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Well, its now my biggest stock by far on shares owned. and my second biggest holding. Starting to think this has the best chance for overall returns. DYOR etc
Morning CI,
I posted this on the Harl BB on the 16th at 10:42 when the first RNS was released.
"The RNS today is good without being fantastic but I would think that H&W are going to RNS anything they can to convince shareholders the only way from here is up and to try and change the mood music surrounding the SP.
(fwiw), Its always hard to say but I think we are close to the lows now and am building up a position around these prices"
Its always hard to know where to get in and ultimately its usually the lower the price the bigger the risk.
My reasoning is the Govt would not have likely given them the order if they thought they were going to go bust. Almost to the point that this stops them going bust and therefore that was partly/always the Govt 's plan.
So for me (and this may be misplaced reasoning), if they are not going bust then this removes a large risk attached to the company which in turn means the company, valued at just £25m is crazy.
Chart wise the new is support is 14.12-14.38. A break and close above 15.05p would be the first step to suggest the down trend is broken with stronger confirmation at a close above 16.6p
(just my opinion DYOR etc)
HARL has issued 3 RNS's on 3 consecutive trading days, coincidence or not? I wonder whether they in the process of raising capital via rights issue to strengthen their balance sheet in light of big orders in order to disclose further information to potential IIs. Or they just trying to release more good news so more people buy the supply from sellers? Anyways good news to learn about their strong sales pipeline. I think from FA perspective, it is pretty solid. I will be looking for the right time to buy.. not sure when yet. IMO, DYOR.
CI, well it looks to be holding around these levels so I think it might have bottomed out.
If the SP is to go up then my "logic" on the selling is that they are cashing in on the big rise from around 5p (they have been selling down from 24p), the big order is spread over several years and does not initself make the company but the investment will modernise the yard very quickly and I think further orders will come and there will be a snowball effect.
I have no idea if any of this will come to pass but the risk reward looks worth the punt. Imagine if it become a half billion or billion £ company! (Thats rampy for me!! :0))
Wyn, interesting and unusual u take off ur TA hat off to FA. I agree, HARL has great potential to become big, but I am a bit concerned with the lack of IIs, if look at the shareholders, the only ones remaining are selling.. I am puzzled as to why big investors are not flocking to this what seems to be an amazing opportunity. A company that is valued at $25m.. with almost a billion dollar deal. What puzzles me further is why are the sellers Killik, Appledore and Kave offloading millions of shares at this low price if this opportunity is so so great. And why no big investors taking them. It is very very strange to me. Why u purchase 2x today? Why not tomorrow?
I like H&W's prospects given how low the mkt cap of the company is (£25m), at 10 times it is only £250m and babcoock is valued at £1.4b. Now, I am not saying they will be there in a couple of weeks but I can see a potential for 5-10 bagger in 24-36 months if thinks go their way. and it looks to me as they have cash flow to update and modernise the yards then labour costs become less influential on costs. Coupled with a UK govt that is desperate to get some sort of positive headlines of a "Great British" success story and there are a lot of, unrelated to ship building, but key factors that could play into them winning future orders.
Early days of course but the risk reward looks good to me (and I am not referring to the chart). Made a further 4 purchases this week including 2 today. Dyor etc etc
IQAI / Iq-ai seems I wrote too soon!
IQAI / Iq-ai seems to be bubbling a little.
I agree about ONC. I have sold out, the RNS said (for all the good stuff) that it would make no material difference to this years figures so probably time to get back in as and when.
re: Harl, nice sudden spike today. This is probs due to the recent stop in selling. Not sure if it is their strategy to attract short-term spikes and sell into them for higher price. Is this typical practice? I will continue to follow closely.
RE: ONC, continuous declines over recent days, now down towards 50s. I did gradually sell down to derisk but still hold a small amount. Not sure what to do... whether to sell the remaining or wait and see until results. Not much of a strategy here. I was originally think it was on an upward trend so didn't expect it to fall to these levels. IMO, DYOR.
Re Harl: the strong bounce away from the 15p support has convinced me enough to add further now.
(I have mentioned before stops can be a cat and mouse game and I get attentive once it falls below an obvious stop, and always build in a bit of wiggle room before selling.
I was ready to sell this morning if it looked like it was going to fall further so patience one the day (at least today).
It could well fall back again if the seller comes back out, but it looks like there underlying strength in and around the current SP (imo dyor etc)
I have a pretty modest holding in this CI so strictly speaking I would exit if it closed below 15p. In reality I will probably offload some in that instance, but in any event its relatively small beer.
I think a close above 17.5p (right now) would indicate the trend might be reversing.
I like HE1 chart wise plus my own personal logic suggests that some that a low has been reached.
AVCT is getting close to it "science day" but hard to predict what will happen. Will it be a rehash of whats known or will it be new info?
Again it looks ok to me at this particular level to buy some.(160p)
Diversify and small amounts is not the worst phillosphy in this game. (imo) :0))
Cheer Wyn, yes I am waiting for a clearer signal that the trend is upwards rather than down. For example, I would be more encouraged to see evidence of Killik & Co LLP and Kave out or after RIs if that happens at all. It seems currently still downward pressure. I am especially risk adverse after Eve Sleep's loss, I understand I may miss out on a sudden big rise if such news comes out but I would be more confident to buy if the trend is upwards. Are you saying you have a stop loss of around 14 and 13p? If so, would u then wait to buy back in at 10p if those stops hit?
a bit early for harl as I tend to wait for close of play prices rather than intraday. but if 15p goes then it could be 10p but there are also potential stops at around 14p and 13p.
if 15p does hold today then it would be showing a lot of support at 15p.
As you say "Not taken any position yet.", are you waiting for a trigger to get in or not particularly?
GL
HI Wyn, Harl continues its decline, do you have any new thoughts on this? Will u continue to top up or u have a price point to sell? I am a curious observer. Not taken any position yet.
Thanks for sharing Geeman, I listened to the podcast already. Tough luck... cost me an arm and a leg. Just a real shame. Great people just a very difficult business in this environment.
'February: The shock
In February, Russia invaded Ukraine. By the end of the month, orders were 15% down. By the end of March, orders had dropped by another 30%. So it went on.
“I didn’t scramble the jets until April. I often ask myself, should I have done that sooner? But if I’d have sat in front of my board in early March and said, ‘I've had two weeks of data that tells me we're no longer 28% up, I think I should restructure the business and make redundancies’, my board would have said, ‘You're nuts. That's really knee jerk. I think you need to wait.’”
Like many other management teams, the circumstances were unfamiliar. The business had just survived an unprecedented pandemic and was facing market conditions that the team had never witnessed.
It wasn’t just Eve Sleep feeling the pain. Searches for mattresses had dropped by about 60%. “People just weren’t searching for them and there’s very little you can do – 80% of our business was still going through mattresses at this point,” she says. It showed no signs of improving over the next few weeks.'
'January: The high
By January 2022, Eve Sleep was in great shape. “We came into the year feeling like we’d completed the rebuild strategy. Everything we’d sought to put in place was there. We were ready for growth,” she says.
The business had external targets of 10% growth and only losing £1.5m. The internal targets were 32% growth and to break even for the first time.
“If we’d hit either of those external targets, I’m sure we would have been on the front page of the business press. If we’d hit our internal targets, my goodness me, it would have been Champagne breakfasts all round. Those goals were what we as a team had fought for, built, sweated over, cried and laughed for years to get to,” she says.
By the end of January, Eve Sleep’s orders were up 28%. “We were bang on target at the bottom line and ahead at the top line. The executive team and I looked at each other and said, ‘We’ve done it.’”
The team brought in a growth partner and were about to start building a sleep wellness app, which she believed would pivot the business to access a different funding pool.
“It was all happening,” she says. Until February when, “quite frankly, the market just disappeared from under our feet”.'
'anuary: The high
By January 2022, Eve Sleep was in great shape. “We came into the year feeling like we’d completed the rebuild strategy. Everything we’d sought to put in place was there. We were ready for growth,” she says.
The business had external targets of 10% growth and only losing £1.5m. The internal targets were 32% growth and to break even for the first time.
“If we’d hit either of those external targets, I’m sure we would have been on the front page of the business press. If we’d hit our internal targets, my goodness me, it would have been Champagne breakfasts all round. Those goals were what we as a team had fought for, built, sweated over, cried and laughed for years to get to,” she says.
By the end of January, Eve Sleep’s orders were up 28%. “We were bang on target at the bottom line and ahead at the top line. The executive team and I looked at each other and said, ‘We’ve done it.’”
The team brought in a growth partner and were about to start building a sleep wellness app, which she believed would pivot the business to access a different funding pool.
“It was all happening,” she says. Until February when, “quite frankly, the market just disappeared from under our feet”.'
Also;
'The next step was to talk to potential investors. Calverley was already in conversations with interested parties because she had planned to take the business private by the end of 2022 – she felt Eve’s smaller size was a barrier to raise funds and get on the agendas of the various investment houses. “Eve’s a little bit small for the AIM market to be useful, but there’s about half-a-million pounds of cost to bear just by being a PLC. So we were bearing high costs without being able to get the benefit of accessing funding,” s
Not tried any of these links yet myself:
‘The story of eve sleep over the the time I worked there through to its eventual sale to Bensons for Beds has been a difficult one to tell.
I've shared it in snatches, sometimes over a coffee, sometimes in the pub, sometimes on the phone. Often though laughter, sometimes through a voice wobbling with emotion.
And when the story of eve as a standalone business, and my wonderful time there finally came to an end, for some time I couldn't talk about it at all.
Kate Magee caught up with me just at the moment I felt that telling the story would be beneficial, and I was ready to do so in a useful and helpful manner.
The result is in the article and podcast below. If you've any interest in what leadership, and business feels like when not passed through the LinkedIn filter of 'we are all smashing it', I hope it'll be enlightening.
And I mean what I say. If you are facing similar challenges, please reach out. If I can be of any help I will be.
(p.s.I managed it with barely a voice wobble!)’
https://lnkd.in/ezjcyP5N
The inside story of Eve Sleep’s demise
Hi CI,
I bought more harl today at 15.29. Could have waited (in theory) for the 14.75p drop but often the market moves away quickly from a strong support and it can be hard to time it perfectly, so i tend to not try to be too clever and am happy to pay just above a support and get the stock I want in .
ONC is ok, had one support at 60.5p, and is now at the next one at 58p ish. all pretty tight in the grand scheme of spreads I think. If this support goes then I might think about reducing my holding as mid 50's to 51p would be next. But there does not seem any general or specific move going on, so as I say at this stage I am not looking to be bounced out.
GL
Have u guys been following HARL? When u think good timing? I am sitting on the sidelines until sellers are out and funding announced. IMO, DYOR
ONC drifting lower on no news.. may be stay like that until we get results. What ur thoughts?
Nothing wrong with a 30% profit D. And although the results look good to me on WOSG the market still whacked it down. (But as i say its a longer timeframe for that one (see what i did there...:0))
G4M is tricky. They work on wafer thin margins once overheads are taken into account and profit versus turnover is clearly a worry to the market. However at the price they are it is worth keeping an eye on I think. Chartwise (presently) if it closes above 97p then odds are it will go up further.
Evening Wyn,
I wish I still were in WOSG but sold (at a 30% profit, thanks :-) and moved to HE1 supposedly briefly before they were supposed to spud, and then they lost the rig and money then became stuck in HE1 till they at least get another rig and maybe even spud.
A bit of a long story but I've now done something similar with AVCT with some cash (but so far, so good this time) I had and which I shall need around the end of the month. I bought at 162 a couple of days ago so the plan is working, and then added the Xeros money too today. Unless there's amazing Xeros news (could be; I do feel rather manipulated at times) I can't see things improving for a while, and after eve going bust I need to protect capital... I have the 5p warrants there too. Maybe they disappear now I'm out for too long.
I moved my F&S AVCT money to my SIPP and will get a bit of tax relief in due course, which I shall hope to move into WOSG and hopefully trade a little. It (WOSG) looks like it ebbs and flows quite regularly and won't go bust.
When the people at AVCT BB see a few sells prior to SD and say 'people are mad if they sell now' it's because I need to reduce the size of a buy to let mortgage now the interest rates are higher!
I guess you are still in WOSG or you wouldn't ask. Thanks for the view that it looks like a long term bet and a sound one at that. Good luck tomorrow!
I don't quite understand why G4M is so low. I might move a little more money there if things pan out with AVCT.
Hi D, well fingers firmly crossed this one (AVCT) pays off.
(You still WOSG? results tomorrow)
Sold my Xeros, put into AVCT till just before SD (at the earliest?). Getting far too overweight in AVCT now..