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Whats the BOD's next move to bring this stock bac to life? When will we see the
fruits from their proposed changes? When is the next update meeting/ announcement/ update
for shareholders??????
The dividend was nice, but need to pump life back into the stock.
Aye agreed.
Garbage company - could have been merged into one of the largest net producers in Africa alongside Tullow but instead... they got shafted my share holders wanting a large one off payment.
Wasted potential and now it has nothing worthy of note
Done .
Please sign and share on all social media platforms
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657294
Hi SpArmada
I did see the data somewhere on the Capricorn Website that your looking for (sadly can't remember where exactly).
The terms are not the same virtually every field has slightly differently terms.
LOTM
Please sign and share
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657294
Does anyone know where I can find the conditions to calculate the net entitlement in Egypt? Thanks
I've been monitoring this share thinking it might be worth a punt.
But reading the february rns gives me the impression Capricorn is truly scuppered.
1) the storage facility won't be in place, constructed and fully tested & certified until at least another month or 2 (looking may at best)
2) woodside have absolutely no incentive to achieve the 72hr continuous production and 30,000 barrells of 'saleable' oil. In fact, it is in Woodside' best interests to avoid it by the june deadline as then rhey don't lose in paying out minimum £25M to Capricorn.
3) I might be 'nieve' but..... if I was Woodside i could easily run production for 70hrs, shutdown, restart after 1 hr.... "rinse & repeat'. Capricorn can't do a damn thing about it.
4) the likelyhood of the Senegal government giving in to rescinding the £25M tax+interest+penalties is seriously doubtful. At best Capricorn will have to take it through the international courts... costing millions with little hope of success.
5) The government will (imho) immediately 'arrest' any £25M+ tax etc from Woodside if they were to meet the production deadline. Woodside would have no choice in the matter. Partly because the government will likely threaten their production license, but mostly because the government will establish it as a "Priority One" debt..... just as the UK government and any other government does.
So, my question is this..... how the Hell is Capricorn going to get over all those hurdles?
What are their plans to even negate any of the above?
Note: any 'contract', guarantee etc with Woodside for payments etc is legally null & void if (aka when) the government claims a Priority 1 debt.
Hi Varnish,
I hadn't seen the $8 Billion news, so that might help explain the rise in the share price today.
I'm not sure how far $8 Billion will though, given Capricorn were due $173M at the last notification, so there partner will be due the same amount so roughly $350M that's overdue just to 2 company's what about all the others in the O&G industry & then in other area's of the economy as well.
So it may help unfreeze some of it, which will be welcome.
The country needs power & the O&G's company's are going to invest as little money as possible until they get paid. Which means production will be less & as a consequence they'll need to import more energy to meet the countries need & that will be costly for the country.
LOTM
Thanks for your informative posts LOTM. I’m no expert just someone who’s held this share for too long! Anyway I see that Egypt has secured $8bn of funding from the IMF today. Could this help Capricorn secure some/all of the receivables due from Egypt? It may even explain the slight up tick in the share price today but WDIK
Hi Tren,
As Gruyere said, Capricorn have no input or involvement in Sangomar at all, there just crossing there fingers & hoping for the best. All or nothing rests on that 30th June date (& if that's achieved then they need $55+ average for Brent for 6 month's for $25M or over $60 for $50M.
If they'd structure the deal similar to the Waldorf one in the north sea regarding contingent payments they would be in a far better position than they are. They've lost out on a massive sum of money. FAR were far smarter with there deal with Woodside, its production based (similar to the Waldorf one) & it looks like they'll get all or the vast majority of there contingent payments over the next 3 years.
GLA
LOTM
Don't think so. Their update on Sangomar specifies what first oil achieved is.
Has Capricorn any involvement with meeting the 30th June deadline other than crossing their fingers?
Have been away for a while. Can someone summarize why the stock is in down so much? Damn, I thought the new BOD had the ship steady?????
Hi GrumpusLOL,
At least you saved some money compared to today's close, that was an awful auction for anyone still in the stock.
Hopefully the buy-back picked up at least 50,000 shares for the day with an average price of say £1.13
The 2 lots shorting the shares are sure raking in the £'s at the moment, the share price decline seems to have accelerated of late - no doubt in part because of them.
Market cap is down to virtually £100M now (a touch over £103 as it stands) who would have thought it.
So tempting to start picking up a few shares now at this price, but where is the sign of a bottom ? is £1 or less achievable/realistic ......
GLA
LOTM
Hi Johnnytaffia,
Yes I'm still watching it. It's getting to the point where I might dip my toe back in.
In all honesty thou, its really hard to do so when there is absolutely no visibility whatsoever on Egypt & what's going on there & knowing just how bad things really are.
A year ago the new board promised shareholders that they would be kept fully informed & the exact opposite has been true since late October & the cancellation of the Egypt update due for 30th November. 3 month's later & no sign whatsoever of when it will take place (if at all).
The buy-back is getting some really cheap shares at the moment (well relative to the price before ie £1.80) because of that information vacuum. Only time will tell if its a bargain price or not.
Good Luck All
LOTM
Me, too Grumpus. Out after 20 years but just can't help being nosey and watching how this company is being destroyed. Got out quite some time ago last summer soon after the last divi payment. Juts can't help being ghoulish and checking the spiralling SP.
I’ve made a petition – will you sign it? I need 5 people to sign the link to make it live
Click this link to sign the petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657294/sponsors/new?token=EMIgM07k9Zj3akpbgXJc
My petition:
Make short selling shares illegal in the UK, like Germany and others.
Short selling of stocks in the UK causes instability in companies share prices. In many cases £millions can be wiped off the value of a company by coordinated groups of short sellers spreading misinformation and rumours, causing investors to panic and sell their stock.
How on earth can some other company loan out something you own without your consent and the company or person who has borrowed it use it to influence the market in the opposite direction with the massive percentages of shares they are able to borrow and not own outright? Its fraudulent and corrupt, legal theft authorised by the government and needs to be banned and stopped.
Click this link to sign the petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657294/sponsors/new?token=EMIgM07k9Zj3akpbgXJc
FPSO has now arrived at the Sangomar field.
So they will be able to start the process of anchoring it & then connecting all the cables & pipes etc to it.
Woodside's next report might be interesting for timelines, the end of April one certainly will be!
LOTM
It seems you are the last small investor left on this BB.
I fear the masterclass in how to make a billion dollars disappear is now complete and there is no hope left,
I'm out after more than a decade.
C Ya.
I was thinking about the pre-close update over the weekend & actually its quite scary when you put 2 & 2 together.
You go back to the half year report from 14th September (which is just over 4 months ago) & back then they were forecasting production for the year at the bottom end of there previous range of 32-36,000 boepd exiting 2023 at over 34,000. Now this new guidance was a mark down of expectations.
Yet in the pre-close announcement, production came in at just 30,222 boepd for 2023 (roughly 2,000 boepd below the forecast in just 3 months timewise).
Further more the "Teen and Badr El Din (BED) LLP projects are now complete and beginning to ramp up" ( they were part of the reason they were forecasting the 34,000 exit rate that we ended up over 10% below)
Now even with those projects factored (and not reached peak production yet) in Capricorn are indicating that production for 2024 is likely to decline by 20 - 30%.
That's 20-30% on 30,222 boepd not the original range they expected but missed considerably & its also after taking into account "flush" production from the recently added wells.
Pretty scary stuff when you think about the company's future & how quickly production might fall in 2025 also & how they turn things around on the development side.
As I said not getting that November Presentation really does mean Shareholders are in the dark & not in a good way.
They have a lot of explaining to do.
LOTM
FPSO started moving again about 07:00 GMT today Sunday 28/01 & is heading towards Senegal.
LOTM
After reflecting overnight on the update, the biggest thing that is missing is an actual update on what was achieved in Egypt in 2023.
The postponement of the Egypt presentation at the end of November is in reality a major blow to investors, because we have no idea of what was achieved for the roughly $93M of Capex spent in Egypt in 2023.
There has been no drilling updates or detailed reports giving the licence name, the well, what was found, if so the flow test results & if its on production yet or not & one of the most important parts new reserve numbers
Yes there has been some snippets given to us, but not a real in depth insight into it all. Without that investors have no real idea if the money has been well spent or not.
From what I've read, it doesn't look like we've found that much in the way of new reserves. The more wildcat drilling side of things seems to have just turned up dry holes even with 3D seismic.
The only successes seem to have been step out wells from existing producing wells.
The long & short of it is this, if we don't have a baseline telling us what we have then its impossible to tell if we're actually making progress or not. Or if we are simply sending good money after bad & would be better off just producing what we've got (other than in-fill locations) & taking the money & running rather than spending it on Capex where we're losing it & getting no real return on it.
LOTM
Looking at the actual numbers,
Amount outstanding from Egypt $173M compared to $170M end Oct with $139M overdue at that point.
$190M in cash & loan debt of $114M compared to $158M with loan debt of $113M in Oct. So that's a gain of $32M in cash but when you take into account the Waldorf payment of $48M it means a spend of $16M in just 2 months ! plus another $1M loan increase. The buy-back would account for roughly $2M of that $17M spend.
Also Capex is meant to be around $120M which is in the bottom half of the $117M - $127M range from October (there wasn't a published Capex spend number to the end of October).
Not as rosy a picture as you might think.
LOTM