Your points are well made and I will certainly be watching Flow with interest although I am not invested at this time. There is certainly some good PR coming out of Flow and sometimes I wonder if it is too good if that makes sense. I was watching the flow board and there was lots of talk of share price rises which all seemed to be happening quite fast. Having had my fingers burned like this on H stocks I elected to sit and watch from the sidelines for the time being. As you say there will certainly be room for more than one technology. GL
Ok. But I will ask you to look at things from another angle. Mention mCHP to the average Joe and he doesn't know what you are talking about. The Baxi Ecogen and WhisperGen have been on the market for years but cost is stopping mCHP going mainstream. For the general public to accept the concept (irrespective of tech) there needs to be a product that can compete cost wise with a regular already used device. The Flow boiler will do that....up front cost to the customer is same as an installed regular condensing boiler. If successful, I expect FlowGroup to have market cap in the £100'smillions over the next 3 years with a globally recognized name, a name linked with mCHP. And this will open the door and lead the way for other mCHP techs in future. And as with most things there will not be a technology or company that will be used exclusively....GL
Like Galvinize I also made a similar decision several years ago to invest in UK listed Hydrogen companies with the knowledge that it was for the long term. I also believe this is the technology of the future and yes sometimes I have doubts but every time I decide to stick to the plan. I regularly read these boards for others views but at the end of the day go with my own view. GLAH.
To a point you're right, I made a decision > 5 years ago that I would pick UK listed H companies to invest in as I believe it is the technology of the future. There weren't many of them about, CWR, CFU, ITM, PPS, AFC, ACTA - I'm in the first 4 with CWR, ITM & PPS making up the bulk of my holdings. While Flow's ORC is interesting it still relies on burning gas to produce average daily heat requirements & electricity - the Ceres unit does not. Whichever way I look at it I just cannot see how this is the future, even in the (relatively short to medium term.).
There's also the point of IP, the fuel cell IP owned I assume is not limited to just mCHP but can be applied across a host of numerous different applications - hence the new direction taken by management.
So I might not know all the detail but my reasoning is sound & my portfolio doesn't look too bad either ;)
Sorry, but I get the feeling you have made a decision just on hearing "fuel cell" and related that to media hype without knowing about the detail. Fuel cells are not new. They go back to the 1800's. Fuel cell is just a battery but needs fuel with hydrogen in it to run. They have been developing them for ages and always saying they are the future....but they are so really expensive with all sorts of operational and degradation issues.... And fuel cell development is more suited to automotive (higher accepted product cost) than a boiler. ORC was developed in 1961 so is a more modern tech in a way but is based on known physical principles and the key point....it is much cheaper than any fuel cell and so is suited to use in a boiler (accepted market cost £1000 to £2000). BTW Flow are not just a service. They have a product, a boiler...a complete developed product going into production with a manufacturing deal in 100,000's. CWR don't even have a reliable cost effective fuel cell part. If you look at any trustworthy mCHP research note for any of these companies you will find a common risk highlighted....route to market.....Flow found the solution to that.....energy supply business....which is a means to an end....mass produced mCHP boiler. ...that is happening now. When someone buys an mCHP boiler, they don't care what the tech is, most won't understand the tech....but they will care about the cost.
I should really read BEFORE I post! So they use an ORC system! Sounds interesting but it doesn't change my view. I'm still 100% sold on Fuel Cells being the future and that's why I'm in Ceres and others put simply It's their tech that attracts me.
sharesport. From my viewpoint Ceres had the boiler practically ready for production some years ago and sadly the plan fell apart. Partly because of some technical/operational issues but I guess principally because of the funding needed for production. Ceres I think were planning to set up their own production which needed ££££££. Now Ceres scrapped that idea and are dependent on other companies incorporating the fuel cell tech in their products so they have lost some control... Flowgroup have zero outlay for production because they have Jabil as the production partner who are investing £millions of their own cash. Without the Jabil deal Flowgroup would be as diluted as CWR and CFU by now and the SP would in single pennies. FLOW SP has dropped today also though so see where that settles... CWR are years away from commercialization of a fuel cell product. We don't even know what the product will be. FLOW have a designed approved product and production is just months away....they have cash and no need to raise cash for 12 months... Nothing certain but Flow is in the lead at the moment...
Thanks for the response Carlton. I was watching flow with interest but it seemed too good to be true so I stayed clear for the time being. Sure enough the price stabilised. Will keep an eye on it. Not sure what to make of Ceres but they seemed fairly confident when they raised money without going to PI's.
Yes they are competing for the same market (according to their company presentations). FlowGroup have overtaken CWR in the mCHP race. CWR were ahead of Energetix at one stage. Commercialization of the fuel cell in a boiler still seems years away....FLowGroup will start production before the end of this year.... sharesport, I noticed you asked similar about CFU. The Bluegen is I suppose is in competition but it is not a boiler so difficult to know how it will fit in.
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