We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
About time someone showed up Milliband for the Marxist ideological clown he is. Still doing his father’s work, the apple never falls far from the tree.
Sorry Zippy you can't just waltz in and make claims monopolising imbecilic politicians North of the border. Certainly not while we have Ed. He's upset too. Tonight he posted on 'X'
"This is a devastating admission of failure from the SNP-Green government in Scotland - one that will leave bills higher for longer, energy jobs continuing to flow overseas, and households and businesses across Scotland vulnerable to Putin’s whims."
I don't want to appear triumphant but it looks like we've trumped you in the ideological claptrap stakes.
The problem, in other words, is not that Brits are lousy environmentalists. It’s that once again, Net Zero is collapsing as the public refuses to impoverish itself.
The rest of Europe, Remainers like to tell us, is forging ahead into a glorious green future while Brexit Britain is stalling, the government backsliding one by one on its net zero commitments.
It is hard to square that narrative with what’s really going on across the channel. In March, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, registrations of new electric vehicles plummeted by 11.3 per cent. In Germany – the grown up country that’s supposed to show childish Britain how it’s done – the drop was even more precipitous at 28.9 per cent.
Apparently it’s not just Britain where motorists have gone distinctly cool on electric cars. The electric vehicle industry appears to going the same way as one of its own products when the battery charge lowers: it’s slowing rapidly to a crawl.
And it’s plain to me that the reasons in Europe are the same as they are here: electric cars are too expensive to buy, and too fussy to recharge. They have a niche as local runabouts for people with their own off-street recharging facilities, but little appeal otherwise. Enthusiasts will point to te example of Norway, where the vehicles have a 90 per cent share of the market, but that exception merely demonstrates what has been clear for a while: people buy electric cars when the government rigs the market in their favour
In Norway, buyers of EVs pay less VAT, are given access to bus lanes or free parking in various regions, pay lower road tolls and are given the right to charge their vehicles if living in apartments. Add to that the government mandating that cars purchased in public procurement need to be zero emissions, and it’s not hard to see why sales are high.
Elsewhere, however, takeup is more moderate, and the EU’s dislike of cheap Chinese imports certainly isn’t going to help. The European Commission is currently considering whether to jack up import tariffs. This is necessary, it says, because the Chinese government is plastering the industry with unfair subsidies.
In other words, the EU is telling motorists that it wants them to go electric, but when cheaper imported products arrive on the market making it slightly more affordable for them to do so, it it cracks down on those imports.
It isn’t just electric cars, though. The EU is full of bluster when it is setting net zero targets, but arguably no more enthusiastic than we are about hitting them. Less so, even. Germany has a net zero target date of 2045, five years earlier than Britain, yet it has reopened coal mines.
Moreover, it’s wriggling out of its electric vehicle targets. Thanks to German carmakers, internal combustion engines will still be acceptable so long as they are capable of running on bio- or synthetic fuels. And thanks to German homeowners, the ban on gas boilers were also watered down. The problem, in other words, is not that Brits are lousy environmentalists. It’s that once again, Net Zero is collapsing as t
Màiri Louise McAllan is a Scottish politician serving as Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Net Zero and Energy since 2024. She previously served as Cabinet Secretary for Transport, Net Zero and Just Transition from 2023 to 2024 and Minister for Environment, Biodiversity and Land Reform from 2021 to 2023.
All that experience and she's still just a bairn (31). Perhaps now she'll have to get a job and learn about the real world.
*Key words check: they're all there and form part of the juststopoil entrance exam.
Morocco to UK interconnector project sees 20% cost hike to £24bn
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/morocco-to-uk-interconnector-project-sees-20-cost-hike-to-24bn-17-04-2024/
Sunlight getting more expensive and they still haven't got over the technical problem called "nighttime". I hear on the grapevine that even U.E.A. (Dubai) is having second thoughts and investigating hydropower.
Ahhhh, good old Yousless, what have we done to deserve such an imbecile?
I did wonder if this was going to be based on new support from the Ayatollahs or Hezbollah or ISIS-K or something.
I do wonder if the ScotGov actually thought this was a good idea to withdraw the commitments or just wanted to get ahead of the bad news.
Classic that Mairi MacAllan has blamed Westminster. Of course, who else's fault could it be...??
Incredible that the the independence fantasy was wholly based on "Scotland's Oil" just a short decade ago.
Redb
My 2025 forecast fcf assumes a $70m drop in capex compared to 2024 as a result of Labour removing investment allowances (from $200m to $130m). I have not reduced it further as Kraken workover planned for Q1 2025 will have been contracted pre election. Reduction of capex likely much higher in 2026 if Labour remove investment allowances as currently stated.
Interesting 2025 and 2026 could be stella FCF years under a more aggressive labour policy before depletion rates start to really bite in 2027 onwards. If Labour stick with current conservative policy the capex could rise quite dramatically with progression of Bressay etc.
My gut feel is that energy policy could become a significant area of debate and differential in election campaign.
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/18/charts-show-scale-europe-electric-car-crash/
Net Zero Watch applauds Humza Yousaf’s climate leadership
Campaign group Net Zero Watch has welcomed the Scottish Government’s decision to abandon its decarbonisation targets.
Net Zero Watch director Andrew Montford said:
“The SNP and their Green partners are the first administration to face up to reality, but they won’t be the last. The era of virtue-signalling climate targets is coming to an end. Humza Yousaf is showing himself a real climate leader.”
Net Zero Watch head of policy Harry Wilkinson said:
“Most politicians across Europe still have their heads in the sand. They will have to change course eventually, but until they do their decarbonisation dogma will continue to wreak havoc in their economies.”
----------------
Reality can be a bitter pill to swallow. Even so Yousaf will probably just ignore this congratulatory message
Does anybody really think that Labour will start with an anti-business agenda? Starmer is suspect (power first - ask Corbyn) but he'd lose Rachel Reeves in a heartbeat if he tried to attack investment or alienate business. O&G isn't the soft target it was even a few months ago. Miliband has the Unions (or so popular theory goes) but they {The Unions] tolerate the ideologists until it hits jobs and pay-packets; then it is a different story. Talk is cheap but it doesn't hurt to remind them what they've said. They are also highly skilled in turning 180 degrees and blaming the decision on somebody else. The word "hypocrisy" is interchangeable with "expediency" in the political lexicon. I also think Labour will want some good headlines as soon as they are elected and maybe the Tories will surprise us with some mitigation on EPL? Don't forget it is the Tories that scuppered us.
Stevo, what do you see as possibility if capex allowances removed from 2025 with a labour government?
Presume capex will fall off a cliff, and continue to harvest cash from Kraken with FPSO lease cost dropping and interest payments dropping
Also does anyone know conditions of the term loan - can it be paid off early?
The buyback will be announced before it commences as per Craig Baxter on recent presentation.
Is this the buy backs beginning? or a deal about to be announced?
Agreed, Modestus. Hartshead is in a position to be sort of saying, mainly to Labour at this point, we can consider to continue and develop this opportunity, but only if you also want us to, and your preference in this regard will be signaled by your decisions on the relevant fiscal policy. EnQuest with regards to developing oil production at Bressay has positioned themselves to be in a similar position and are saying something similar (to Labour). I expect a similar and further honed message to be main one from the industry to the politicians.
Your choice on policies, our choice on investments!
As long as they are heavily subsidized by taxpayers' money :
Electric car demand plunges across Europe
Electric car sales plummeted across Europe last month as demand dried up despite the EU’s push to ban petrol and diesel vehicles by the middle of the next decade.
Sales of battery-powered cars dropped by 11.3pc as demand in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, plunged by 28.9pc, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).
Only 13pc of new registrations were electric, down from 13.9pc in March last year and down from 14.6pc for all of 2023.
Sales of electric cars have stalled despite Europe’s plans to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine cars by 2035.
From the article in Energy Voice about Hartshead Resources :
In the run up to a looming general election, with Labour leading the polls, Mr Lewis said fiscal uncertainty damages not just jobs and investment but receipts to the Treasury to fund public services.
“Jobs are really important. Labour should be about protecting jobs more than anything else, that’s where the Labour Party came from, protecting workers, came out of the trade union movement. This does not do that, what Labour are doing at the moment.
“It doesn’t protect jobs today, and it doesn’t protect jobs in the future because there will be companies that will not be able to survive the period between now and when we have full energy transition jobs in floating wind, CCS, and hydrogen.
“We need to preserve the supply chain and the skilled workforce today to have those available for tomorrow.
“That’s nothing to do with the difference between oil and gas. That’s just about solid industrial strategy.”
The industry has repeatedly pointed out that oil and gas giants’ profits – like Shell, BP or TotalEnergies – are driven by areas outside of the UK and are not made here, despite rhetoric to the contrary from politicians, NGOs and parts of the media.
Mr Lewis added: “When Labour came out and said we’re going to “close the loopholes that returned cash to oil and gas giants”, they were effectively damaging oil and gas minnows and mid cap companies, you know from Harbour and Serica all the way down to us. These aren’t oil and gas giants that they’re having a punitive impact on.
“And so I think the rhetoric is really unhelpful and I think there’s just no recognition of what oil and gas has brought to the UK in terms of, you know, jobs and industry, receipts to the Exchequer, energy security, and it would be nice to see a little bit more balance in the rhetoric.”
"The Labour Party announced on 8 February that they are dropping their pledge to spend £28bn per year on “green investment”.
As part of the briefings around this announcement, the following comments on the windfall tax were reported in the Press.
Labour will introduce a proper windfall tax on the excess profits of oil and gas companies, o we can invest in the clean power we need to cut bills for families.
Labour will fix the holes in the Energy Profits Levy by:
Increasing the rate to 78%, the same rate of tax as in Norway.
Ending the loopholes in the levy that funnel billions back to oil and gas giants.
Extend the sunset clause in the windfall tax until the end of the next parliament, provided there continue to be windfall profits.
Together, these changes would raise £10.8bn over the next five years from 2024-25 to help fund the Green Prosperity Plan.
This amount is based on current OBR forecasts. The amount raised will depend on outturn oil and gas prices and production levels, as well as the level of investment and the amount offset against taxation.
Of course, there is no guarantee that these measures will be introduced if Labour are elected this year.
The 78% rate is not new, but interestingly Labour has in the past said that the tax will be “backdated”, but this pledge was not part of the briefing."
https://cwenergy.co.uk/green-investment-pledge/
I wonder if this is connected to the Telegraph story? One of the main suspects must be Viaro who own RockRose. Of course Labour may just ignore the story. Be interesting to see if the Telegraph pick it up.
"On February 8, as part of its Green Prosperity Plan, Labour pledged a “proper windfall tax” on the industry, extending the existing levy and removing investment allowances currently in place.
Industry experts have warned that would quash any new investment in the sector and see tens of thousands of job cuts."
In Iran we trust....the straights of Hormuz, all those lovely loaded oil tankers, just a few miles off shore.
Another tax disaster in the North Sea.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/551900/windfall-tax-job-cuts-north-sea-hartshead-resources-2/?utm_content=182331334&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-1379070162
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68841141
Nice picture of NIcola and Greta together with a Ugandan climate activists.
Amazing the number of activists on the spectrum (Greta , Chris Packham and don't tell me that Nicola and Roger Hallam are normal). Some of the regular activists would also struggle with a psychological assessment.
*Just think of the tragedy of teaching children not to doubt. -Clarence Darrow, lawyer and author (18 Apr 1857-1938)
"Brigitte Amoruso at Make UK, the trade body for UK manufacturers, said: “Although the UK was at the forefront of wind technology innovation, the Government failed to keep the supply chain within the UK for wind turbines and solar panels.
“As a result, these aspects were outsourced to competing nations such as China and Canada. This is a long standing issue for the UK which must be addressed."
Solved at a stroke by Ed. Just mask subsidies through a public company shortly to be formed. I'd say that we gave been prescient in staying out of the race. We cannot compete with China and the only company that once competed with them actually offshores to China and other countries. That company is Vestas based in Denmark. Denmark has a reputation for glossy expensive to die for designs and technology (Bang & Olufsen) but the bottom line and cheaper manufacturers is a cruel mistress. Private investment isn't attracted to businesses that are fundamentally flawed on a cost basis but will invest if guaranteed subsidies compensate.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262350/largest-wind-turbine-manufacturers-worldwide-by-capacity/
*Vestas lost $1.2 bn 2022 and made a profit of $249m last year. But Ed knows how to do it better.
Redb
I have Enquest FCF break even at $75 oil for 2024 and $65 for 2025. This excludes proceeds from asset sales and working capital movements.
It is anyone’s guess where oil goes in the short term (next 6-12 months). It could go higher if conflict escalates or lower if we start to see global recession as interest rate hikes start to really bite.
Sorry I was being facetious. Posters are keen to model on year highs of Brent prices within hours of them being hit but not so much in the other direction. ENQ are healthy at $80/bbl and I don't think it is prudent to model any higher than that.