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Dear Bernie,
Thank you for your helpful observations.
Its a difficult call yet I am pleased to be a shareholder although, relative to you, I only have 9 years experience.
I am impressed by the family and the team and am excited by the steadfast way they are building the business. I am hopeful that the new activities with Ducoya, Easat and the AVD battery extinguishers will complement the growth potential of the foundries and the defence related operations.
In today's world, moderate, continuing dividend increases will be welcomed and I'd rather have significant capital growth potential with a 2% dividend which grows than a higher yield which is difficult to sustain.
Best regards
Well, maybe selling a few yesterday was not one of my best decisions !
WestOfEngland
Partly because of the lack of coverage and the controlling family stake Goodwin's always been a nightmare to value ( I've been in to a greater or lesser extent for ~ 20 years ), though the family's stake allows them to take a very long term view !
I don't think we're currently overvalued ... I'm assuming eps for this FY will be ~250p which, at the current share price of £63 will put us on a pe of ~25. With growth at 20% that's a PEG of ~1.25. If growth continues at ~20% that's not cheap, but it's not obviously expensive either.
It is putting a lot of faith in continuing high growth though. If that growth drops to ( say ) 15% then it starts to look a bit different.
Are we on the brink of sustained medium term ( 3 to 5 years ) growth 9f ~20% per annum ? Maybe. If we are then I can see a share price of £80 to £90 in the next 18 months. We'll know better when this years results come out along with, more importantly, details of the outlook for 24/25.
Until then, for me, it's about risk management of my meagre wad !
Well, I've sold a few and taken some profit today.
Time will tell if that was a good move !
Boring Bernie,
I quite understand. Yet, with the Goodwin family buying extra shares even for the grandchildren at up to £60.50, I sense this is a good business to stay involved with.
My last purchase was at £53 and so I take comfort that the family are satisfied with the business and sense there are good prospects ahead.
It'll be nice if it does carry on rising, but at £60 the yield is dropping to roughly 2% and the sp is putting a lot of faith in earnings continuing to rise which is making me a bit nervous so I've reduced a bit.
The spread is tighter than it appears btw, the price I got for selling a few was in the £59's so the guess that sites make on whether trades are buys or sells isn't very accurate on GDWN.
Unless the sp rises to really silly heights, I'll keep most of the rest of my holding, but will likely reduce a bit more if it keeps creeping up.
BB
Bouncing along!
Can it hold and move on from 6000?
...with chunky divis and a good gamble that they will either split to encourage marketability or get a bid. There is even an outside chance in time that their Indian business could be floated off over there. Right now I am in profit if I sold but with so few, it's a hold at least until £65!!
....a whole 100 of these babes!! Spent too much on commission by taking them in small numbers but not keen to add when the turn is so huge. Sit and wait now and expect either a share split or an agreed offer.
The Aroon indicator, often gives late buy signals, so conversely, I have noticed that the normally bearish Aroon Down, often accurately signals a bottom. When the Aroon Down, makes 2 touches of the 100 maximum, within a short time, say a week, the sp, bottom often follows shortly after. Since there are no absolute guarantees, in the market, a price stop, under a nearby price low, would be ok.
Not gung ho but would not expect it from this co. Bought a few more!
Anyone know whether the Indian factory is firing on all cylinders yet?
I believe next report will squeeze this much higher and prompt a share split.
Only hold a few but its a real winner.
This is a serious company, with I think, a full order book and a bright future.
The SP is very volatile, I don't see a bid as very likely, but what do I know?
It's a family company and any bid interest will I think be unwelcome. I'm happy to hold and see what the future holds.
That's some bounce!
Either these will split shortly or get a bid. Took a few just to have an interest.
Maybe flirting with 5000 is more likely.
Something has affected sentiment here.
...it may take a little longer to flirt with 6000 than I previously thought !
No, it got a little ahead of itself.
I expect this to flirt with 6000 again soon though.
Surely this can't go any higher!?
All reports should be like these.
Honest and simple.
Flying !
Crikey !
Yes, caution and scepticism first!
Good day today though, so I'm watching this closely.
Interesting but never buy this type pf heavyweight on a share tip, especially before Xmas. Mental note made!
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