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Here's a thought for everyone .........
Was the November production number down because they were squeezed out at the time by DNO/Genel upping there production substantially from mid November ?
And the slight rise in December is the market starting to adjust to more supply at cheap prices compared to where they would be on international markets ?
----------------------------
Off topic, - If anyone did take a look at IPEL yesterday & bought ahead of them going Ex-Dividend then you've been handsomely rewarded so far as the bid price is now higher than yesterday's purchase price & you get the £0.559 per share dividend on 12th Jan.
GLA
LOTM
This operational and corporate update outlines a comprehensive strategy aimed at ensuring financial resilience and operational flexibility. The company demonstrates a commitment to preserving liquidity through measures such as maximizing local sales, stringent cost control, and active management of accounts payable. The fluctuation in sales volumes is acknowledged, attributed to increased competition in the region and seasonal effects on crude demand.
Financially, GKP exhibits strength with a healthy cash balance of $85 million, no debt, and the ability to cover estimated monthly costs comfortably. The company's emphasis on maintaining a monthly capex and cost run rate aligns with their prudent approach to financial management.
The update underscores optimism regarding the potential restart of pipeline exports, citing ongoing negotiations between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Government of Iraq. Despite uncertainties in local market demand, GKP remains proactive in pursuing opportunities to increase sales.
Additionally, the board's commitment to diversity targets and the ongoing non-executive director search reflect a balanced approach to governance. The pace of this process is controlled to align with the company's current priorities of cost reduction and liquidity preservation.
In summary, Gulf Keystone Petroleum's analysis suggests a resilient and adaptable stance in navigating industry challenges, with a focus on financial stability, operational efficiency, and governance considerations.
That's all for now.
Global oil demand growth has slowed “drastically” in the fourth quarter, while continued strong supply by countries outside Opec+ will be enough to meet all of the consumption growth projected next year, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
Demand will be almost 400,000 barrels a day lower in the final quarter of 2023 than previously anticipated by the west’s energy watchdog, taking annual global demand to 101.7mn b/d in 2023, as high interest rates darken the outlook for economic growth.
Slowing demand comes as record supply from the US and rising output from producers like Guyana will see non-Opec supply growth of 1.2mn b/d in 2024, the IEA said. This is higher than the 1.1mn b/d forecast for demand growth, which is weighed down by a slowing economy and the end of the post-Covid rebound in consumption.
Think you're getting BOPD (average sales per day) and total monthly sales mixed up? Still, even on the current average sales monthly costs are covered with a small profit, and Baghdad are loosing big bucks.
Yesterday’s share price fall probably owes much to the fall in crude sales when most were expecting a month on month increase. Personally I don’t believe this makes too much difference in terms of GKP’s long term value which is reliant upon the pipeline being reopened with a fair contract. In the meantime with costs covered and decent cash reserves I for one will wait until common sense prevails. As for today’s small bounce, while it could be a ‘dead cat’ and it might be market related, it could also be the bottom has been found.
Patience Required
Yes , good points to remember all our costs are covered, we have a very healthy cash balance, a very healthy invoiced amount of cash to be received, when the Federal and Krg Governments can agree how this will be paid,
Any talk of the pipeline to open negotiations back on and this could jump back towards £1.30 range,
Confirmation of new contracts and pipeline opening, £2 upwards, imo
one to hold and sit patiently.
How Much have the Iraqi government lost in revenue so far this year £8 Billion? and rising each day
Rns: “ Gross average sales of c.28,800 bopd via trucking and pipeline between the date of our last market update, 25 September, and 11 December, reflecting: c.30,000 bopd in September, c.37,200 bopd in October, c.21,500 bopd in November and c.21,900 bopd between 1-11 December”
They’ve sold 21900 bopd in December already by the 11th which covers the monthly capes. Anything they are selling now until end of the month goes to profit.
Apart from November the other months sales have been pretty good.
There was a lot of talk in November about the pipeline opening , I wonder if they slowed down the sales expecting the pipe to open.
It’s a high risk share for sure but the upshot is huge if the pipeline opens.
Https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/oil-and-gas/crescent-petroleum-plans-to-invest-1bln-in-iraq-tuqp7wu5?amp=1
New investment in Kurdistan
Worth buying a few at current levels, did i read somewhere that talks are on the agenda in the next week or so?
Soon back to penny a share (in old money).
Expecting one of the ruling families to take us out of this misery for a pocketfull of their small change.
The "sell" was above £3 in June 22 and again above £2 in March of 23. The "buy" is lower than here.
Let's see if you can hold firm on quietening down the drama.
If I recall on April 4th you, and many others, called me dramatic. I called all this. I won't share anymore as I just sit and watch now, but sell was anything above 1.65 and hold money until the oil was definitely running.
Even if the pipeline opens tomorrow you'd get in lower than 1 65.
This is a charity now
"if there is a market for it" and not with such oppressed costs
Eventually they can do a lot more - with investment and with an open export pipeline...
Gkp has the capacity to produce 55 kbopd and possibly more if there is market for it. Gkp has already proved it can do so, and that is a fact!
Best Regards ValueS
In fact, the RNS was worse than I was expecting. I had modeled 35k per month for the 4th quarter.
I've been very consistent in arguing that the company had considerable payables that needed normalising (and that the reason why there hasn't been an RNS for a while is because there hasn't been a material change to report).
No. Just commonsense.
just wondering if you had access to 'privileged' information putup? you seemed very confident and ****y in your predictions and rebuttals. as always.
we are highly suspicious of the 2 shorting hedge funds here also. not hard for them to have an inside agent and man on the ground in kurdistan.
Fair doos PUTUP. You called it correctly. I can see this dragging on a while yet. I think I've had enough personally though, I'll be selling up on the next round of BS that gets rolled out. Hopefully @ evens but we'll see!
Well, well, well. No surprises there for me. Whatever happened to the rampers predicted 55k per month production and steady cash build to over $100m? The parade of muppets have been shown to be just that.
Could be worse, you could be invested in HE1!
"No where close to 55k bopd. Poor performance to drop to 21k."
Volumes of local sales very disappointing, even worse than most conservative estimates. Now the shorts making money.
Best Regards ValueS
No where close to 55k bopd. Poor performance to drop to 21k.
On top if that they had said they would drop costs to 4 million per month.
Of course Iraq was unimpressed if we can survive on 6 million that we were clearing hundreds of millions in profit for dividends.
Unfortunately for us we are no longer in the 1960's.
"Additionally, the board's commitment to diversity targets". WTF?!
As this nonsense is in any way pertinent to the company's survival!
Remains strong at $85 Million, local sales covering costs, all i need to know right now, sitting tight and waiting for the pipe line to re-open,
Done wonders for the Genel share price which isn't anywhere near the £10 it listed as , be 93% down if you'd gone in from the start.
I'll continue to accumulate here whilst they still continue the charade of pipeline discussions.
I bet they are regretting even starting the court case now and are to stubborn to back down so as you were whilst the losses mount wars it now 8 billion?