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EXCLUSIVE: Alastair Smith, Avacta Group CEO gives an Operational Update


Falcon Oil Share Chat (FOG)



Share Price: 16.75Bid: 16.50Ask: 17.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Falcon Oil
Spread: 0.50Spread as %: 3.03%Open: 16.875High: 16.875Low: 16.75Yesterday’s Close: 16.75


Share Discussion for Falcon Oil


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RibbitToad
Posts: 76
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.75
RE: Case and point
Fri 18:33
Perhaps the RBC guy is building a position first<0>
Just joking!
 
Poods
Posts: 60
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.25
RE: Case and point
Fri 16:55
WW,

Humor is always appreciated, especially at funerals and in this case FOG, and today your comment is the undeniable winner. Levity is one of the foundations of life; cheers to you. As to the critical point of the contract, they can be written to suit the parties involved. Having not read the contract, all I can say is "yes and no" to your comment. For what it is worth, if your knowledge of or reading between the lines is the basis of your comment that is fair. However, there probably is much more to be known and as such either POQ has deemed it irrelevant or Origin is sitting on it. One never knows what is happening in the weeds on matters like this, except of course the parties to. We are near knowing what Origin wants us to have POQ relate and then we may know more or less. My note is a bit legalistic sounding (I am not an attorney), but the facts are fuzzy to a certain extent, except for the seismic we have been shown.
WetWater
Posts: 373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.75
RE: Case and point
Fri 16:36
I find myself agreeing with Poods on his comments. As I have pointed out before, Origin is the operator and as such controls any news coming out of those operations. Yes, Origin has to provide Falcon with the data and Falcon likely has some say over some aspects but Origin is basically driving the train as to when that news can be released. POQ does in fact have his hands tied as to releasing news regarding the Beetaloo's operations. For that reason you won't see POQ on any roadshows until he has new news in hand. I am hopeful that the coinciding AGMs of Falcon and Origin might mean there is some news to be released prior to those meetings - just my opinion.

If any are planning to attend the Annual Meeting you will need to let Falcon know ahead of time. There are restrictions that need to be met and from what I understand some of those are based on how the stock is held, etc.. I found out today that the CFO is out of the office until Oct 1st - she will be the one to provide necessary information.
dprussky
Posts: 780
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.75
RE: Case and point
Fri 16:16
Poods as far as I know JV partners entitled to every single piece of the information around the project and if something is unclear information can be requested. Origin as THE operator of the project has to provide it. There is 100% transparency between all JV partners and that is to avoid potential lawsuits also Origin has not earn their share (~70%) yet. They have to execute to the contract without deviation otherwise Falcon can claim material breach and walk away. In my opinion Falcon is in the driving seat.
Poods
Posts: 60
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.75
RE: Case and point
Fri 15:52
Newtofo etal'

Frustration is certainly something we all can agree on as regards FOG. However, POQ does understand the regulations he operates under and only pontificates when he can. In these moments of frustration, please take the time to read the proxy statement and be sure to vote as you feel. Give some thought to the proxy question on this year's ballot and appreciate that your vote is a statement to the board, a report card of sorts. Agreed, the selling is no fun, but POQ's hands are tied because POQ is not the operator. Frankly Origin, probably enjoys being able to be tight-lipped for the moment. In a few weeks, POQ will or will not have his moment to shine or not. Whether it makes a difference is not based on what he thinks; rather, what Origin discloses.
newtofo
Posts: 707
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.75
RE: Case and point
Fri 15:04
dprussky, I have followed a couple of these small caps in the past when Statoil had a farm in into the Amadeus Basin, and as far as I can tell - not one of them has anything even close to the potential of Falcon. The NT water monitoring plan is aimed at the Beetaloo Basin only for the next three to five years - so anything outside of the Falcon, Santos and Pangaea permits is unlikely to be allowed to even do exploration drilling for many years to come, and with very little chance for success as they are all on the very outer boundaries of the Beetaloo! That being said it would certainly be nice if our useless RBC analyst, Ben something or other, in Australia was coming up with realistic targets for Falcon and was promoting the stock, but so far I don't think he has done a thing for Falcon and maybe should be replaced??
ITguy
Posts: 225
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Case and point
Fri 12:20
Looks like they were focusing only on ASX listed companies. And, Origin isn't a small cap.

We will have our time to shine!
dprussky
Posts: 780
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
Case and point
Fri 11:25
Here is article that talks about potential of beetaloo and nothing about falcon. How is even possible???

"Shares in all of these companies except for Blue Energy are higher than they were 12 months ago."

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/these-are-the-small-caps-set-to-make-out-like-bandits-on-territory-gas/
Poods
Posts: 60
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 20:28
We are on the same page, but let's see if the board ignores what we know they are reading and "staying the course" of only thinking of themselves. Thank you
WetWater
Posts: 373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 20:23
Poods - Yes "S___ happens" I guess I tend to see the glass as half full. I am not a PE, geologist or in the oil business 'anymore' - I was a partner in drilling rigs and oil field related machine shops, downhole tools, etc. back in the bust of the 80's - So yes I know from personal experience that "Sh__ Happens!"

Its important to point out as Nano and others have that this is not a sure thing but on the other hand Falcon comes with some pretty amazing potential rewards. There are worst positions to be in than fully carried for the next 4-5 wells with sufficient cash to see our way through that carry. Lets just not paint this investment pitch black with the doom and gloom with all the 'possible' things that could go wrong.

If this 2019 drilling program (as already announced) proves successful then we are in great shape. If not so successful then as POQ indicated, it's not all bad news as then we would know where and what not to concentrate on in the 2020 drilling season. He is as optimistic as I am :^)

Anyway, I guess I am the eternal optimist of the board - maybe we compliment each other. If this works out the way you and I hope then we will all go away happy. If not then oh well - been there before!
ilvelo
Posts: 113
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 19:57
Thank you so much Poods !
Have fun !
Poods
Posts: 60
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 19:48
Why would I want to see the shares down given the size of my holdings. Granted it is not a particularly large one for me, but all my positions are important. My comments are gloomy as to the manner the company is managed, but not the quality of the one remaining asset we have. If you would like me to not spoke both from experience and the heart let me now and if others agree there is no need to continue, as even though I am retired, my schedule with fun to do is full.
Silverback0_13
Posts: 99
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 19:41
Good post WW.....been some gloomy swing lately,...negative vibes bringing me down along with the weather .
ilvelo
Posts: 113
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 19:37
It is just my opinion!
ilvelo
Posts: 113
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 19:29
Poods you are sure a well educated and instructed person with a fine wording ! But your only goal is to talk and bash
the stock down!
Poods
Posts: 60
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Nostradamus Effect
Thu 18:25
WW,

Your response seems indicate your knowledge of the oil and gas industry is better than most presented on this board. Remember my comment was Origin COULD not IS going to put the "tight hole" restriction is place. For all our sake my hope is the do not need to, but at times it is necessary to "zipper the lips" around a drill site. If you have the experience do, you will appreciate this comment. Lastly, would disagree on our not needing additional cash reserves due to the fact "S___ happens" and we could be without cash operating funds to pull through to the end. Appreciate your input and pleased you understand of what my comments mean.
schlemiel
Posts: 518
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
Jemena fracked gas extension
Thu 18:12
Sep 21 2018

'Jemena is now working on a potential extension of the line eastwards past gas fields in the landlocked Galilee Basin and an expansion to open a path to market for vast resources of unconventional gas in the NT.'

https://www.afr.com/business/energy/gas/santos-signs-contract-to-use-jemenas-new-nt-gas-pipeline-link-20180919-h15lue
WetWater
Posts: 373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
Nostradamus Effect
Thu 17:45
Some on this board seem to be predicting apocalyptic floods, famine and other doomsday scenarios. From ‘precarious cash positions’ to bankruptcy, to tight holes. Everyday exploration operations appear to be dire and foreboding – fraught with risk and ominous consequences.

It’s amazing how Origin is going ‘tight hole’ when they haven’t drilled but one HFT which they announced to be a discovery as required by the NT government. Origin, thru the Falcon farm-out, has 4.6 million acres in the middle of nowhere, yet according to some are going to go ‘tight hole’ for exactly what reason and on what ‘hole’? Lord knows they have more acreage than they will ever require and are certainly not in the market to acquire more. If as some reports indicate that Origin wants out of the oil & gas business then Origin is going to be promoting the hell out of the Beetaloo – not trying to keep it under secretive wraps.

Falcon is for all purposes fully carried for the next two drilling seasons and cash flow is being managed very effectively yet Nostradamus predicts the company is in a very precarious cash position? He adds that while our leaders can assure us financial results are accurate that does not mean much at this point. – Huh?? Is the sky falling? Are we on the edge of the proverbial cliff? – Nope - We are in the oil business and being fully carried for the next two years – plenty of time to panic going forward. IMO Falcon is currently in the ‘catbirds’ seat – far from the awful situation some would have us in. If one can’t stomach the uncertainty of the oil business, they better find another investment.

I was glad to see some of the recent post deleted from this board as some were getting a little too personal and carried away with themselves – hopefully the coordinated (?) Falcon and Origin AGMs will give us some news to refocus the board.
Poods
Posts: 60
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: Comments
Thu 13:45
Camelot,

My prediction awhile ago of FOG approaching 10p is a combination of intuition and past experience. At this point, FOG is a one-trick pony and not because of anything POQ has done; rather, the result of the drilling bit eliminating Hungary and SA through the problem of a good part of the continent, political corruption. If there is not a substantive announcement at the AGM, i.e. an actual starting date for drilling in the near term or a longshot capital event to bolster the company's fortunes, my prior suggestion of the 10p level being a target, could happen quickly, as "hope" turns to "disgust". Also, Origin has the right to call for "tight hole" status, which does not allow news to be reported, sometimes for extended periods, as they opt to maximize our opportunity based on incremental drilling results. FOG can ill-afford to in effect "go quiet" with shareholders due to this condition. The implication of "tight hole" status, infers good things, but does not generally allow useful information to be shared with its shareholders. Call it a "death knell" of sorts. Our current cash position is perilous by any reasonable standards. The board either has something good or not good to say at the next AGM. Let's hope sensible decisions and / or positive news are forthcoming. Good news will certainly allow the seller(s) to unload more shares, but bad news probably will drive them to really push shares into the market; and a heartbreaking drop possible. While our leaders can assure us financial results are accurate, it does not mean much at this point. Let's hope the proverbial rabbit "jumps out of the hat" at the upcoming AGM and POQ can rub it in our faces.
dprussky
Posts: 780
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
RE: SA Update
Thu 10:31
Cabinet had also asked Parliament to withdraw the controversial Minerals & Petroleum Resources Development Amendment bill which paves the way for separate treatment of the oil and gas industries in legislation. Currently, the sector looks to the Minerals & Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA)

https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/34397-sas-cabinet-accepts-mining-charter-redraft-gazetting-imminent/
Silverback0_13
Posts: 99
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:16.875
Origin share price
Thu 10:20
Appears to have taken a hit these past couple of months!
ITguy
Posts: 225
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:17.25
APPEA Article
Wed 21:45
Activism on gas projects is wasted energy...pun intended.

https://www.appea.com.au/2018/09/activism-on-gas-projects-is-wasted-energy/
coma
Posts: 36
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:17.25
RE: Comments
Wed 17:09
Was at a couple of these meetings 35/40 max attend
Camelot1
Posts: 92
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:17.35
Comments
Wed 14:32
POODS...very few attend these events...but they may have more this time as it would appear than several of the chat board are planning to go. I could not agree more that some challenging questions need to be asked as I have already voiced my disgust over Ann's compensation. I also do not approve that there has not been more disclosure over who is being awarded stock options...after basically another quiet year. If in fact Origin is timing their meeting with Falcon's I have to believe this is coordinated for some reason...and quite possible we get some announcement
Poods
Posts: 60
Opinion:Hold
Price:17.35
AGM attendees
Wed 13:32
How many shareholders usually attend the AGM on average? Are people able to ask challenging questions, or they are either cutoff out of hand, as irrelevant or some other lame reason? Unfortunately, this is the year as we new insolvency to challenge our board. They have played a dangerous hand and one slip / delay in the timing for whatever reason and the prospects of an auction in bankruptcy could be realized sooner than you realize. Comments




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