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http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-08-15/Copper-Surprises-With-1-5-Year-Lows-What-s-Next.html
As long as Ivan keeps his cheque book in his pocket & doesn't go doing deals like that one Kaz done Glen will ride the slump out in commodities , as long as this is short term correction & we are not in the middle of a full blown crash that is ATB
They are spending a fortune on share buy backs, not a company with cash flow problems.
Obviously Glencore's debt is a concern if things got really bad. But they would need to get pretty dire, they have a fair amount of inventories and cash.
Billy,
Sorry just seen your question... I think it's a bit premature to be calling another 2015 event for Glencore. It doesn't matter how tough China talks they could cave in tomorrow for all anyone knows. I don't think they will, but who knows.
On the assumption that they do carry out their threats of "fighting till the end in any trade war"... then it seems logical that Copper demand is going to take a big hit with China. It will eventually re-balance itself either to the USA or China (depends who wins), but as long as Trump is in charge, The USA will probably win.
270's seems logical at least... but the price will ultimately be determined by a mixture of sentiment, data, commodities prices and Trump Twitter account ;-P
Sorry for all the info, better than giving you a half hearted answer
And yes Investment Trusts can be held in an ISA provided your broker offers them. Mines does, I'm with Hargreaves Lansdown.
You can set up a regular savings plan with them for only £1.50 per monthly fixed purchase, so you don;t need to pay the full trading fee each time you buy more shares in the fund.
Pete,
And if you want an idea of what you could make, use this compound interest calculator. Stick in the average annual return, how much if anything you can save each month, change the compound to yearly... and then look at the figures you could expect.
https://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php
Go to the below link, click the "Performance Price" tab link, then sort it by 10 Year anualised so you can see the annual average growth rates over 10 years. Change the Sector to UK Smaller Companies, you will notice other sectors out performing them, but if you look at them on yearly basis you will see they can go for years doing nothing then suddenly rocket. Hence why I prefer UK smaller companies.
I obviously think the market is too high just now, so I won't be buying anytime soon. I probably won't get the bottom, but I will buy at a significant discount to NAV (Net Asset Value). Some of these funds lost as much as 50 to 70% during the financial crash, all recovered the whole lot back and a lot more since. Anyone who was lucky enough to get the bottom would have 10 bagged on some of them 1000%
Big names are Blackrock, Standard Life etc
http://tools.morningstar.co.uk/uk/cefquickrank/default.aspx?Site=UK&Universe=FCGBR%24%24ALL&LanguageId=en-GB
Pete,
There's two ways of investing in professionally managed funds. "Unit Trusts", and "Investment Trusts". Unit Trusts are rubbish charges wise, the broker typically charges you a percentage of the total holdings each year to hold them in your trading account, that's on top of management fees within the fund... it adds up to a lot over the years.
Investment Trusts are better (in my opinion and I'm not a Financial Adviser so do your own research) Investment Trust operate just like a publicly listed company, you can buy and sell them just like buying shares in any other company. The charges are incorporated into the fund without you have to make sure you have a monthly amount to pay the broker.
The broker typically charges you the same management charge as holding any other stock. And the best bit about them is, when the market tanks the Investment Trust manager doesn't have to see investments in order to pay you. You just do an instant quote and decide on whether or not to deal just like any other stock.
Because of this, and the charges being less... they typically significantly out perform Unit Trusts in the same sector, and even the Unit Trust version of them with the same fund manager.
Obviously past performance is not guarantee of future returns, but one of the best performing sectors appear to be UK Smaller Companies, Biotech and Technology funds. I won't be buying Biotech or Tech funds because they often sit doing almost nothing for years and then suddenly rocket on new developments... the growth is not regular.
The UK Smaller Companies grow provided their underlying bench marks grow, and they usually significantly outperform the FTSE 100 and 250. Obviously when there's a big sell of on markets they drop just as fast too, but no more than the likes of Glencore has in the past.
The best thing about them is you get decent growth without the need to obsess over trading. All investment funds will tell you, you need to be willing to invest for at least 5 years. Obviously if you buy at the top of the market it could tank and then take 5 years just to break even, with the 6th and 7th years onward making you a packet.
300 to 400% (or more) is not unusual over a 10 year period. That might sound like too long, but the likelihood of anyone making that sort of return across their entire investment pots is very unlikely without taking excessive risk and getting lucky.
Obviously Glencore managed this, but when it was under 100p no one could be certain it wouldn't go bankrupt. It obviously didn't but you never know. At least with investment trusts if one or two companies in it completely die a death... it's not going to screw your happiness because it's diversified.
jmo who does these investment trusts ? how much are the charges?? what sort of time span? and can you have them via a isa ?
hope they pay the divis in the same manner as last time. i.e. return of capital, at least divi tax dont apply then. maybe why ivans retaining the buybacks in treasury so he can pay from that pot then cancel em. Certainly a roller coaster ride with glen.
Cheers JMO, best of luck to you whatever you do , just seen an interesting chart on bloomberg there, copper is down 23% from peak same as oil was before it floored & bounced strongly although there wasn't any tariff nonsense around then, I don't think copper has bottomed yet so think Glen will see 270's at least ATB
Pete.ya never know with these feckers but as long as they keep paying me a divi I'll grin and bare it
Picket,
The 270's is a reasonable area of support. Doesn't mean it will get there or if it does that will be the floor. It all depends on how long the trade war goes on for and what the resulting economic data is from that.
I just know I'm not buying into the market again until there's been a very big drop, that means I will miss various bounces along the way no doubt. Not fussed. I'm not buying any individual stocks at all, I'll be going into investment trusts, saves me having the actively trade.
It would different if we still had all that debt, we haven't we're down to 9 billion and making vast profits, but I agree with Billy, with this share buy back, if Ivan want the share price to go up , he could by by back the share and cancel them , not put them Treasury. Atb
very true without just got to play the long game now.
Ifonly, your only flecked if u sell . ATB
Don't say that billy ffs or I'm fooked.
it certainly would have been a better plan to pay the real debt down rather than chase the descending price, debts never good to carry around in a poor market.
Yeah billy but net debt now down to 9 million , was it not around 30 to 40 billion when it hit 67p? ATB
What do ya think jmo history going to repeat itself?
Last time glencore dropped below £3 was in 2015 before it fell off a cliff down to a bottom of 67p
See what I mean about share buy backs useless in a falling market they should of held it for buying ops or pay off debt while they can or returned it to us poor feckers
right then the BIG question is, whose buying some more?