Thinking about your comment: "Mention mCHP to the average Joe and he doesn't know what you are talking about"
I think that's fair comment but another thing to note is that fuel cell's are soon to be everywhere, particularly in the automotive industry, this will drive consumer acceptance as they become increasingly aware of what a fuel cell is and what it means.
If the average Joe has spent 15K on a new fuel cell car they are going to be very open, if not pro-actively interested in a fuel cell boiler.
Your points are well made and I will certainly be watching Flow with interest although I am not invested at this time. There is certainly some good PR coming out of Flow and sometimes I wonder if it is too good if that makes sense. I was watching the flow board and there was lots of talk of share price rises which all seemed to be happening quite fast. Having had my fingers burned like this on H stocks I elected to sit and watch from the sidelines for the time being. As you say there will certainly be room for more than one technology. GL
Ok. But I will ask you to look at things from another angle. Mention mCHP to the average Joe and he doesn't know what you are talking about. The Baxi Ecogen and WhisperGen have been on the market for years but cost is stopping mCHP going mainstream. For the general public to accept the concept (irrespective of tech) there needs to be a product that can compete cost wise with a regular already used device. The Flow boiler will do that....up front cost to the customer is same as an installed regular condensing boiler. If successful, I expect FlowGroup to have market cap in the £100'smillions over the next 3 years with a globally recognized name, a name linked with mCHP. And this will open the door and lead the way for other mCHP techs in future. And as with most things there will not be a technology or company that will be used exclusively....GL
Like Galvinize I also made a similar decision several years ago to invest in UK listed Hydrogen companies with the knowledge that it was for the long term. I also believe this is the technology of the future and yes sometimes I have doubts but every time I decide to stick to the plan. I regularly read these boards for others views but at the end of the day go with my own view. GLAH.
To a point you're right, I made a decision > 5 years ago that I would pick UK listed H companies to invest in as I believe it is the technology of the future. There weren't many of them about, CWR, CFU, ITM, PPS, AFC, ACTA - I'm in the first 4 with CWR, ITM & PPS making up the bulk of my holdings. While Flow's ORC is interesting it still relies on burning gas to produce average daily heat requirements & electricity - the Ceres unit does not. Whichever way I look at it I just cannot see how this is the future, even in the (relatively short to medium term.).
There's also the point of IP, the fuel cell IP owned I assume is not limited to just mCHP but can be applied across a host of numerous different applications - hence the new direction taken by management.
So I might not know all the detail but my reasoning is sound & my portfolio doesn't look too bad either ;)
Sorry, but I get the feeling you have made a decision just on hearing "fuel cell" and related that to media hype without knowing about the detail. Fuel cells are not new. They go back to the 1800's. Fuel cell is just a battery but needs fuel with hydrogen in it to run. They have been developing them for ages and always saying they are the future....but they are so really expensive with all sorts of operational and degradation issues.... And fuel cell development is more suited to automotive (higher accepted product cost) than a boiler. ORC was developed in 1961 so is a more modern tech in a way but is based on known physical principles and the key point....it is much cheaper than any fuel cell and so is suited to use in a boiler (accepted market cost £1000 to £2000). BTW Flow are not just a service. They have a product, a boiler...a complete developed product going into production with a manufacturing deal in 100,000's. CWR don't even have a reliable cost effective fuel cell part. If you look at any trustworthy mCHP research note for any of these companies you will find a common risk highlighted....route to market.....Flow found the solution to that.....energy supply business....which is a means to an end....mass produced mCHP boiler. ...that is happening now. When someone buys an mCHP boiler, they don't care what the tech is, most won't understand the tech....but they will care about the cost.
I should really read BEFORE I post! So they use an ORC system! Sounds interesting but it doesn't change my view. I'm still 100% sold on Fuel Cells being the future and that's why I'm in Ceres and others put simply It's their tech that attracts me.
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