London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
We would have a corresponding stellar sp performance. Sadly, it looks like I'm wrong.
Fingers crossed we will get some increase in value as time moves on.
Very frustrating it is in fact part of the BODs job to increase shareholder value.
Atb,
Northern
Frankly, I don't think today's news is that terrible- given the options. Apparently, 22.5% on the existing well and 5% on the next give us a total of 10% on the three Wells or 72,000 acres. Roughly 45% of what we would have at full participation. The alternative was raising money at these low rates which has been my fear for the last several years. This allows POQ to continue to collect the salary He has enjoyed for so many years. There is no rush for anyone to buy falcons portion at this point. It's share won't produce much for years. When the sale finally comes, I'm thinking more like 4 to 5 years, possibly it will be in the $.60-$.80 range. Any attempt, in my mind, to sell in the next couple of years will result in a sale with a slight premium to today's stock price. Sadly, I think $.30 is now out of the question. Why would someone sell out the money at this point to buy falcon unless they can get it super cheap? Just my humble opinion as always.
Here are five different aspects on this Falcon update -- to think about over the next few weeks while we wait for the 90 day flow rates to be announced.
1. With this reduction to only 5% in the upcoming SSH2 well pad, and the two 3 km horizontals to be drilled there, Falcon is now almost FULLY CARRIED on those two very expensive horizontals. Given Tamboran's normal rate of spending -- these two wells could run close to $100 million Aussie by the time they are fracked and flowing for 90 days. Falcon's share could be as high as $5 million -- but Falcon still has a $3.75 million Aussie dollar carry on those next two wells.
2. Tamboran's excessive cost structure, with new wells costing two to three times what Empires spends -- when the very high General and Admin costs at Tamboran are added in -- is NO LONGER a big concern for Falcon with this drop to 5%.. Tamboran just raised $55 million in Aussie dollars and they already know that is not enough to cover Tamboran's 47.5% of the first two horizontals (even with Daly Waters covering 47.5% of the total expenditures).
3. Falcon's stock price HAS NOT BENEFITED from the stellar flow rates, but rather has moved significantly down on great news. This means that any full 22.5% participation in the SSH2 pilot program would have required POQ selling a couple 100 million shares around 10 cents -- diluting Falcon to the tune of 20% -- for very little gain in the future selling price. It has become depressingly clear that even great news is not helping the stock move up. Therefore diluting the stock at this point would only have benefited Tamboran and Sheffield by reducing their costs. It is becoming too darn apparent that our real potential win with Falcon is not coming from any of the day to day gyrations on the various stock markets -- but rather from POQ making the best deal possible in the next two years to sell the entire 22.5% in Falcon's full million remaining acreage.
4. Falcon's decision to put 95% OF ALL EXPENDITURES onto Tamboran's and Brian Sheffield's shoulders could potentially help motivate B.S. to find someone like his associates at EQT or Chesapeake -- to make an offer to buy out Falcon. I would think that B.S. would much rather have a deep pocket partner paying up their 22.5% in all costs -- rather than tiny Falcon just getting an almost free ride -- while the Core area is proven up??
5. If the eventual buyer of Falcon's potential 5 TCF of gas is someone like Inpex -- then this move to cut Falcon's forward costs down to 5% is brilliant. Inpex does not need Falcon's 22.5% of the Beetaloo gas for AT LEAST THREE or four years time. Inpex has already told the northern Territory government that they want to build a third LNG train in Darwin, but Inpex won't have that third train completed till the end of this decade, so any delays now while we wait for the 3 km flow rates is ok...
11.15 on the 22 feb then this
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/falcon-oil-gas-ltd-stellar-ip30-day-flow-rates-advances-the-beetaloo-to-pilot-development-t0r20eiauwwxqp5.html
and now 7.5.
i’m finding this difficult to get my head around over 30% and more drop on stellar find. how have we come to this. must be something in the offing, cheap bid. ? at my age and time in this share this a real downer and hope poq just hasn’t ****ed up. hopefully something up his sleeve because at the moment he is providing no value to shareholders. ffs
Apparently the options based on reactions to flow results were if SP strongly rises then small dilution, if SP in the same levels or lower then reduce participation in next wells. Thus I would say this has been a smart follow the logic chart.
Sure a SP strong rise and minor dilution would have been better, but unfortunatelly is not what has happened.
Another top up , 7.9p paid on 8p order target set on 7th on 15% day drop.
RNS 7am today further 10% drop today 5% spread.
Posters here in the early hours appeared to know the news already.
108 post in the past 18 days on this B.B. approx 6 per day , half as many as last noted.
In hindsight better if I had sold 3 times as many imatiredofthis on 8/2/24.
Not sure if fundamentals apply with AIM casino shares.
Shares in Issue 1.04b
Market Cap. £81.98m
Market Size 20,000
PE Ratio -23.65892
Earnings -0.331799
Dividend 0.00
Yield 0.00%
Short term pain for long term gain.
Agree
POQ has chosen to avoid dilution of the stock, our share price is too weak to raise, so a successful pilot programme will still benefit FOGs selling. We can sit and wait for Tamboran to prove up for us, without further weakening our 22.5%. I see this as a positive, and likely sell in 12 to 18 months if the pilot goes as well as we hope. GLA
I actually think the rns from fog this morning was pretty good and makes strategic sense
25 March 2024 - Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) announces that it has elected to reduce its working interest in the proposed Shenandoah South Pilot Project (“Pilot) from 22.5% to 5%. This optimises Falcon’s interest in the Beetaloo, since Falcon will only have to pay for 5% of the costs of the two wells to be drilled in 2024 as part of the Pilot but will still retain a 10% working interest in the enlarged area of circa 72,000 acres around the Pilot and a 22.5% working interest in the remaining 4.52 million acres.
Key Highlights
The election by Falcon to reduce its working interest to 5% will significantly reduce Falcon’s cost to participate in the Pilot.Falcon also retains the benefit of a further A$16.67m (US$11m) of gross carry that will be used to offset against the costs of the Pilot in 2024, thereby further reducing Falcon’s cost to participate.Falcon participated in the SS1-H well in 2023 at its 22.5% working interest which created a Drill Spacing Unit (“DSU”) of 20,480 acres.The two wells in the 2024 drilling program will create two new DSU’s totalling 51,200 acres in which Falcon will participate and retain a working interest at 5%.Falcon’s combined weighted average ownership and future participation entitlement of this enlarged area of 72,000 acres post the Pilot will be 10%.Falcon retains its full 22.5% participation interest in the remaining 4.52 million acres in the Beetaloo, net 1 million acres to Falcon.
Philip O’Quigley, CEO of Falcon commented: “Falcon’s election to reduce its participating interest to 5% in the Pilot is a prudent use of our capital resources as it significantly reduces our cost exposure. Post a successful Pilot, Falcon will own a weighted average interest of 10% in the enlarged area of around 72,000 acres around the Pilot and will be able to participate in any future development of this area, whilst still retaining 22.5% interest in the remaining 4.52 million acres. This election by Falcon demonstrates our ability to optimise our interest in the Beetaloo for the benefit of shareholders.
Falcon RNS out this morning
When does this agreement 'kick in' and is this the Irishman's flagging a sale of the company's entire interest in Beetaloo? Either way, he's becoming an irritant. Time for him to shut the FU and move on or sell the company
You just never stop pushing the kool aid! I figured you would have been way out front of this one with all your contacts you brag about!
Contrary to what some of our finer posters might say, Philip is not known for doing stupid things. Let's see what Falcon's NR allows tomorrow. I'm betting there is a logical reason to go non-consent on 17.5% but retain a 5% interest. Maybe we will learn more about the sole-risk-clause tomorrow - could be another chess-move.
Insane, the board should be cleaned out. Just stupendous.
Stock has been performing poorly, raise was kind of being baked in. But this is a curveball. We’ll see .
Wow, what a surprise! Is POQ taking a 75% haircut on his already bloated salary, that's a big fat NO! People should realize these penny stocks mainly serve the management and they will do anything to preserve their paychecks. This stock will be punished accordingly come Monday. It is a bit shocking they didn't do a capital raise before this move, as what they have done will essentially do the same thing to the stock. POQ is saying, how do you like me now. The man has NO shame.
Mr. Slick Irishman receives $600k annual compensation… for this?!? “Master stroke” indeed!!!
Wonder if we’ll hear something from FO on this tomorrow.
Disappointing to say the least.
Ok then. Def not what we were led to believe would happen. And TBN release before FOG. Interesting.
This is very worrisome news out of Tamboran today -- as Falcon will now have a tiny 5% interest in the next 138 wells to be drilled around the 51,000 acres surrounding the SSH2 Pilot Program well pad. Those next 138 wells could take five years to get completed and during that 5 years Falcon will get next to nothing in revenue for five long years.
What the heck is going on that POQ is basically giving up on the Beetaloo for that many years -- as I for one can't remotely think about hanging on for another five years to see any chance of revenue or a buyer. It is very doubtful that POQ will ever find a buyer in the next 18 to 24 months -- as any buyer won't get anything more than 5% of the gas until those 138 new wells have all been drilled -- sheesh.
• Tamboran has increased its working interest in the proposed Shenandoah South Pilot Project to
a minimum of 47.5% following a decision by Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited (Falcon) to limit
its participation to 5% in the Beetaloo Joint Ventures’ second Shenandoah South well pad (SS2)
and the two wells in the 2024 drilling program.
• The two wells in the 2024 drilling program will create two Drilling Spacing Units (DSUs) totaling
51,200 gross acres around the new SS2 well pad, where Tamboran and Daly Waters Energy, LP
(DWE) as 50/50% owners of Tamboran (B2) Pty Limited have agreed to pick up the non-consent,
increasing interest to 95%.
• Tamboran and DWE will carry Falcon for up to A$3.75 million gross (A$1.875 million net) for the
first well post 30 June 2024.
• The 51,200 gross acre area has the potential to accommodate 23 well pads (138 wells based on
six wells per pad, 3,000-metre lateral sections and 500 metre well spacings) and it is expected to
support the wells required to deliver gas to the proposed Shenandoah South Pilot Project.
Market not loving the news for Tamboran. Down 3% since release. Hopefully that inverse will be true for us and market will reward stewardship of cash and resources. If the two wells are commercial our value will climb significantly regardless so I guess it's more of forget about the share price until we have a sale. Good share appreciation can only help so in the meantime fingers crossed
Will be interesting to see what the market makes of this news. We are seeing the participation agreement play out. Two choices were to dilute and fully participate or not to dilute play at a level that can be supported by cash and carry. 138 wells is a lot of wells to be locked in at a max of 5%. But 50k acres in a lot of 4m is not much I guess.