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I’ve upped my recommendation owing to the high level of the recent announcements, but the most encouraging thing that has now emerged is that an actual date has been stated for Erdogan’s visit; April 22. (Rudaw)
Personally I can’t imagine a situation where two leaders that have been at loggerheads for so long on issues such as oil, water and border security, will meet and NOT make the grand announcement of an agreement and with the price of oil being do high, plus the recent pressure that has been applied regarding the delayed payments in U.S dollars for Russian oil,
Belgrano. I can see where you are coming from, there's been many empty words here for a year, and the corruption isn't going to go away any time soon. But I do believe the point of optimal pressure has been reached, salaries have been paid and there's allegedly an agreement about salaries, voiced by the people at the top not a minister, coupled with the greater picture of rising oil prices, Russian production being hammered, the water issue which interestingly isn't being talked about much, together with the US weighing in, it seems to me that an agreement is closer than before, though I do know that anything can happen in politics and there's no dividends until the ink is dry in the parchment.
Mr doom and gloom I can only hope that your prediction “200 fruitless meetings and the pipeline remains closed for the remainder of this year “ is as accurate as your last 90p guess because I’ve put my money where my mouth was and made a trade @ 108 on Friday in the hope if not the expectation that I’ll make another 15 / 20 % this week.
No problem if I’m wrong because @ 35 dollars a barrel 108 p and a reasonable profit margin that might allow the payment of a small dividend this year, GKP represents good long term value in my pension pot. Patience will prevail but If I’m wrong I’ll eat humble pie, will you?
Question for clarity and HELP?
Presently I see there are only 2 pipelines present from Iraq
1 is the "Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline, also known as the Iraq–Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline"
This is the pipeline that carrys the disputed Kurdish /Turkey payments...correct?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Ceyhan_Oil_Pipeline
2 is the pipeline Kirkuk–Baniyas pipeline that has been shut down since 2003 and runs into Syria
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk%E2%80%93Baniyas_pipeline
Is there another pipeline that Iraq is reportedly repairing that avoids Kurdistan supply's? I only see the Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline and Turkey have stated they have made their repairs and its ready to restart ONCE the disputes are resolved.
Note i have found that there has been other pipelines talked about that could go into Jordan and Saudi but they have not been built correct?
Clarity from more informed posters would be greatly appreciated.
Rgds Sft
"In principle there is agreement through which we hope to solve this problem".
Well those key words were echoed over a year ago as well as yesterday. Iraq knows its got to tweak its rules to enable higher payments to the IOC's, instead of blaming them for the delays because they refuse to work in effect at a financial loss.
So regardless, of outcome, have the rules been even tweaked to allow flexibility on payments...nope not a jot, its no accident, just play lip service and do nothing.
Its clear deliberate disguised policy which they cannot publicly admit to having, as its clear persecution of a minority population on grounds of belief and race. Once you see that everything is crystal.
Waste of time even meeting with them.
FFS - Erbil gets 17% of the national budget (any shortfall will be met by us IOCs of course), all oil goes via SOMO, Turkey should offset the fees for using pipeline until the $1.4b bill is paid down, we IOCs can whistle for our missing payments….. what’s the hidden agenda then ??
We have heard all those before . Talk is cheap and talk all it is with nothing accually happening.
Another 200 meetings to go yet . The pipeline isn't going to open this year . Local sales at $35 are fine untill IOCs get their terms agreed.
It seems that an agreement regarding the payment of civil servant salaries is in place (Rudaw ) possibly with temporary revenue from higher oil prices, and the news (also Rudaw) that they have repaired and tested one Iraq - Turkey pipeline that will certainly require a permanent agreement with Turkey, I doubt that they would agree to open one and not the other, ours. Can we at long last believe that a final grand announcement will be made during the forthcoming Washington meeting, when I do believe that Iraq will need something to offer Biden / the U.S. If not I can only hope that Erdogan will turn up this time and share the glory of an agreement. In Baghdad. That said and taking account of what has actually happened during the past year, nothing other than ‘hot air,’ I won’t hold my breath.
While patience is still required I’d rather be long than short GKP today.
Bullcrap. Utter,utter bullcrap.
Translated using google translate:
“The President of the Kurdistan Region, Nechirvan Barzani, confirmed on Saturday that an initial agreement had been reached on the oil file, which is one of the most prominent outstanding problems between Baghdad and the region.”
Hopefully the IOCs have had input rather than something that will be foisted on them.
https://www.shafaq.com/ar/%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A9/%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%BA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%AF-%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%82-%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A
B-Bay, I think the converse may be that a Kurd home would remove them from the destabilising effect they have, and may yet have, on the countries they currently occupy as a minority ethnic group.
This would have the effect of stabilising the ME area.
The negatives are: no access to the sea, how much land would their current host countries be prepared to donate to encourge them to leave ?
The whole ME area is bogged down in potential instability due to too many religious factions - and augmented by the overlay of tribalism.
Invstrat,
one of the arguments against the creation of an independent Kurdistan must surely be the hugely destablising effect this would then have on N. Syria and (mostly Southern) Turkey (leaving aside the Kurdish minority in NW Iran). Both areas have large numbers of "Kurdish" people - many of whom actively support the creation of a new Kurdish state in the ME.
The resulting euphoria that at least one part of their diaspora had finally managed it would, IMO, set the whole area aflame with unforeseeable consequences.
I don't think the USA would welcome that in the near future.
If regional war comes to pass - surely Barzani will grab the chance of freeing his peoples from the tyranny, financial exploitation and oppression they have had to suffer under Baghdad, and he could self-appoint as ‘el Presidenti’ of his own country (could call it ‘Barzanistan’ ?) and maybe then things will calm down and export lines will magically open up and we will get a fair contract with occassional payments for goods delivered ?
‘The whole region is close to blowing’
Has been my whole life, and my father’s, and my grandfather’s.
You don’t invest in this region if you wan’t quiet life though do you?
There will not be a war between the US and Iran.
You’re living in cloud cuckoo land mate (or short).
The whole region is close to blowing
Let me try out this thought experiment on the chat:
Israel has just broken two cast iron diplomatic rules, one - it bombed an Iranian diplomatic building i.e. a 3rd party sovereign state; two, that building was in another 3rd party sovereign country. These are global big no-nos.
Iran was the target country. Israel did this deliberately to incite Iran to strike directly back and hence bring the US into Israel's defence.
Iran has not fallen for this trap. Word is that Iran will strike back asymmetrically using allies in Syria and in Iraq. Kurdistan is known to support Israel with oil. Western businesses in KRG would appear to be in between a rock and a hard place if such asymmetric replies happen in KRG.
Discuss.
Wrong.
It is the main pipeline that they alleged was damaged in an earthquake last year.
Why would they be testing it now...?
Https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq/President-Barzani-to-attend-an-extraordinary-meeting-of-State-Administration-Alliance#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20source%2C%20the,%2DSudani%2C%20and%20other%20leaders.
“The source explained that the agenda of the meeting will focus on political agreements and finding solutions to the outstanding issues between Baghdad and Kurdistan.”
At the bottom of the article it lists the main protagonists within the coalition.
Which ones would be happy if the outstanding issues never get resolved?
Which ones are unhappy about his proposed upcoming visit to the USA?
Do they have sufficient fire power to call for Sudani’s resignation?
Will they simply let him have his say then try to block progress at ministerial level?
Their problem is his popularity within the population as a whole, if the surveys can be believed, is very high and cuts across political boundaries.
Yea, I would go back to the Flat Earth conspiracy theories mate.
Not been here in a long long time, but if geo politics is anything to go by I would see Turkey taking Kurds out.
War is brewing and I can't believe this, or any if these companies, have any chance of surviving.
Netanyahu is a psycho, Israel is a genocide state.
If they invade Rafah... jesus
Inv the general population will care about as soon as the UK one does. How many families do you think own all the UK wealth ha ha ha
Nope. Different pipeline.