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Enquest Share Chat (ENQ)



Share Price: 20.18Bid: 20.10Ask: 20.18Change: 0.50 (+2.54%)Riser - Enquest
Spread: 0.08Spread as %: 0.40%Open: 19.99High: 20.26Low: 19.92Yesterday’s Close: 19.68


Share Discussion for Enquest




View all ENQ Messages

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Therapist
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:21.24
RE: Load #37
20 May '19
AS on way to Scapa Flow after a good servicing. Draught 12.3m.

It was a very nice morning and day even if you weren't all loved up.
 
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:21.24
RE: Load #37
20 May '19
Loading looked like it finished at about 18.00 BST - so that's just over 27 hours.

AS is on her way to Scapa Flo for a STS with Mineva Maya - draught is 12.3m indicating a 500-550k load.
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Yes, hook up at 14.45 BST.
gkb47
Posts: 2,067
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Looks hooked to me. AK draft at start 9.2 m.
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Its looking like hook up within the next hour or so.
hitman1a
Posts: 238
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Pareto sees net debt fall to $ 950 million by 2020, which also gives financial space and also dots AB's debt targets.
**********************************************************************************************************************************

I agree this number looks reasonable.. but Enquest would effectively have cash in the bank to pay the 2021 FCF earlier than expected. It has several options:
1: Start paying off the 2021 RCF early saving interest charges
2: Reverse out the OZ loan
3: Make another single field Magnus type acquisition.
4. Renegotiate and defer the 2021 RCF to 2023 bond date or later, and use the cashflow for 2 to 3 years to make a bundle deal acquisition of several assets from eg: BP. increasing production by 50,000 bopd to 120,000 bopd, They can use the "help to buy scheme" tested out with Magnus. Get 25% and then decide later if they want it all.
5. Purchase Cairn or Premier or both.
6. Purchase fields from Seapulse as and when they arise.

Whatever they do will be complex. Definitely no dividends until they make another acquisition.. AB might want a very big deal done.. which effectively generates enough production to compensate for all the old stuff we have and also generates enough profits to pay off the loans , eg: Something with a deal worth NPV $2b imv..

Probably still be 20p tomorrow.. lol.
Krakenoil
Posts: 4,367
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Very possible
Pelle
Posts: 1,367
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Hi KO

Ok, makes it easy to count so share should be approx 200p in 3 years from now:-)
Krakenoil
Posts: 4,367
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Just look at the value of our assets, over $5b gives you some idea.
Pelle
Posts: 1,367
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Yeah, Now Kraken is an second game changer after Magnus.
Unbelievable this is only 20p
What value could we estimate for a debt free Enq in future?
With EBITDA of around 1 billion usd
Value: 3 billion usd?

Saw this text in swedish forum, numbers looks resonable to me and debt reduction inline with my spreadsheet.

Pareto expects revenues in 2019 of $ 1,575 million given $ 71 / barrel.
In 2020, you estimate $ 1,827 million at $ 78 / barrel.
This gives eps after tax of $ 0.14 for 2019 and $ 0.28 for 2020.
According to Pareto, production is 70 kbobd 2019-2020. Cash Flow $ 0.37 2019 and $ 0.55 2020.
It is also written that the risk for Enq scarves if oil prices fall to $ 60 / barrel. Then the company may have difficulty amortizing, but in a more probable scenario, Pareto sees net debt fall to $ 950 million by 2020, which also gives financial space and also dots AB's debt targets.
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Kraken

The main point is that our observations have been confirmed by Cairn at their AGM - AK is producing consistently at 40-45k per day - a real game changer !!!
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
AS certainly seems to be moving in now - very slowly - hook up around mid afternoon.
Krakenoil
Posts: 4,367
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Chilt he knows exactly how much was offloaded, just the same typical comments from him, sowing the doubt seed again.
Anyone with skin in the game would have read all the feedback from CNE
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
Tanker tease continues but a hook up today is starting to look more likely - AS is maneuvering for what looks like the final approach.
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
L3
The two partial offloads made one full 550k load - as confirmed at the Cairn AGM with their 45k current production figure. The tanker left for the US with the correct draught for a 550k load.

Assuming AS hooks up today or even tomorrow that trend continues at a conservative 40-45k per day.
L3Trader
Posts: 682
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
hi E121 and Chilting,

If HK left on the 19th April at 8 PM after load #35 then to measure the length of the offload cycles we need to use the time when AS will leave AK, not when it arrives to AK.
Suppose it is tomorrow, the 20th at 8 am.
that would give 30.5 days for 2 offloads. we cannot subtract the amount of time the offloads last, because the DCs continue producing.during that time.

the question is: how much oil did the 2 #36 partial offloads lift from AK? how long did they last? did anyone measure the load of the tanker that went to the US with offload #36?

i would still want to see load #40 taking place before end of June to be reassured that production will stay high for an extended period of time.

hope so.

GLA
Therapist
Posts: 112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
19 May '19
MO,

You're the Player Pope of the Tanker Hose (sic).

xxx
MatrixObserver
Posts: 4,286
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
18 May '19
Hey E121 and Chilts...

Hope both are well...

Can see tanker tease still prevalent... USA still need sweet heavy oil :-)

MO's mack-daddied... or wishes was !!!

Good luck all

MO
epiphany121
Posts: 1,540
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
18 May '19
AS is now updated to arrive for the STS with Minerva Maya on the morning of the 21st and so, AS hook-up with AK is certainly on tomorrow. I'd make that 28.5 days for the last 2 loads, as HK left on the 19th April at 8 PM after load #35.
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
18 May '19
AS is finally getting into position for the hook up from the west-north west - she is just over 15 nautical miles from AK.

I guess they will hook up tomorrow morning.
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
RE: Load #37
18 May '19
AS is moored 18 nautical miles to the north west of AK.
chilting
Posts: 4,555
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.08
Load #37
17 May '19
No action yet.

The tanker for the STS, Minerva Maya, is scheduled to leave Scapa Flo for Port Arthur, Texas on Wednesday.




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