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HUM CEO updates on the Yanfolila Gold Project now fully funded.


Genel Energy Share Chat (GENL)



Share Price: 73.00Bid: 72.75Ask: 73.25Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Genel Energy
Spread: 0.50Spread as %: 0.69%Open: 75.75High: 76.25Low: 72.25Yesterday’s Close: 73.00


Share Discussion for Genel Energy


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dmore
Posts: 172
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
gas field value
Today 05:27
http://www.epmag.com/noble-sells-3-stake-12-billion-tamar-field-1018036
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamar_gas_field
so a gas field with 7tcf of size, in deep water is worth 12 $B

so how much is a gas field 11tcf on land with 100% of oil, and liquid revenue receiveable to IOC 25$B
 
Whiteace
Posts: 269
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
RE: Whiteace
Wed 23:50
Hawkey

Don't worry I don't trust what I can't see ! An ur over confidence does disturb me ! But u seem like a nice guy !!!!!! Nite nite
Lemming99
Posts: 76
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:73.00
41m cents
Wed 23:48
41m cents would be 11.6 pennies per share. Would be nice if that landed before Christmas. That should give some of the shorters a nasty shock.
Lemming99
Posts: 76
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:73.00
RE: All making the right noises....
Wed 23:40
thanks Hawkey, that's interesting

so "The KRG announced in August it plans to pay around $100 million to oil companies for their previous operations in the region. But although Erbil has paid regularly since then, the debt has grown to nearly $1 billion largely due to expansion of oil production."

So we've had $14.54m historic payments in May-Aug (4 months), I don't think he can be referring to that level of repayment.

We're owed $412m from the H1 RNS so dividing that by something less than $1bn, e.g. $950m means that we have 41-43% of the historic debt. (wow, didn't realise we had such a big share).

So.. does that mean, and I quote "Through credible reform efforts, we want to show you by actions, not words, that we are a worthy partner"

sounds like we might be in line to get $41m to $43m of the historic repayment. I wonder if that might be tomorrow given the timing of two payments to co-incide with the beginning of the London conference... one can only hope...
Hawkey47
Posts: 1,902
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
Lemming99
Wed 23:35
Class act.

Thank you very much for info.

Hawkey
Lemming99
Posts: 76
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:73.00
View Thread (2)
updated FCF analysis part 2
Wed 23:28
continued:

What would you value something at that produces potentially £157,000 365 days a year. Using the debt markets we could require a 12% return, but the equity has more responsibility and is lower down the pecking order, so lets say you'd want a 20% return. If so, that's a valuation of roughly £1.

Bottom line, if oil goes up from 41 to 49 that's a 19.5% increase using the above figures that equates to a 20% increase in our revenues. If oil did average $55 in H1 next year and using all of the above assumptions, and if we should track the op (which I think I've just started to prove), then our sp should be 12% higher at 112p (based on the "I want a 20% return thing".)

GLA
Lemming99
Posts: 76
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:73.00
View Thread (2)
updated FCF analysis part 1
Wed 23:26
So I couldn't wait until the weekend! Here are some predictions. In case you're worried about my predictions the last two predictions on 21st Nov were within 1% of the actual two RNS announcments made on 5th Dec for September revenues (but then I was working on published data and a couple of guesses).

Genel's H1 report was to 30 June 2016. Looking at http://moneyweek.com/prices-news-charts/oil/ it looks to me like the average oil price was $41 during this period.

The average oil price in H2 looks like it will be $49. So how does this translate into a prediction. Well it's a bit murky and we get a contractor monthly entitlement. I will save you all the workings (unless someone wants to see them). We've got two data points from Taq Taq that help us to work it out. And usefully one is at 41.48 op (31 May RNS) and the other is at 48.34 op (27 July RNS). Assuming that there isn't a "fixed payment" and that all the pricing and revenues are variable, we can infer that per volume we get 18.8% more money when the op is at 48.34 compared to 41.48. Adjusting to 41 and 49 it's about 2.5% more, So I guess with rounding errors we could go for 20% more revenues per volume from Taq Taq in H2 than in H1; solely down to the op and not capex.

So.. assuming capex the same
assuming Tawke is similar to Taq Taq
assuming most of these numbers are variable and not fixed

What does that mean?

We had a free cash flow of 33.1m in H1, we could have a free cash flow of 20% more in H2, i.e. 39.72. So a total potential FCF of 72.82 which at today's exchange rate of 1.27 is GBP57.34m. so each day we add a net 157k into the bank or pay off debt or declare it as a profit (unlikely as we've hopefully got sensible accountants).

So that works out to a FCF figure of 20.6p per share per annum. I'm sorry if I've been boring people about the 19p per share FCF for the year, but hooray, we now have a new figure to talk about 20.6p.

So how do you get that 20.6p? buy something for 73p, and if nothing changes (no ancient debt repayment, no oil finds, no major things) then you'll get that each year. That's a 28% return, albeit not in cash, but real cash in Genel's bank and should trickle into the share price.

What are we going to do with all these $73m's each year (all other things being equal). Well, in 2.5 years we might need to pay off our debt. Net debt is $237m. That leaves us just 55m short. But with our debt trading at 82cents on the dollar we should have no issue rolling it over. We've financed our operations (and KRG of course) at 7.5% interest. It seems that a company with the same four letters in it's ticker and 42bn more on it's market capitalisation is having to pay 12% to raise funds to invest in the region. All in all and whilst we may need to pay more to roll over the debt, we're still sitting on a profitable piece of ground, and who would expect to pay off debt for capex in such a short time frame?
Hawkey47
Posts: 1,902
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:0.00
All making the right noises....
Wed 23:25
BTFATH1
Posts: 9,134
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
Lemming
Wed 22:34
Excellent post and certainly stacks up, the krg have simply not got the money unless they get part of the 5.4 billion loan given to Baghdad. They need oil & gas quick to support their economy and the sooner the better we could be getting some serious akerage/proven reserves.

We all want to see a rise here and many of us are astonished it got to this level again. Here is to £1 pre Christmas it did 14% in one day very recently.

Gla
Worzel
Posts: 506
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
They reckon
Wed 22:25
Another 2 month to defeat IS in Mosul, but defeat them they will, there will be many rejoicing including GENL shareholders when this happens. Can see this around 60p-80p till then. IMO




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