You are right, long term trend is up until proven otherwise. I looked a bit more at Brent on a weekly chart. After we had that pause candle on the daily chart I wanted to try to get a better understanding of why it paused yesterday.
So if in doubt look further back on charts! Checking out the weekly chart you can see the $47/$48 area has given support on two occasions during the last year or so. In fact from Aug until Nov last year $47/$48 acted as support for best part of 4 months so no wonder this weeks action as closed out slap bang on that former support now resistance. Whenever you have an area of weeks upon weeks of price action as you do with $47/$48 it's to be expected that its not going to just bash the door down and run up the stairs on the first attempt. Its a strong area of former support and for the uptrend to continue Brent has to have weekly closes above the $47/$48 level if it does then $54 is the next strong resistance. With a weekly close of candle struggling to stay above that strong resistance level of $47/$48 it is only natural to have higher expectations of a pull back to try to find a low point of which to attack that area again.
We never know exactly when the big investors are going to start pulling the trigger but big investors love to target previous support/resistance areas and have taken it to the $47/$48 area. They could now push this to $54 - They could start the drop to $38 - Who knows! but most important thing is to be prepared for either way and to try to understand why is this happening?
All this pressure on your goodself. Peeps wanting, nay, demanding answers from the charts. What you,ve brought here is more than food for thought. Make stuff interesting you do. Lady Gen ended £1.32 but the long weekend makes it dangerous ground upon which we tread. Slight oil retrace ok by me but Trendy McTrendface says this is a worthwhile investment. My prediction for year end is a modest £2.78 but so deserves to be more if and when sentiment changes. Good luck all with investments and best of health to all.
Resistance at 138p is a potential area that if price cannot break through in a convincing fashion would bring about the start of a pull back. I mentioned a couple of days ago about price being above the hourly 200 moving average for a good amount of hours on Genel. The longer price cant close (daily) above 138 a move back down to the 200ma (100p area) is on the cards.
Brent had an exciting afternoon but has left a potential reversal daily candle: http://invst.ly/1md1j - It is an indecision candle..a pause ...a look to the coming 2 or 3 daily candles to confirm if a drop is on the cards or a continuation of the uptrend. (Confusion in market, is it running out of steam? Time to profit take? etc)
Summary: 138p is key resistance - Brent price action today shows signs of at the very least a pause - Hourly 200ma on Genel will soon enough act as a magnet to attract price. 100p and im in lol
As I have some time let me explain some of my points on why I am very bullish on Genel
1. Oil price - Genels value has been hit hard because of the low oil price, in 2 ways because of what it is paid by Kurdistan and also what is owed in the past, now that the oil price is balancing, income should be greatly improved.
2. Bilgin Grup has taken a 10% holding in the past month signals that something must be happening positively in the background
3. Deal about to be complete to supply Turkey with gas, will be more gain for Turkey than for Genel therefore I am confident this will go through
4. Shorts are being reduced and quickly because the big funds realise that Genel has no way to fall
5. Kurdistan is becoming more safe by the end, true Isis is still present but everyday Kurdistan make advancements
6. Great M+A opportunity and personally I think they may either acquire Gulfs great assets or before that be taken over themselves and as the oil price increases the more chance of this happening.
My Advice is BUY, Genel should be at least £2.50 with these oil prices and we are merely on £1.30 so a long way to go, happy to enjoy the ride.
Genel plans to export up to 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year from the fields, located some 300 km (186 miles) from Turkey and with gas reserves of around 11 trillion cubic feet. It has said it expects the fields to take around three years to develop and to start production in early 2020. Anyone have an idea what 20Bn cubic meters of gas is worth ? Cuba
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.