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I don’t believe it matters how many shares are in issue it’s the demand that will force the price upwards, driven by how fast this company will move.
Redirons, the Lassonde curve is not plotted against share price, it's against value. MCAP is a better measure to look at. Far more share in issue than previous ATHs which, IMO, are a pipe dream for some time.
Hi Texlax
I have done some maths on Ggp owning the 100%, what it comes down to is the copper is the profit.
The higher the average grade of copper is the higher the profit
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=904
With everyone concentrating on the gold price the copper price has been sneaking upwards.
It’s very significant.
Havieron copper production average has a grade of 0.6%.
Copper price $4.08/lb (US)
For 100%
Production 3mt pa @0.6% =18,000t or 39.6mlbs US
@ 4.08 = US$161.5m pa
Copper record high $4.88 =$193.25m pa
0.8% grade = $216.25m @$4.08
0.8% grade =$258.6m @$4.88
1% grade = $269m pa @ $4.08
1% grade = $322m pa @ 4.88
Gold
3mt pa x 3g/t divided x 31.1 x $2186 per oz $632m
Less AISC (Ggp’s) =$306m
So $326m left
$75-100m to process and transport
Less additional admin expenses and capex $100m (guess).
Profit on gold roughly US$100m + (depending on gold grades)
Remember gold pays for everything copper is the profit
Our current market cap is AUD 675m.
With 100% of HAV, first full year earning will be in the region of AUD 600m at today’s gold prices. Caveat this is gross, no debt repayments etc.
Fortescue and Northern Star have price to earning ratios of 14 and 21, respectively. Do the math.
With 100% of HAV, figures of 50p+ become quite realistic in relatively short time frame.
Sorry Bamps - you can tell that I hold your opinion in high regard and after a few glasses of red I just had a little wobbly when you said it was time to come back to earth with a bump. I have no problem in waiting for GGP to achieve all of its full potential, even if that benefits my son and grandchildren more than me and my good lady. That said, I was reading too much into your posts as to how the SP may perform as I am not expecting it to take 10 years to see ATH’s again. I know you never make predictions about SP performance so I shouldn’t have had a wobbly at all!! I enjoyed the red wine all the same and apologies for causing confusion!!
Hmmm where have I said it will take 10 years to get to 30-40p?
What I’m saying if you increase the tonnage the grades reduce and you need more tonnage to get to the same revenues as if the 3mt plan was adhered too.
I’ve no idea of where the share price will end up but it will be a lot higher than it is now
Hi Bamps - I think a large number of us are waiting to see previous ATH’s being exceeded as per the Lassonde Curve and personally I was always prepared to hold GGP share into perpetuity as a legacy bequeathed to my family, but I wasn’t of the opinion that it will take 10 years to get back to the 30/40p’s - are you saying it will? Thanks.
Hi Redirons when you say what we are expecting or what has been posted on Ggpchat?
The PFS mining plan was for 2mt pa, the original decline design was to achieve 2mt through this decline design.
The latest design of the decline is to achieve 3mt.
This was achieved by adding numerous passing bays along the length.
Increasing the tonnage out at this stage is not viable, it would need a hoist or a conveyor decline.
The 2mt and 3mt are based on the SLOS mine plan this has been optimised with the shape of the orebody.
The increase to 3mt was due to the addition of the breccia and a small increase in the sulphides.
To get an increase in the mining plan would need further zones to be added in, this can’t happen until the SLOS operation is complete.
Sorry Bamps - I’m having a muzzy day - are you saying GGP are 10 years away from providing the kind of returns we are all hoping for (vis a vis the Lassonde Curve)? Thanks.
People on here do like to mark up a good old yarn, though they see it for what it is.
Hi MH01
Please see my post on the mining plan thread.
6mt DFS you could be looking at 10 years time.
Time to come back to earth with a bump
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=327&sid=ecdf74960c285fdb930752cab1f790ea
Why don’t you respond to the writer on GGP Chat?
“… at the first opportunity - you’d secure 100% of Havieron and Telfer? I expect this is most probably done or close. As it’s been in his sights from the beginning.
Then - what a week after securing 100% drop a whopping SLOS DFS and whip up the market with a dripping roast of a 6mt DFS.
Next - Get GDX on board and get major fund managers on board.
Then, within 12 months, do a $1bn raise on the ASX…”
Two questions from me:
1. How will the 70% + Telfer + 100% of the remaining costs to production be paid for, 12 months BEFORE doing the $1bn raise on the ASX?
2. If a 6mt DFS can be released just a week after acquiring the 70% (to whip up the market and drive an immediate re-pricing of the 100%) why would NEM not do that now ahead of selling it?
Those who have been in for several years know that when momentum hits, this share moves fast. One day the market will reawaken, realising that funding is in place, the decline will be nearing the ore body, processing plant ready to go, etc. And this is with 30%..
If we do get back 100%, the figures become eye watering. At a 3MT operation, todays gold price, AISC $800, 3.3 g/t grade and 85% recovery, the annual gross profit is likely around today’s market cap. Mind boggling. Rick Rule talks about gambling with explorers to get your 10 bagger, but if (‘when’ IMO) the pieces fall in place, you’re potentially sitting on a derisked developer with the potential to 10x if we do in fact buy back the farm. Still with all to play for in terms of growing the resource, increasing MTPA, organic growth, etc etc.
Some thoughts to mull over and contemplate. Hopefully the outcome, whatever that is, is most beneficial to the current SP. Take out the uncertainty as noted on today's Sunday Roast podcast.
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=903
"If you were Shaun - And you had ‘plans’ to be king maker and King Pin of the Paterson :- to consolidate the Paterson with Wyloo , by leveraging Havieron and GGPs LROR¦ ….Then what would you do?
Well - surely - at the first opportunity - you’d secure 100% of Havieron and Telfer? I expect this is most probably done or close. As it’s been in his sights from the beginning.
Then - what a week after securing 100% drop a whopping SLOS DFS and whip up the market with a dripping roast of a 6mt DFS.
Next - Get GDX on board and get major fund managers on board.
Then, within 12 months, do a $1bn raise on the ASX to expand everything and fund the build out a 6mt block cave in the northern Breccia... and let in the big ASX pension funds.
Before you know it Hav is the 2nd biggest mine in Australia and Greatland is the 2nd/3rd biggest producer on the ASX. Plus don’t forget the nickel. It has a huge future (as a Wyloo knows.)
And if that DFS was for say 8mt that’s going to shock the market. Double boom basically!!! Shaun’s been in the job for what 3years now. Time to show them the metal mate.
What do you think Paul Hallam, Otto Richter, and jimmy Wilson been working on for the past 18months..? (Because it ain’t two MREs is it - what? - a month’s work - tops?)."
Https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard/status/1771930123047968798
I would genuinely like to see those who have continued to hold catch a break.
I hope it works out 4U.
Ace. Good afternoon. The terms of any fundraise, equity/debt, encompassing development and acquisition costs, in a nutshell. Not talking it up or down and I may ‘miss the boat’ others are in, because it may move quickly. But there might be a window of opportunity - or not.
That’s what I’m hoping for advanced negotiations and decisions being made, rather than time delays waiting on votes!
The sooner we start getting the gold out, the sooner we can start funding our exploration ( phase 2)
All the best Ben
From the Sunday Roast the broadcasters seemed to infer to purchase now as it may be too late once any promising news was confirmed. I stated previously this could rerate immediately and the MMs may not let you buy many shares at that time.
What RU waiting for peppers.
The stage has been set; trust the pilot - or not. You do have a choice.
Decisions being made as we speak.
Sunday roast
https://youtu.be/ZpFw__xDLNQ?si=qq_eDR_eRDEZzaJB