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Not this year it won't !!
We are another 250 meetings away from any oil flowing.
Iraq will want to delay as long a possible.
They want kurdistan to implode on its self that's is all to see.
Im getting nervous because I think the IOCs will be going to court on this soon ! OK we can still sell locally at $30 indefinitely before the courts decide???
Article 1 hour ago
https://www.iraqinews.com/iraq/iraqi-government-is-eager-to-resume-oil-exports-through-ceyhan/
'Lost' 600,000 Euro plus yep. Piled in since..waiting for 5 pounds plus minimum to get out even. Not looking rosy.
After receiving c. 132p per share worth of dividends, I can claim that I managed to offset all my losses against Gkp itself. The average price of my Gkp holding after restructuring and 100:1 consolidation completed was 172.xx p as I applied for the maximum oo shares and got 22 oo shares for each share held pre-restructuring.
Best Regards ValueS
What is the probability that it never re-opens?
I got about 3% off my investment back Bugsy after the dilution. I could not afford to plough more money in. Real shame I will never see that initial outlay ever again.
The main sticking point is Baghdad going on and on like a demented Dalek about the contracts having to comply with Iraq state law, and the IOC's saying "Stuffu". It looks like all parties have agreed to fight about the fines etc separate from the pipeline being sorted. Would be nice to get a resolution before Christmas but I'm thinking January before some kind of face saving deal is found, APIKUR have offered to sell direct to SOMO, but Baghdad have forced themselves into a corner with some superbly inept manoeuvring.
A few for sure including me, still waiting for value to return here and have slowly rebuilt my investment taking advantage of the covid drop and recent pipeline closure.
Are there still posters on here pre 2016 when the restructuring took place and ordinary shareholders had there investment entirely wiped out.
I lost a shed load on GKP when the dilution and restructuring took place in 2016. Just wondered if there anyone on here who lost out and managed to offset those losses against other assets?
If ICG keep paying Ankara the daily pipeline fee for the transporting of fresh air - how long will it take to pay off the Paris fine for them ?
.
One million a day lost, just because they are trying the cheat the oil companies out of their legal and rightful share of the crude extracted.
Money the Iraqi people cannot afford to lose just due to the stupidity of those in charge.
Pressure building on them all the time.
No point keeping it empty when Turkey is charging Baghdad almost $1 million a day for the pipeline, as it's now open from their point of view.
All adding up day by day....numpties.
YET ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR BAGHDAD TO REOPEN THE PIPELINE
According to officials, Turkey has lifted the force majeure invoked over technical issues and reopened the pipeline. It can therefore begin charging the Iraqi government for pipeline tariffs under the terms of the 2010 Amendment. Tariffs would total around US$25 million per month, creating a financial incentive for Baghdad to settle competing compensation claims with Turkey, resolve budget and revenue sharing issues with the Kurdistan Regional Government and restart oil exports.
APIKUR estimates the Federal Government of Iraq is incurring over US$1 million per day in financial penalties for not meeting its obligations under the ITP agreement.
Which is scheduled for 1 June 2024.
Martijn Rats, CFA – Morgan Stanley
November 30, 2023 11:41 PM GMT
Formal quota were left largely unchanged, but several countries deepened their voluntary cuts at yesterday's OPEC meeting. Even with only partial compliance, this should prevent stock builds in 1Q and be sufficient to support Brent in the mid-80s. Hence, we leave forecasts unchanged.
Quota largely unchanged, but additional voluntary cuts extended and/or deepened: OPEC countries used to set simple production quota. However, over the course of 2023, this has evolved into a system with official quota and additional voluntary cuts on top from a subset of countries. At yesterday's meeting, the formal quota were left mostly unchanged but several countries either deepened or extended their additional voluntary cuts. In aggregate, these additional voluntary cuts add up to a headline figure of 2.2 mb/d for 1Q 2024. However, 1 mb/d of that is an extension of Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut, which was already in place for 4Q23. Another 0.5 mb/d comes from Russia, which is formulated as an export cut, not necessarily a production cut. Also, Russia's cut is spread across crude oil and refined products, which makes it hard to track. The remainder comes from Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria.Only the West African countries saw a revision of their quota, following technical assessments of their production capacity by three independent agencies. Nigeria's quota increased by 120 kb/d to 1.5 mb/d, but Angola's quota came down 170 kb/d to 1.11 mb/d. However, Angola has already indicated that it does not intend to stick to this new quota.Commitment to cuts appears uncertain; expect only partial compliance: The fact that these cuts took such a long time to negotiate, and are still not part of the formal quota, hints at only limited commitment from OPEC countries to implement them. As a result, the impact on our supply/demand balances is likely less than the headline figure suggests. The extension of the 1 mb/d voluntary cut from Saudi Arabia was already incorporated in our forecasts; in fact, we already assume that Saudi Arabia will ultimately extend these cuts to 2Q 2024 as well. Of the remaining 1.2 mb/d headline cut, we assume that, in the end, only half will eventually be implemented. Hence we have lowered our OPEC+ production forecast for 1Q24 by ~0.6 mb/d. Brent forecast unchanged around mid-$80s: This updated supply forecast has flipped our 1Q24 balances from a 0.3 mb/d surplus to a 0.3 mb/d deficit. However, we still see the market turning into a small surplus again in 2Q and 3Q 2024. Across next year, we see inventories building, albeit only slightly. As discussed previously (see The Oil Manual: OPEC's Balancing Burden), we estimate that this inventory outlook supports Brent in the mid-$80s, so we leave our Brent forecast unchanged at $85/bbl flat throughout 2024. Still, this estimate depends on OPEC+ keeping production constrained also at the next meeting, which is sched
Yes, the meetings appear to be just an excuse for tribals to appear on local TV and play pretend importance…. whatever, but remember that most of them attending are seriously wealthy, and will not flinch to remove us from the scene and sign over ‘their’ oilfields to China or Russia for personal gain (again).
Meeting is at Oil Ministerial level to find a final solution.
Given the need to find an agreed understanding of the key Articles within the Constitution, probably won’t be the final meeting 🙄
If by some miracle the two governments do come up with a solution then it has to gain APIKUR approval before exports restart.
If APIKUR then turned it down, then what…?
Two ****** off governments versus IOCs who are very confident they will win if the situation goes to court and who are surviving very nicely by using local sales in the mean time.
Dare the governments unite and instruct the local buyers to stop, thereby cutting off the IOC’s source of revenue?
Given that they are both prepared to put their own citizens through hell, why not throw in winding up international companies as well.
So the useless twats are supposedly meeting today?
Hi Swell,
They are most certainly feeling the pain, with a $8B loss of earnings and counting coupled with unused export pipeline penalties.
Throw in local crop failure due to Turkey holding the water in its dams because they wont export Crude oil, and locals hungry and unpaid salaries and a totally different picture emerges.
Our management team have actually done a very good job, keeping a bit below the radar and having a collective spokesman to prevent being singled out and penalised. Its taking a long time but the rewards are most certainly worth holding out for. The IOCs are in a relatively good position and attempts to force them into poor terms with new contracts by financial blackmail are not working. As a serious shareholder our board has my full support.
After all this time and money lost, no one seems to be missing this company or, there’d be more effort put in to getting exports restarted. Meeting for meetings and local sales are making Shaikan irrelevant and with more geopolitical nonsense bubbling up, the ITP will fall further from the agenda. All very disappointing but, this is Iraq.
Gaza bombings started few hours ago,, Could Get Very Ugly Very Soon,,
Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-production-september-rose-monthly-record-eia-2023-11-30/#:~:text=NEW%20YORK%2C%20Nov%2030%20(Reuters,Administration%20data%20showed%20on%20Thursday.
In my book top marks for the Yanks managing to increase shale oil yet again, wasn't that long ago that they surpassed 10M BOPD.
Clearly we see that without them OPEC would have crude oil at $150 plus dollars a barrel right now and we would all be paying handsomely to line the purses of the OPEC members.
Saw shale oil estimates of 200B plus barrels in USA alone so wont like the UK deplete the fields.
Renewables are also ramping up quickly as we move to EV's. Seen the latest plans for 900Mtr offshore wind turbines and they are very impressive indeed, coupled with these not so mini Rolls Royce neuc reactors, self sufficiency for UK is becoming strong probability. Yes we will still require oil and chemical products but in vastly reduced quantities.
By OPEC keeping crude in the ground foolishly thinking they might utilise it in the future its allowing and causing even more USA production. Without crude sales Iraq which hasn't currently even got electricity for half a day will not develop much at all. Its reported there especially in Kurdistan that companies like ours are producing crude while flaring massive quantities of gas, flashing off diesel in the local teapots, then selling that diesel to the locals so they can power highly polluting and inefficient generators to generate home electricity to keep freezers etc working.
They are also collectively pretty thirsty, so local crude rates are increasing.
SOMO in Iraq is now in charge of "OIL and GAS", so that actually puts them in control of electricity production, so again the blame for poor supply falls at their feet.
History of honouring contracts is essential for any company be it Chinese or Brazilian building gas fired boilers to produce electricity for them.
Now 8B dollars lost on crude flow.. will we see 9B$ ???
Good morning, Andy.
The article is interesting as it delves into the intricate interplay among Saudi Arabia, China, and the United States, with a particular focus on the recent $7 billion currency swap arrangement between Saudi Arabia and China. The narrative posits that this move could signify a prelude to an economic maneuver by the U.S., drawing parallels to the 2014/15 oil crisis that targeted Russia.
The writer presents the strategic calculus of China, utilizing its U.S. Treasuries and dollar reserves to extend loans to pivotal emerging market partners, thereby stabilizing yuan/USD exchange rates. This, as argued, aligns with China's overarching objective of gradually supplanting dollars with yuan in the global economic landscape.
Surely delving into historical context, it parallels Russia's resilience during the 2014/15 oil crisis, facilitated by a swap line with China, and contemplates a potentially analogous scenario for Saudi Arabia. The economic intricacies of Saudi Arabia come to the forefront, emphasizing budgetary challenges despite low oil extraction costs, and proposing a remedy in the form of breaking the peg of the riyal to the dollar.
At its core, the analysis posits that Saudi Arabia may be gearing up for an impending oil price offensive, seen as retribution for its divergence from U.S. foreign policy norms. The narrative anticipates a realignment of alliances, envisioning Saudi Arabia forging closer ties with Russia and China.
In what I see, the analysis navigates through economic strategies, geopolitical intricacies, and potential future trajectories with finesse, offering an intellectually rigorous perspective on the evolving dynamics in the Middle East and the global financial sphere.
Best watch out or your tin foil hat will fall off Andy
PUTUP should Shutup
Ha! you quote (without references) some Grauniad/FT hack and don't actually read the replied quoted blog "cos capitalism"
No wider geopolitical background checks, just "meh capitalism"
No broad market-based analysis of uni to multi polar tectonic political shifts, just "blah, capitalism"
Idiot.