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Falcon Oil Share Chat (FOG)



Share Price: 22.625Bid: 22.00Ask: 23.25Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Falcon Oil
Spread: 1.25Spread as %: 5.68%Open: 23.375High: 23.375Low: 22.625Yesterday’s Close: 22.625


Share Discussion for Falcon Oil


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walk-it-off
Posts: 50
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.625
RE: RBC Research Report
Sat 22:56
Hi WW:
First of all... safe travels!
I can't imagine that we won't need to do a CR. And that's not necessarily a bad thing, as long as it's a little later, rather than sooner (give the SP a chance to climb post-lifting of the moratorium) so that any new shares would be introduced at a higher value... more capital bang for the dilution. I'ts actually been on my mind for the past few days, and I'm OK with it. We will need operating $... especially if we need to wait longer than anticipated for the sale of the asset in order to get maximal value. And I'm OK w/ pushing back the sale, if necessary, b/c I've been a man of relatively modest means my whole life, so an extra year or two (or three) is fine by me if it leads to maximal value. Of course, I'd love a big payday tomorrow, just like everyone, but I'm willing to be as patient as I need to be.I know that won't make some folks happy (Mirabeau I know you have an 18 month timeline, but you'll do great no matter what... it's just a matter of how great).

Question/topic for Newtofo (and others):
As WW has pointed-out, exercising the ORRI option could/would be vital (my opinion also), so some type of capital would need to be generated. And I personally would like to see us get the most ORRI possible... money well spent I predict. However, about the ORRI itself, and the structure of the sale you mentioned a few months ago, wherein we all sell our shares when POQ pulls the trigger, and we are issued pro-rata shares of NEWCO (for the SA and Hungarian assets): do you suppose that any ORRI we acquire would convey with the NEWCO shares (i.e. generate revenue for NEWCO and maybe dividends for us individually), or would you think that said ORRI would be incorporated in the sale of Falcon Australia (I guess as added or future value of the asset)? I'm thinking (hoping) that they would convey with NEWCO shares, but you have a much better handle on this biz, as you spoke with POQ r.e. the structure of the sale. Any thoughts on this?

Cheers to all,
-walk
 
bigones
Posts: 234
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.625
RE: RBC Research Report
Sat 22:46
Sold 30000 own 80000 free and clear, the houses money. Had $9100 IN IT SOLD FOR 9246, so pocketed another 100 plus. Will be back when it drops a lot more. Maybe get back to my original 380,000. RBC sees no potential gains till a well is producing commercially, new reserves can be proved, the ban is lifted. How long will that be? If an independent commission required , how long will it take to pick members, make rules and implement them? The next report in March won't be very frack friendly. JMO and the majority still oppose fracking. Hold on tight and buy if you think it is going up, I believe it is going down and can get back more cheaper. Hopefully 33% cheaper. Plus if this takes 2 years Falcon will be back selling millions of more shares, money starting to get tight ! To get the ORRI they will need another 20 million dollars before long, possibly before a drill bit hits the dirt. At my expected price of 20 cents that's 100 million more shares. Wow, if not placed privately at a discount. This is all hoping that the frack ban ends. Otherwise wait for a new government. JMO and I could be wrong, but if right I will own even more at a lot cheaper prices. GTY
WetWater
Posts: 148
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.625
RE: RBC Research Report
Sat 01:38
Big ones - I was thinking about you the other day when the stock moved up - Good for you in selling 80k -making $100 bucks and clearing out cost is never bad. Me - I may have bought some of that stock you sold! Still up about 65% on my holdings so feeling pretty good about my position - Now looking forward to March. Guess I should have been a geologist- ever optimistic!!
Mirabeau
Posts: 2,222
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.625
RE: RBC Research Report
Fri 20:33
thanks WW - yes, the RBC downer on Falcon's valuation is surprising. Now the wait for Gunner and his war with the coastal unions and the activists...

time will tell
bigones
Posts: 234
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.625
RE: RBC Research Report
Fri 20:06
No need to restate anything . I did sell 30000 at 31 cents now own 80000 free and clear plus made another 100 bucks. Thought as I said a few months ago that selling on the news would get me 36 to 40 cents but I as wrong, still it seems like we are in for a continued drift lower and a better entry point next year. I see no clear path to undoing the ban yet plus a new commission to implement rules ; how long will that take to do ? Can we get the legislature and Gunner to sign off on the ban, or will it go to a territorial vote ? I thought this report would of been taken as a good exit point but it was taken with a yawn. GLTA
WetWater
Posts: 148
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.625
View Thread (3)
RE: RBC Research Report
Fri 16:59
Lots of information in the RBC 44 page report. It is a well done report - my main complaint is the valuation and RBC's unwillingness to give any upside evaluation to future development - they are going to just stick with what has currently been performed. It looks like as things progress they will increase Falcon's evaluation.

I did come across a section that talks about a 4% Overriding Royalty Interest (ORRI) on the Beetaloo permits. Falcon holds call options that enable it to acquire 2% of the ORRI for US$15m and 1% ORRI for US$5m. The call options have a term of 5 years with the US$5m option expiring by Q3 2018 and the US$15m option expiring by Q3 2019. If exercised these call options would be funded by Falcon 30% and Origin 70%. I would think it important to exercise these options which would mean Falcon will have to come up with US$6m over the next couple of years. With Falcon's burn rate it looks like we might have some more stock issued sometime in the not to distant future. RBC thinks in the next 12-18 months Falcon may look to raise further equity capital to support the ongoing activities in the Beetaloo (outside carried appraisal program) and other business development opportunities (call options?)

Gotta Jet - headed out of town.
CommandoKai
Posts: 52
Observation
Opinion:Buy
Price:22.875
View Thread (2)
No brainer
Fri 13:39
for new buyers, as the main hurdle has been cleared, dissapointing that our risk of holding before the report has not been rewarded, but at least now I'm wondering if I should have more instead of wondering if I had too many. The risk of the moratorium not being lifted is pretty much non existent IMO, why would they spend so much time and money on a report only to go directly against it's conclusions. They may however drag out the lifting, and it seems like the fireworks wont be at least until the final report in March, unless an insightfully early and decent value offer comes in. Even Malcy hasn't bothered to mention the report in his late blog, perhaps he wants to keep the SP quiet so he can add them to his bucket list next year and then hype them up for the big gains. You never know what spark could light this share on fire though, so personally I'm not gonna risk moving any out while we wait, but I can see why it's tempting others.
dprussky
Posts: 498
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:23.125
RE: Positive thought
Fri 11:55
They put out this report so they can increase their price target later. It is too early to hype this. Need To Start drilling!
RibbitToad
Posts: 35
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:23.125
RE: Positive thought
Fri 10:05
If you wait by the river long enough, eventually, the bodies of your enemies float by!
Sun Tzu.
Origin789
Posts: 77
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:23.25
RE: Positive thought
Fri 09:07
Great to hear the positive thoughts, us foggers are incredibly patient people, let's hope the patience is to be well rewarded!




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