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TrAaz has had a great run over the last 9 months.I bought in the late 40s.havnt kept up to date with mcap but obviously the gold rally has pushed the m cap significantly recently.my point is there are producing mines out there cheaper than our mine build.that is not a put down on Cnr resources or possible future .more a negative for a full buyout although never discount any possibility.
Hum is a punt,I expect their costs to come down a fair bit and production to go up but of course nothing is a given in this if their numbers improve I expect them to move well.if not I will exit them again.I am in across Cey,hum,Aaz and Shg as well as cnr.cnr is the only one I am down in but not by much and hoping for blue sky soon.Best to be spread out Imo.quoted Aaz from memory but obviously with the gold price moving their sp has moved up well recently.their stated costs are $550 for this year.There is no doubt that Cnr are way under valued presently.From an investment point of view all those producers have moved up with the gold price.
I have never had issue with marks running of the company and still hope he has the finance in hand.I just worry that the market is not being helpful.and time is passing.we will need to raise equity whatever the finance arrangements.hearing that a toll deal is done would be re assuring for sure and hopefully details of funding.
If you multiply our mcap by the x4 stated that we are undervalued then we get a m cap of around my figure I would be happy with.calibre use Cnr in their comparison and are slightly more undervalued despite b2 and Lukas lundin being invested.anyway hopefully some good news is due soon and move north.
Hi seingred. I think a better accurate analysis of them producers shows a different picture. For example of hum shows they only JUST got towards the $900 mark but look at latest rns of production numbers ..... Operational Overview · 23,807 ounces ('oz') of gold poured in Q1 2019 (up 33% from 17,895 oz in Q4 2018) · Average mill feed grade of 2.46 g/t (1.91 g/t in Q4 2018) · AISC of US$1,297/oz (down 23% from US$1,677/oz in Q4 2018) · Second ball mill construction at Yanfolila remains on budget and on schedule for completion in Q3 2019 · Total recorded injury frequency rate ('TRIFR') of 3.77 Corporate Overview at end of Q1 2019 · Cash of US$13m (US$21m at end of Q4 2018) · Bank debt of US$56m (US$61m at end of Q4 2018) Just be careful there because the aisc can fluctuate and hence market has punished the sp since production. Then you have AAZ which has a market cap closer to £130m not 100m. The extra £30m represents 30p on the cnr so if you were to compare. It’s aisc is about $600, that M/C is nearly 10x condors and to think we could get toll deal through shows there’s considerable gains to be had here. First things first, we need that toll deal to get us some money !!
U,,I,El,as you say,rb has multiple stakes .cnr is a very small part of his pf.He hasn't bought in the last couple of raisings or during the bargain time as far as I am aware.I think Mellon has more say,having been invested much longer,with a larger holding.cnr was put up for sale with him being a director.rb held a good chunk of Dalradian which was sold last year .although it is a nice comparison for cnr I do not think RB made a big profit.less than a bag I think.
I think long term the plan was for a sale here but the market and politics havnt been kind to that scenario.Otherwise we would likely have been in production already and funding further exploration from profits as in Aaz.they have ainsc of around $ 550 and producing 80k oz eq pa. m cap around £100m and no debt
Hum are producing over 100kper year aisc around €900 ish If my memory serves.m cap £55.had their problems but i think they are on their way back.hope so as I bought some last week.
Shg 80 k oz $700 aisc from memory.mcap circa £55
Cey shows that even with problems ,once you get above a certain size them cap gets considerably larger.450 k oz over £1 b m cap.
Ross beauties Equinox bought a producing mine in California for $150 m churning out 140 k oz for decades with a 2 m resource and more exploration targets.aisc about $950 and low grades but for $20 m more than our mine build.
B2 have a slice of Calibre who use Cnr in their comparison chart and are valued lower than Cnr against their peers.cnr will not be the only possible customers for b2 plant but would be very useful.I am sure b2 will make the most they can for it or possibly have another site for it.
Let's hope mc has the finance in hand.I fear your 100m shares maybe hopeful but we will see.I am encouraged by the fact mc sell up incentive is dictated by the share price not the m cap.
Nero,I am very comfortable,I have been in here almost 10 years,sub1 p so patient also.I am happy to wait and see how it pans out and react as we go.I don't expect a take out but I would be happy with 80 p if it were to happen.
RB has multiple stakes in various projects. I'd imagine his strategy is rather similar with all of them. Identifying quality assets with good management, and holding for the long-term.
With respect, JM and RB have already held for many times longer than you have, so I'd say they have already held for the long term. Having done so, I can't see why they would sell up now (at least, not for peanuts), when we are so close (relatively speaking) to production.
I would expect majority debt financing, topped up with toll-mining revenue or equity. You will note I steered clear of an SP prediction - as you say that does very much depend on number of shares at that point and that is probably the biggest unknown. MC will be wanting to keep new equity to a minimum, of that I'm sure - he's in the same boat as we are to some extent. I'm hoping for no more than 100M shares total, so £6 a share for £600M MCap, but we will have to wait and see on that one.
There have been a range of estimates for constuction funds, I think $130M for the 120k oz plant was the last I heard, though presumably that could be cut, possibly in half, if we were able to buy B2's second-hand equipment. That'll be quite easily repaid from a few years profits.
Regarding Seingred's producers - I'd be genuinely interested in hearing more about those. The oz's per year is not that relevant - how much money are they making? (ie. What are their costs?) It would be very helpful to my spreadsheet calculations if I were able to plug in some realistic P/E ratios for producing miners.
Your second scenario I belive is the most likely. Come to think of it, I'm not sure what other option you might mean, other than takeover or production? The only way a sale will happen IMO is if someone offers a fair price for the asset at this stage of development. Given my fag-packet example below, I would think that would be in excess of £1 per share.
It might be helpful to you to check out some of Aguila's posts. He/She seems particularly well informed, and I belived mentioned $150-200M as an estimate for a fair takeover valuation. That seems to me to be as good a range as any. http://www.lse.co.uk/member-info.asp?nick=Aguila
Ekectriclion. I get the point with RB so why does he only have a £750k investment if he’s looking for big returns ? That was my pint in terms of increasing their %. I’m sorry but I strongly disagree with the theory that RB and JM are here for the longer term, probably Jim is interested hence his recent dividend money investment but we need to be REALISTIC and say MC is carrying condor and he calls the shots. Also you mention £600m market cap and the profit which sounds amazing ..... How will they get there ? At what cost ? Doubling / trebling of shares in issue hence market cap increases also. Debt ? Repayments ? As seingred mentioned you have 100k - 150k producers valued at £200m or so and I can’t really see the increase as you put it otherwise the big investors would have been all over this. For me there’s 2 options. 1, b2 cash offer - short term 2, toll agreement or debt finance and production long term. There’s no other way — I’m my opinion.
RB got rich by being more interested in the full value of the assets, rather than looking for any particular percentage return. He's also a very patient man. Far more patient than the vast majority of PIs on here. Unless Nicaragua becomes the next Somalia, one day, Condor will be a near-as-dammit 200k oz a year producer. One day the gold price *could* be 1500$/oz or more. That'll be $160M+ profit, every single year, for 25 years, if there's 5M oz all together. What P/E ratio might be appropriate for a company like that? No idea TBH. 5 would be criminally undervalued under most circumstances. That's a £600M+ MCap. As always, that's not a prediction, and things could go wrong, and it'll take time and money to get there. But when it comes to RB's intentions? He's looking for the big prize, not a piddling percentage return, and he'll wait.
Seingred is happy with 80p a share? Well then let's sell up, as long as you're happy. Better get comfortable because no one is selling to B2 in the foreseeable future. Key investors know the potential of our concessions, no one is giving this away in a bear market.
Im with MB, investors dont always cling on tight emotionally to a share just because they want a 100% return. Win some, loose some. Condor is probably just a small portion of their portfolio.
MC can always be offered a role to develop the mine with B2. He'll get a juicy salary, option and finally see his baby grow. JM and RB, they may well just settle for a small return on their investment.
Good to see seller have cleared, now we need the news.
Nero you have. Point but listen to this Nd maybe you will see different !!!! Is this the only company RB andJM have money invested ? Probably their least amount portfolio and $ terms. Does it make a different if they get a cheque for $5m or $10m ..... probably not. Is this the only investment for MC .... YES and will he accept a low ball offer .... NO but as I’ve mentioned before any takeover would involve MC STAYING on the new company bod or with a position to see it through hence he’s still in charge of his work and eases the load on ceo Johnson. You have to understand that investors move around, they win some and they lose some, no investor is with any 1 stock forever hence we have all been praying that the sellers were not either JM or RB. I’m terms of valuation it’s hard be political issues and then B2 have mover / mine advantage to negotiate a price and MC has the funding issue to deal with. It’s a good argument for and against here but I would be too set on RB or JM having as much influence as MC here. I’m sure MC calls the shots and personally as a few have pointed out here.... I would like to see them ADD to their positions if what Beto reckons is a figure they won’t accept. Why have they not turned their 5%-10% holdings in to 10-15% ???? Its good to be optimistic but you must always be REALISTIC and understand that nothing is set in stone. Let’s get toll agreed or clarify what this NDA is about and then think about finding the mine but me personally would also luv a cash offer so let’s see what Santa brings us. Ho ho ho
Nero,not saying it is gonna happen,but I would be quite happy with 80p a share.R B is pragmatic.I do not think that he received a better return in Dalradian.personally I don't expect a take out but when 80,-100 k oz producers are valued at 60-100 m 120m mine build and £80 m to buy doesn't sound like small bucks!
Come on tolol deal.
Sell the company for £1 a share?! Haha sure I bet MC, JM and RB are itching to do that deal and take a cheque for $4m, $8m and $5m respectively! Oooh big bucks! What a great reward for decades of hard work! Honestly I really can't tell if you lot are being serious...
Willowman - what you have stated could be spot on but it all depends on sentiment. If gold gets the push we hope for then $1500 is on the cards and with that a toll deal for production would look amazing on the balance sheet. That would cause the sp to rocket along with achieving gold sake prices of $1400+ and the strong sp. I’m with seingred on this, I think B2 would probably pay £50-60m now rather than see the company valued at £200m in a few years time, I’m only basing this valuation on a gold price significantly higher than the current price. If gold and gold miners come back in to fashion towards year end and we get the toll to produce by then as MC said it would take 4 months post agreement then it could just be the perfect storm to achieve maximum value. Only thing I can see which can also be seen as a positive is the sells that will come through as many have accumulated at low prices. Atleast we will get the change to sell when we wish, I wonder what next week has in store. NDA would only take this long if is what a serious matter, a simple toll agreement would be ironed out very quickly especially after the independent grades B2 took and verified. Good luck. Glad we are seeing positive vibes here, just need the permits and the toll news to get the wheels in motion here.
£75 million is £1 a share, sounds great to me but I'm not sure how we would get from 20p to £1 without development on the ground. I can't believe that anyone will pay such a huge premium even though I do believe that they would be getting a bargain.
On the other hand some early cash flow would boost the share price and provide oodles of spare cash to carry out zillions of meters of drilling (and juice the share price). Thus we could prove up loads more ounces (more juice for share price) and put meat on the bones of the gold district idea (yet more share price juice). Then attract a bid with a premium (you guessed it, more juice!)
Then I think £2 per share or just £150 million for the whole outfit would still be a bargain.
Oh how I do love to dream away the afternoon!
T,find it hard to imagine those b2 test results will not have an end result.There are a few possibilities .generally timescales are longer than expected.would be good to have a defined plan and permits by the end of summer.personally I would be happy if a sale came in between £60-75 m.
Hi
Yes we are at a crossroads here now - we are really at the mercy of b2gold as well, depending on whether they want out of Nicaragua or are happy to stay.
My guess is that CNR will probably already have agreed terms of a toll mining agreement between the various nicaraguan b2gold mines/management - but they probably need to wait on that being ratified by B2Gold HQ.. Its them who have to decide on the overall country strategy.. and thats whats taking the time/ causing the delay
And if they want to stay in country - will they want to strengthen CNR by turning them into producers and then have to pay a premium to buy them over later.. 40k oz at $250oz profit = $10M a year - the market cap is only $20M currently. B2gold could buy them for a minor equity raise - they have a market cap of 3.8B! They could offer $40M for CNR and its literally a drop in the ocean..
So they just buy them on the cheap right now and do the toll mining themselves... And make 100% of the profit not 50%... ? It seems like a no brainer to everyone concerned.. except MC and JM wont want to sell this project for peanuts.. as shareholders I feel like we will soon need to stand firm and refuse any low ball offers..
regards
T123
Yes pog looking good.good times to be producing.bought a few hum this week as a punt.
Everything heading towards good times for gold I reckon.I have been spreading across quite a few over the last 9 months.
Nero,Bolton going will only mean another hawk as replacement I only.
As far as Nicaragua is concerned,I thought the considered opinion on here was sanctions will not affect Cnr.you cannot normalise what happened last year .nicaragua was suspended by socialist international and Michelle Bachelet recently called the self amnesty illegal.neither hardly right wing,Bachelet a former Chilean socialist leader.obviously Kremlin media have a different take on things.
https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=24684&LangID=E
I know what you mean simms. There were reports recently that Trump was growing tired of Bolton's incompetant warmongering, after his embarrasing failure to replace Maduro in Venezuela with his puppet Guaido. If this latest attempt at triggering a war against Iran fails, or if Putin checks the Americans once more I hope his credibility in the White House will be lost and Trump fires him.
That would be brilliant for many reasons but more specifically for us investors as with Bolton gone, US antagonism against Nicaragua should all but dissappear and the political situation should normalise.
well every little dance between Iran and the US will lead to a rising gold price. There is so much instability on the horizon surprised gold has not risen faster sooner. Trumps larger than life mouth and Iran backed into a corner does not normally lead to sensible decisions. prefer gold was rising for reasons of future debt crisis of Italy spilling into the European banking system.
Gold has broken major resistance of $1350 which is excellent news. If this holds in to the weekend and early next week then we are looking at no stopping until $1500 and then if that goes $1700. My gosh if MC can announce a toll agreement within the next 2 weeks I feel the market makers would seriously give this sp a big mark up ..... previously I was thinking a 20-30% mark up but now I can see a 50% mark up with all this gold news buzzing around. Good luck MC, think the delay might have just played a blinder for the sp. amazing how sentiment can change within a few days. Gold is now in okay big time. Needs to stay above $1350 for the major spike to kick in.
You mean 1353? :) Must admit when I saw that I had to double check the price!
1253 with good news here who knows