drilling would be funded from cashflow; if FOIL delayed, drilling will be too. Other attendees can confirm.
pjoe The "contingency" in the EPS cost was analysed much here at the time of the raise. I remember posting then that whilst the different bdowns and terminology used in the different presentations made it difficult to nail down, it was clear to me that after taking account of the costs of the raise and the CB interest in escrow, there will not be enough in there for further drilling. It will have to be from cashflow.
biffadog. current "EPS" costs include a contingency (and some $100M reimbursable estimates from memory). it MAY be cash resources in hand could contribute in addition to EPS cash flows. i would of course expect offtake funding to be put in place with BP - likely after foil - to provide cash flow headroom to hur.
Just found the latest Transocean Rig Satus Report dated 18th April 2018, so I may have answered my own question. HUR have 2 options. March-June and June-August. Don't know if these have been pushed back by 2 months mind. http://www.deepwater.com/Documents/April%202018%20Fleet%20Status%20Report.pdf GLA.
Thinking forward, I'm assuming that the 2019 drill options for the PBLJ have been pushed back by two months due to the overrun from the Repsol contract. After the HUR EPS work Zenor Petroleum have her for 5 months. The drill options are reliant on cashflow from the EPS, so I assume the later the PBLJ is available in 2019, the better. Can anybody add anything to this ? GLA.