Ok it’s all conjecture. The placing would not be enough to buy all the bonds, but could theoretically take out 20%-25% of which you hold the voting rights. After the vote they are cancelled at face value which goes straight to bottom line.
Now I know what Goldilocks felt like in the woods - completely lost? That all sounds a bit convoluted but anythings possible here and as i say I am lost. Is it a, cough, scam? Why would there be a vote if the bonds were cancelled?
TSC1 Very nice idea. Alternatively when GKP appointed the book runners, they might also have been instructed to buy the bonds. Which trade at a considerable discount to face. Then utilise the proceeds to cancel the bonds and the coupon. Therefore facilitating a favourable vote.
If it was World War Two and Mr. Churchill was behind it, you could probably get the Early Production Facility which is in storage, in kit form, not too far from Shaikan transported to site and brought into action very quickly. How long would it take Gulf? I doubt if it would take the girls and boys in Kurdistan very long to DO the work, but how long it would take the dead wood in the London office to even decide to do it, I don't know.
That's an interesting one. Qara Dagh was believed by many to be a potential 'monster' but the operator never got quite as deep as was intended...though the absence of fractures suggests that it might not have made any difference.
This is why Fracture Porosity is the KEY to Shaikan. If it wasn't fractured - or had the very low levels of fracturing e.g. 0.1% that was inexplicably suggested in the CPR by ERC Equipoise as a possibility - it wouldn't have flowed at commercial rates, and Shaikan would have been a write-off.
Baba Gurgur means "Father of Flames" in Kurdish; it struck oil on 14 October 1927. The flow was 95.000 bopd for nine days, and the pressure was so great that the valve on the Christmas tree couldn't be closed until the pressure had dropped. This became Kirkuk. Many other wells were drilled in other parts of Iraq from 1927 to 1937, but all without success until Ain Zaleh came in.
The reason that Kirkuk is so good is because of the porosity, which varies from 4% to 36%, which is exceptionally high for a carbonate. The reason for this high porosity is that it is both primary and secondary. There's the inter-granular and inter-skeletal Matrix Porosity, overlaid with tectonic fractures and chemical dissolution.
Indeed, it's believed there are huge caverns full of liquid oil in Kirkuk.
Those who invest in Gulf and don't want to delve into fractures, vugs and caverns are IMO getting a seriously incomplete picture. Qara Dagh could have been a second Kirkuk - the rock volume is big enough. But it was a dud because it lacked fractures.
Todd Kozel did *very* well to get Shaikan for Gulf.
Forgetting takeover speculation etc - tis a complex wedge this one - it has had many scratching their heads. Obviously as prices get lower it's getting squeezed into the converging lines, however the bottom support line just gets tweaked as prices keep falling, at least it's not so steep now - unfortunately, as is a price trading range bound in a falling wedge we 'could' still see lower, RSI is just on support, will we get a small bounce tomorrow? - I can sure see 44p ish but breaking it and closing above will be tough as it ties in with resistance of both exponential and simple 50 day moving average, I also have two sets of short term fib extensions looking at possible short term upside - 46p intraday seems possible but closing above 44p and 42p even (gap resistance and previous old support 42/42.25p will be tough without something 'JUICY'.......and then yeah a breakout could be a 'Biggie'......just a mull!
Too few fractures at Qara Dagh but oil present...not commercial
"Oil shows have been encountered over a gross column of approximately 955 meters and open hole drill stem tests were conducted in the Shiranish Formation with cased hole tests completed in the overlying Upper Cretaceous Tanjero Formation. All zones after acid stimulation successfully tested light sweet gravity oil (ranging from 43 to 46 API @ 60°F) but at non-commercial flow rates. Reservoir permeability and encountering low fracture densities are the principal causes for poor flow rates."
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