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Better deal more profit for GKP
"Speaking at a conference on 21 Nov, Barzani said crude exports from N. Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port could only resume once the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad agreed to pay international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Iraqi Kurdistan in line with their existing contracts."
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي
@Bacharelhalabi
New 🇮🇶🔆: The prime minister of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region,
@masrourbarzani
, has played down the prospect of an imminent restart of crude exports through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP).
6:52 PM · Nov 21, 2023
from Dubai, United Arab Emirates·
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي
@Bacharelhalabi
·
Speaking at a conference on 21 Nov, Barzani said crude exports from N. Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port could only resume once the federal Iraqi government in Baghdad agreed to pay international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Iraqi Kurdistan in line with their existing contracts.
Bachar EL-Halabi | بشار الحلبي
@Bacharelhalabi
·
#Baghdad is understood to want to bring these PSCs more in line with its own contracts, which are seen as far less attractive to IOCs.
“Disputes over the oil and gas law continue”
@DrawMediaNet
“Kazim Tugi, a member of the Iraqi Parliament's Energy Committee said, All technical issues of the oil and gas law have been resolved, except the political issues between Erbil and Baghdad, which requires political intervention.”
Two sides negotiating the possible adjusting of contracts, one didn’t understand the thinking behind the original contracts and the other doesn’t accept the validity of the rules (AKA interpretation of the Constitution) being used to change them.
Once they finally reach an adjustment that is politically and technically acceptable to both of them, then that’s all that’s left is to present their solution to the IOCs with whom the original contracts were written.
What could possibly be causing the delay?
I would imagine that SOMO/ICG will offset the empty pipeline tariff against what is owed from Turkey for the $1.4 billion fine.
Surely the usual suspects who hold our contracts are not standing by watching us pocket $39/bbl for local sales - knowing that the lion’s share of that is theirs by birthright and precedence ?
Good post Morbox,
Seems they like us are in a strong position and getting $39 a barrel.
All the kurdy oilers are in a position to hold out and united in their approach. Seems they do have the whip hand now.
Also the comments about the increasing demand due to the large price differential. Bodes well and we may well see crude prices that are being charged move up slightly. That will benefit everyone bar SOMO, who have losses nearer $8B plus bills for an unused pipeline thats contracted at 400K BOPD. All through their own stupidity, and the quite frankly deserve it, but the Iraqi population do not. Their salaries should be stopped until agreement reached.
In GKP grows stronger each day, its all about holding and adding as we get closer to the pipeline route opening up,
A return to Dividend's in 2024 a very strong possibility
That was for the last payment received and actually it was more like $4.14 per barrel PO less CBC (Sep '22 production)
I would be shocked if they get a fixed $ per barrel regardless of the price the oil is sold at...
"cost plus $6 dollar a barrel "
They are only getting costs plus $4.20 a barrel now
Just another bot, last place bj poked his nose and made centre stage, ie Ukraine, will end as the worst disaster for the West since ww2. So not 2 sure his nose here brings any confidence to moi
Granted it's not a sure thing but each to their own..I like big director skin in the game usually. My read is the deal if agreed will be cost plus $6 dollar a barrel or more...matter of time I should hope..you pays your money you take your chances
Doesn't mean he gets it right
Price signals in the oil market tell a story of softening fundamentals: not only has the flat price come down in recent weeks, but physical differentials in the North Sea market have weakened, the Dated-to-Frontline swap has rolled over, the CFD curve is no longer as backwardated, and West African crudes have lost their premium - all telltale signs that the oil market is not as tight as it was a few months ago.
Looking ahead, much depend on OPEC's upcoming production decisions. Demand growth this year has been strong: at ~2.2 mb/d, demand grew well above the historical trend rate. However, this is likely to slow down in 2024 – we peg next year's growth at ~1.2 mb/d.
At the same time, growth in non-OPEC supply will likely also slow but remain significant. Notwithstanding a significant slowdown in US shale in 2024, non-OPEC production will likely still grow by ~1.4 mb/d. That is less than growth of 2.2 mb/d in 2023, but would still be sufficient to meet all global demand growth.
Surprisingly, this does not necessarily change in 2025 or 2026 either. Despite low levels of upstream capex in 2020/21, the pipeline of non-OPEC projects alone appears sufficient to meet all global demand growth in the next few years at least.
Taken together, this leaves little room in the oil market for additional OPEC oil. We estimate the 'call-on-OPEC' at ~28.3 mb/d, practically unchanged for the fourth consecutive year. Still, by now, OPEC spare capacity is close to ~5 mb/d – near its 20-year high – and OPEC market share has already declined ~220bp over the last year.
Although this creates longer-term tension in the oil market, OPEC has previously indicated – in words but also in action – a strong intention to balance the market. We already incorporated an extension in our supply/demand model for Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut to end-1Q24 several months ago. However, we now assume that this will be further extended to end-2Q24 and that Saudi Arabia's production will increase only gradually during 2H24, but remain (well) below its formal OPEC quota of 10.5 mb/d during that period.
On that trajectory, global inventories would remain broadly unchanged, which would support Brent prices around the mid-$80s, we estimate. Hence, we leave our price forecasts unchanged.
Needless to say, there are risks to either side of this forecast. During the summer, Saudi Arabia curtailed exports significantly, falling to ~5.6 mb/d in Sept, down from ~7.4 mb/d during April. This gave a considerable jolt to oil markets, and would do so again if repeated.
At the same time, OPEC market share is under long-term pressure, and history also warns of the risk this eventually poses. If OPEC ever were to decide to reclaim its lost market share, downside risk to prices would also be significant.
But unlikemany he is not day trading which tells me what I need to know
"in genel for example why are insiders buyers buying up all the shares at these levels, just to lose money? "
So far Bilgin Grup Doğalgaz A.Ş. has lost £1.1 million on its purchases (-19%). They've bought 5.89 million shares (roughly 2% of the company) at an average of 98p versus a current price of 79p (versus a low of 74.06p).
Date Number of Shares Price
29-Mar 16,911 1.092474
29-Mar 220,000 1.168145
3-Apr 213,488 1.131264
2-May 300,000 1.0867
2-May 100,000 1.095
30-May 750,000 1.1108
30-May 25,000 1.11
1-Jun 450,000 1.118
1-Jun 100,000 1.117
7-Jun 630,000 1.2
18-Oct 2,976,747 0.83
18-Oct 107,000 0.8577
I'm liking the amount of focus now on the dispute between Baghdad and Ebril, previously it's been hidden behind a smokescreen of Turkey and the fine dispute, which they appear to have shelved to sort out ongoing, both PM's are now very under the spotlight and there's little room for offloading blame now.
⭐
Interview Transcript: BBC's Maryam Moshiri and Kurdistan Region PM Barzani. 2 hours ago
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/33214-%27I-will-not-give-up-Kurdish-constitutional-rights-to-please-anyone,%27-says-PM-Barzani
If I had a quid for every time I saw Max say he was getting out immediately, I wouldn’t need to wait for GKP to get back above 200. If you’re so sure “the new world order” is taking over and GKP will get screwed during the process, sell up and head to a more stable stock, we’ll really miss your input here for a fraction of a second, if at all. If you haven’t the courage of your convictions, don’t bother investing, leave it to the dedicated capitalists.
Woohoo The power of pennies.
Sure, boys, those shorts must be closed so keep posting your "views". I guess everyone must make their living somehow. Just so you know, I am not selling a single share till the pipeline is open and GKP will be much much higher than this sp.
Well, going away from this chat as there's nothing you can say that's worth a penny.
Good luck all LTH.
Patience..it will happen.
ST
Boris is there.
https://shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/Masoud-Barzani-Boris-Johnson-call-for-a-constitutional-approach-to-Erbil-Baghdad-disputes
https://www.youtube.com/live/81o4tenkv7q? about an hour in oil is mentioned, "the problem is now political, if the strait of hormuz was closed (because of gaza) an agreement would be found overnight, i can't see why they can't do that now" people on the periphery are getting really ****ed.
Look at the result from that meeting it just gave an opportunity for another pump and dump article. this should be against the law.
It is evident now that for almost one year we have been subject to market manipulation
It's not investing. It's gambling.
And this site was/is full of numpties who said I over reacted.
I was right. They were utterly wrong.
But right or wrong, because I followed emotional attachment and insecure in my judgement, ie not wanting to part with potential profit, we are now all on the same leaky ship.
And being in this company and club is a daily insult yo my own intelligence. I look forward to parting ways immensely.