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Chains like Dignity or CoOp will have clear guidelines in place covering the handling of 'deceased' bodies, whether that is CV, flu or something more exotic. But I can understand how small firms might be confused in the current situation.
I was looking here a few weeks back. While I can see investment opportunities I never felt CV provided any commercial boost to Dignity then and my view hasn't changed. I saw better investment opportunities elsewhere.
The view of the Chief Medical Officer is that many of the CV deaths are people who would otherwise have died within a year. The stats are that 10% of the 80+ group die within the year. As to any surge in funerals, I'd be surprised if the weekly numbers exceed those seen in a bad flu winter, so they can be handled.
In terms of negative CV impacts on the business this peak and any subsequent drop isn't helpful to managing the business, but I'm not clear what the other impacts might be. As far as I know the outcome of the outstanding CMA regulatory response due this year is the same as was expected two months ago - before CV - so the investment case looks more attractive today. Of course that could be truer tomorrow, but hitting a bottom is luck not judgment.
That said, I see greater rebound potential elsewhere. I'm also cautious of a management that is very generous with its own LLP awards. They'll be looking for a bottom too and have scope to manipulate that timing.
It looks like people who die at home from the virus will could be collected by special teams that are being set up .
that would exclude funeral homes .
‘When the body bags run out, we will close,’ warns UK funeral director'
The Politico article below does not give much confidence...
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-causes-crisis-in-funeral-sector-when-the-body-bags-run-out-we-will-close-warns-uk-funeral-director/
Poor old Dignity, may they rest in peace, but not rise in glory!
Thank you Noheartss for saving me a shed load of cash...…..I could have got in at £4.50 but have so far not bought a single share. The stock market is a crazy world...who would have thought a rock solid business like this could suffer such a fate. But as I have been saying all along the Directors cashed in their chips and ran for the hills......and they don't look as if they will be returning soon.
And I know someone who worked on the MBO in 2004 and one thing Dignity aren’t set up for is surges in deaths. They have to throw costs and overtime at the problem.
It takes a particular skill for the management to destroy 90% of shareholder value in such a predictable, bog standard business as this.
Want to know how many deaths there will be next year ? It will roughly be the same as 2019. Demand is constant and in normal times is pretty smooth (winter peak is fairly small).
They are over loaded with debt, costs are too high, can’t gouge the bereaved any more and will have regulatory burden heaped on them.
The management are utterly hopeless and unmotivated as they have gorged themselves on share options (quickly sold on vesting).
Ahha - don’t lose the faith yet. You rightly called it when people were boasting about Phoenix buying a huge stake at a tenner.
This scummy, scummy company surely got further to fall.
In these dark days it gladdens my heart every time I see them fall further.
Hi Bridgedog m'learned friend, looking at the charts, the shares of DTY are now at a discount to its all time high, of over 90%! This is usually a buy signal to me.....but I have seen shares fall to a discount of 95% before they recover. So maybe they could even go to £1.39 before a recovery. My only concern is whether they can avoid going bust. Presumably, if they need to come" cap in hand" and beg their shareholders for more cash, they will have a rights issue. At the current price, these shares are beginning to look tempting. What do you think?
My golfing buddy owns a funeral parlour, spoke with him last night, i am based in Scotland and he was saying there is already a substantial increase in the turnover and the staff are already getting overtime.
he reckons he will do pretty well over the next few months
The Crems clearly not enough to salvage dignities outlook , The funeral homes are competing with lots of cut price funerals and cannot see them increasing their current position, Total Greed is Paying Them Back.
The Brokers downward facing target of 300p has just been hit - they've got plenty of cash - been operating under a complete costing saving rejig of the business focusing towards cheaper end of the market .... primed to take advantage -
Horrible terminology but its just a share based investment decision 75% of all deaths in the UK are cremated and these people own 49 of the existing 300 Crematoria and 800 of the funeral homes.
They will be getting busier as you would expect the aged to be the poorest demographic and the worst affected by Corona ..
Time to buy.
This share seems to be going right down the pan! And the Directors are still not buying, even though they must have inside knowledge of the increased custom generated by the effects of the virus. If this share cannot prosper in times like these, things must be bad! Does the company have enough resources to pay its debts?
How cheap would they need to go for someone to consider a take over I wonder?
Oh dear, down again! What must be wrong? Not enough people reducing the surplus population?
news just iust in
guys this is really serious
MILAN (Reuters) - Italy ordered the army to move bodies from a northern town at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak where funeral services have been overwhelmed as the government prepared to prolong emergency lockdown measures across the country.
of course funeral costs will fall DTY will do well offering BOGOF to family members
if these jp morgan estimates are right we're screwed thats far worse than the Great Depression
USA Q1 GDP -4% Q2 -14%
Eurozone Q2 GDP -22%
Uk Q2 GDP -30%
French about to choose who lives and who will be left to their own devices
PS I am in the danger zone as are many Dignity can only grow in this unprecedented time many millions already have insurance for funerals, anyway the funerals will be limited by number of attendees to help reduce the growth of this terrible virus
The French government on Tuesday put its 67 million people under lockdown, in an unprecedented act during peacetime, after an almost 20 pct rise in deaths and reported cases in just 24 hours.
Eastern France has been worst hit. Doctors are reporting 10 new critical cases a day, a shortage of equipment and masks, increasing fatigue and growing number of hospital workers also falling ill. They have said they may need to start deciding which patients to prioritise.
France in total has about 5,000 intensive care beds across the country. Out of more than 7,500 cases in France, Mulhouse has some 1,800 with the numbers increasing by 300 a day.
Ohhhhhhhh Noheartss, I thought I could be scathing and rancid at times, but you are something else!
Perhaps they will be able to pay for funerals out of the generous dividends Dignity pays its shareholders.
But as the directors are sitting tight and NOT buying, I can only conclude that this share is a financial death trap! Having said this, someone from the Netherlands has bought a substantial stake in the company, so presumably he must has done his homework. As the death toll increases, so will this share potentially...….horrible isn't it? I suppose you could say the same for companies that sell cigarettes, booze and gambling. All very highly successful businesses built on the misery and poverty of others.
Of course one of the reasons the directors are not buying is that there is a takeover in the wings. Who knows!
And how will people pay for these funerals ?
Is it not likely that families will prioritising their housing costs and food over granny’s funeral. Particularly from sponging leeches like Dignity.
The best they can hope for is better utilisation of the crematorium, perhaps running 24 / 7
A truly rancid company, run by clowns and attracting the most parasitical shareholders, who deserve to lose everything.
Its a nice try at ramping this share......and I can well understand the logic. But why aren't the Directors of the company showing as much confidence and faith in this company as you? Not one share bought even at these prices. Previous comment on this board has detected possible financial problems with this company. It could be just another bear trap...like 95% of all the companies just now.
As the effects of the coronavirus pandemic hit the job market, the damage is likely to be much deeper and longer lasting than seemed possible even a week ago.
Marriott International, the hotel operator, said Tuesday that it would begin furloughing tens of thousands of employees worldwide. Restaurants, coffee shops, gyms and other small businesses have begun laying off workers outright. On Monday, a flood of inquiries from newly jobless New Yorkers crashed the website for the state’s unemployment insurance system.
“Everyone is afraid to hire,” said Angela Gervasi, 24, who is suddenly looking for work after being let go by her employer, a Philadelphia restaurant.
Relatively few companies outside the hospitality industry have announced significant job cuts so far, with many saying they will continue to pay employees even while they are closed.But that cushion seems unsustainable. Most small businesses do not have the financial buffer to pay workers for long if revenue dries up.
As the economic toll of the coronavirus has grown, the White House called for urgent action to speed $1 trillion into the economy,
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told senators that about $250 billion of the stimulus plan would cover the cost of sending checks to Americans to replace about two weeks of their wages. Mr. Mnuchin also said that Mr. Trump had instructed him to allow taxpayers to put off paying income taxes that are due April 15 for 90 days without penalty or interest.
Report warns of more than 500,000 deaths in the U.K.
Supply and demand dictates prices, the prices of funerals are about to explode, corona virus might only take out 1-2 % of the uk population 1-1.5 million in addition to the normal death rate then more importantly the hospitals are cancelling all non urgent operations due to the impending impact corona virus is going to have on them
note my local hospital has turned offices into wards and are asking non medical staff to assist in nursing going forward they dont even have the same protection as we saw with the chinese doctors and nurses
so expect a huge mortality rate caused by not dealing with general operations and a drop in the staff to care for us
this will cause a massive influx of deaths and naturally the price of a funeral will spiral upwards
Where are the Directors? They obviously do not think this share is cheap enough!
Ahha you make a good point, didn’t mean to be rubbing it in the face of any holders, seemed a bit quiet on here so didn’t see the harm, plus I was open about my short position and tbh wanted to warn any PIs about what I thought was coming. Closed out my position now and see that Granular are still adding. Human nature being what it is there could be a rise from here. Will be keeping and eye on it and if it comes close to £4 I’ll be opening another position for the CMA report in April/May which is clearly going to decimate the unprofitable parts of the business. I think they will need to cut down the entire business, sell off what they can on the funeral side and then have a relook at the transformation plan. I’d give it 3 years and you might have a smaller, leaner business to build on.
Ada Boy Bridgedog! It makes a reassuring change to find someone who really knows what he's talking about on this site! What a tragedy that the Director's pension might be under threat. Well they will not be getting any of MY money to bale them out! I've been around a bit and I know that when we enter a major bear market share prices can take a long time to wind down from top to bottom......often in the most severe cases a share , rightly or wrongly can fall from 90 -95% of a previous all time high. In the worst scenario, it can go completely bust! The most important question to ask is can this business survive? The jury is out on this one at the moment.
My feeling is that it really ought to. This should be an ultra safe defensive stock. But as my learned friend Bridgedog rightly surmises, there could be further falls ahead. My deepest sympathy and condolences to present share holders!
Had my accountant friend look at the results, the accounting changes from last year and the inclusion of trust assets and income on the balance sheet. Agrees it’s a complete farce but allowed in the rules, also pointed out likely to be a £20m hole in the pension to be filled this year.
A £3m sale at 8 in the evening? Never seen that before.