Very detailed report on the company on the link below (click on the download full research link half way down the page). Shame they didn't stick their neck out with a share price valuation against any of the profit scenarios!
"As I posted earlier, I don't think they'll take over, it doesn't make any sense.
ORA are at: 120,283,638
IP2IPO are at something similar: 121,000,000
That means there are: 174,000,000 still to buy.
According to Spreadbet they would have to pay 15p per share or a further £26,100,000; now call me cynical, but that would be ridiculous! It would have made far more sense to come in and buy the whole company at the time of the offer, for much much less.
For me it is strange that IP2IPO came in at 29% but ORA at ~25%. Could it be that the intention was to come in at 25% and then hoover up shares until they're at the 30% to push up the price?
Otherwise why not come in straight away at 29% like IP2IPO did?
Looking at the last annual statement from ORA it states:
"At 31 July 2012, ORA had 14 portfolio businesses of which 12 are quoted on AIM
and the remaining 2 are unquoted. The carrying value of strategic portfolio business
holdings at 31 July 2012 was £76.2 million, of which £73.2 million was represented
by quoted holdings and £3.0 million by unquoted holdings."
The entire 'carrying value' of the CO's holdings is only £73.2million..... paying £20 million+ for Ceres is simply a non starter!
I got out a month or so back - probably wrong but with all these auto trades it seemed to me the sp is being held within a range... The tin hat bit of me says that "Richard Griffiths and controlled undertakings" have been accumulating and only need around 6% more to make an offer for the company (30% - is that right?)
If that is right then we're only a couple of months from the high price.... If they can keep the so around this price for a few more months then they can reduce the high price to offer for the rest of the shares should they cross 30%
Could be talking total tosh mind but that's why I got out
Missed out years back when jumped from 1p > 4p > up to 10p. but I dont think they will progress for some time now. If you are thinking of bailing look at Cyan Holdings. This is a 10year company that seems on the brink of a big break out. I am in this one.
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