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Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)



Share Price: 121.75Bid: 122.15Ask: 122.20Change: 1.45 (+1.21%)Riser - Centamin
Spread: 0.05Spread as %: 0.04%Open: 119.40High: 123.00Low: 117.80Yesterday’s Close: 120.30


Share Discussion for Centamin PLC


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mrtibbles
Posts: 8,124
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:121.75
Trump also told CNBC?
Today 17:34
I'm not thrilled" about the Fed raising rates, Trump told CNBC anchor Joe Kernen in the first such comments from a US president since Ronald Reagan challenged Paul Volcker over his anti-inflation rate-hike policy of the early 1980s.
"All of this work goes into doing what we're doing...and every time they want to raise rates again," said Trump. "I am not happy about it.
"We have been ripped off by China for a long time," Trump also told CNBC, threatening to impose tariffs on all $500 billion of China's annual imports and adding that when he asked Beijing officials how this had been allowed to happen, they said "No one ever complained before".
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

Trump seems to forget how many US bonds the Chinese have bought over the years and also how the US has ripped off the rest of the world for so long!
 
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,124
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.20
re it might be choppy
Today 11:25
Re July 18, 2018 + Gold Breaks Down Christopher Aaron

Not what most gold wholesalers are doing. at present!

This is a 100% paper centric view blinkered to the physical market and to a degree self-fulfilling,

However, we haven’t seen such a bullish stricture since 2008.

Further information to come on this over the weekend.
Rebess
Posts: 3,112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:119.95
Re Aton
Today 08:31
Hi Somnamna - Imagine the uproar if there is the scrapping of production-share but where licences granted under said conditions remained valid. - There was always a suspicion that this might happen and that some of the applicants were aware of this. - Lord dear lord! - It would leave Centamin with egg on it's face. - IMO
Somnamna
Posts: 156
Opinion:Hold
Price:120.30
Wood Mackenzie
Today 06:43
Has anyone more recent news re the new mining strategy than this link from 3 months plus ago? The new strategy is supposed to be ready bu August 2018.

"In revealing plans to develop the sector to optimise Egypt’s benefit from mineral wealth, the Petroleum and Mining Minister Tarek el Molla noted that the current contribution of mining activities to the GDP does not level up to the tremendous mining capabilities the country is abundant with.

The first step in this process involves engaging Wood Mackenzie to study the country’s mining sector and lay out an appropriate development strategy by August this year. Wood Mackenzie is a global energy, chemicals, renewables, metals and mining research and consultancy group with an international reputation for supplying comprehensive data, written analysis and consultancy advice.

The Minister’s remarks came during the signing of a contract between Wood Mackenzie and Egypt’s Enppi company, which will offer logistic and technical support for the consultancy group. The Minister said the new strategy would include setting up mining industries and developing areas surrounding mining activities."

http://www.africanminingnetwork.com/news/egypt-includes-mining-in-development-strategy-comment-by-yolanda-torrisi/
Dansul
Posts: 196
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.30
Russia shows off Putin's 'super wea
Thu 20:22
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-19/Days-after-Helsinki-summit-Russia-shows-off-Putin-s-super-weapons.html

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia on Thursday broadcast a series of videos showing the testing and operation of a new generation of nuclear and conventional weapons, days after Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed how to avoid an arms race.

President Putin announced an array of new nuclear weapons in March in one of his most bellicose speeches in years, saying they could hit almost any point in the world and evade a U.S.-built missile shield.

Both he and Trump, who held their first summit in Helsinki on Monday, have spoken of the need to avoid an arms race, and Putin has spoken of the urgent need to work to extend the new START strategic arms reduction treaty.

On Thursday, the Russian Defence Ministry aired Hollywood-style footage of many of the new weapons Putin unveiled in March being tested or in action.

It showed a Russian MiG-31 fighter jet taking off from an airfield carrying the new Kinjal hypersonic missile and then launching it while airborne.

MiG-31 jets which patrol the Caspian Sea have been armed with the Kinjal since April, the Interfax news agency reported.

The ministry also said it was preparing to conduct flight tests of a new nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik or Storm Petrel.

The first footage of a live launch of the Avangard hypersonic missile, which Moscow says boasts “a glider maneuvering warhead,” was also aired along with a clip of the heavy Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.

Putin’s boasts about the new weapons have been greeted with scepticism in Washington, where officials have cast doubt on whether Russia has added any new capabilities to its nuclear arsenal beyond those already known to the U.S. military and intelligence agencies.

Writing by Tom Balmforth; Editing by Andrew Osborn

GLTA,
Dan
Dansul
Posts: 196
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.30
Trump Pushes Gold Higher
Thu 20:14
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-19/President-Donald-Trump-Pushes-Gold-Higher-Not-Thrilled-With-Rising-Interest-Rates.html

President Donald Trump has rescued the gold market as prices have significantly bounced off their lows following his criticism of the Federal Reserve.

Thursday, in an interview with CNBC, Trump expressed his frustration with the U.S. central bank saying that he is “not thrilled” with rising interest rates. He added that higher interest rates could disrupt the nation’s economic recovery.

“I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up,” he said in the interview.

"Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again. I don't really — I am not happy about it. However, at the same time, I’m letting them do what they feel is best.”

Gold has benefited from Trump's comments, with prices rallying more than $10 since the interview was published. Prior to that, the yellow metal was hovering near a fresh 12-month low.

GLTA,
Dan
Dansul
Posts: 196
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.30
Gold Looks Good As Recession Fears
Thu 20:10
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-19/Gold-Looks-Good-As-Recession-Fears-Grow-State-Street-Global-Advisors.html
In an interview with Kitco News, George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investments at State Street Global Advisors, said that he doesn’t understand the recent price action in gold as the market is ignoring significant economic issues.

His comments come as gold prices have hit a new 12-month low with many analysts now watching critical support at $1,200 an ounce. August gold futures last traded at $1,222.30 an ounce, down nearly 0.46% on the day.

"We are still mired in a low and negative interest rate enviroment but what I am particularly worried about is that the yield curve is flattening and could eventually invert,” he said.

Milling-Stanley noted that a yield curve inversion, where short-term yields rise above long-term yields, has correctly predicted a recession seven times.

Currently, the spread between 2-year bond yields and 10-year bond yields is at 24 basis-points, the narrowest range in 11 years, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

“I would expect investment demand for gold to rebound if we slide into a recession and I think there is a significant chance of doing that,” he said.

GLTA,
Dan
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,124
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.30
RE: How Fair Is Egypt's Profit Share?
Thu 19:02
Is the CEY P/E before or after profit sharing?
Post sharing – it is worked out on EPS

if before then in reality the pe is higher for it does seem absurdly low?
It is low as the market has yet to catch up that capex will be coming right down in 2017/2018/2019

Am I correct assuming CEY pay the government 40% free cash flow rising to half?
Yes – 1st 2 years of full cash flow share is 40%, the next 2 years is 45%, and thereafter 50%

Would that then double the P/E, or is free cash flow and earnings quite different, because of the way capital expenditure is depreciated, though eventually the same, or as asked does profit share come out before the p/e is calculated?
EPS is after all the depreciation etc. The cash flow to the government comes out of the free cash generated – so all capex already done, costs paid (salaries etc), etc.

Hope this helps,!

Tibbs
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,124
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.30
How Fair Is Egypt's Profit Share?
Thu 19:01
How Fair Is Egypt's Profit Share? Dec 2016
"The Australian minerals industry faced an effective tax rate of 54.3% in 2014/15 – the highest burden for nearly a decade, new research by advisory firm Deloitte Access Economics has shown.
The Annual Tax Survey, commissioned by the Minerals Council of Australia (MCA), showed that more than half of the industry’s profits are paid to federal and state government...
The tax ratio has steadily increased since the turn of the decade, from around 40% in 2010/11, to 54% in 2014/15."

So perhaps , Egypt's profit share is neither the bogeyman nor the death knell of gold mining investment when compared to the so called 'safe & modern' mining jurisdiction of Australia. Legalities aside, Egypt also has the benefit of an economical labour force, a desert full of untapped resources and the absence of rigorous environmental liabilities.
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/australian-miners-paid-more-than-half-of-201415-profits-in-tax-2016-12-09

Subject: RE: How Fair Is Egypt's Profit Share?

50% is the average – it is the same in the US when you combine VAT, corporation tax, import duties on equipment etc. get much more above 55% and it becomes very difficult.

Remember with Sukari that the capex has been paid for already. We are now dealing with a free cashflow tax at 40% for 2 years, then 45% for 2 years and then 50% thereafter.

Even at the latter end of this Centamin are getting a fair deal.
Rebess
Posts: 3,112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.30
Re it might be choppy
Thu 17:35
Hi Sotolo - It's a frustrating share to be involved with this one. No doubt as a LTH you've experienced them all in your time. - The other day you asked whether the P/E ratio was calculated before or after profit-share. - As profit-share is treated as a cost of business expense (I think) the P/E metric is calculated on gross earnings and therefore does not take-in profit-share. - It's a good question though and if I'm wrong I'd be grateful if someone with superior knowledge could enlighten.
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,124
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.85
re RE: It might be choppy in the
Thu 15:00
Well at least Christopher Aaron states that that Fed are manipulating things and there is little that anyone can do.

So many know the Cartel are controlling the metal prices using paper and the best option anyone has is to watch the charts?

Won't the Fed be watching the charts?

Although the Fed has the advantage in that they are pulling the levers and so know when the charts will move one way or the other!

If a betting shop or Casino were operated like this they would be shut down!
Sotolo
Posts: 378
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:119.25
RE: It might be choppy in the miners...
Thu 13:42
Winstonwolf be careful, on ths board you will be discourteously criticised if you suggest the gold price or cey might fall, mislabelled as a shorter who doesn't have any shares trying to talk the price down. Sadly the price of gold and cey continues to fall with short periods of respite, but don't say that here, or suggest it might be because buyers look at both the charts and fundamentals and don't want in. So I now try just to read the comments here and not respond.
However yours was such a good link and post, and I can't help raising the question that I discussed on this board with Uncertain a long while back: I am a long term holder and as such wonder was the 2011/12 1800 peak the start of a long bear and the rise from the Xmas 2015 low of around 1040 to 1360 a dead cat bounce, or did gold actually reverse in Dec 2015, and are we seeing a dead cat fall from 1360 in a bull that started in 2015. Sadly the former is looking increasingly likely. if so we have very large drops in the miners to come, and Centamins marginal changes in production are almost imaterial. However as we all know gold can do the unexpected, and like anything when all have sold the price should reverse. But for me the gloom is not enough yet, so I continue to watch this board hard, when post like yours are approved of and even supported, and the tenor is gold will only fall, well that will b the time to buy... all only my opinion but thanks for the link as most 'gurus' are salesmen with every interest in talking the price up.
Investinvalue
Posts: 95
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:118.80
Looking
Thu 12:33
to BUY in here. Only a small holding for portfolio.
Winstonwolf
Posts: 285
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:119.55
It might be choppy in the miners...
Thu 11:39
...for some time. See below video for info. I have sold a small portion off in anticipation of buying lower based on the below video. Lets see what happens.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wisaZi7Lrg
Rebess
Posts: 3,112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.70
Re Q2
Wed 19:55
Hi tibbs - I'm concerned about Q3 and how reliable their assurances prove to be about restoration of production. - As has been pointed out earlier, we need some pretty good numbers to come through now to fulfil said assurances.
Credibility and trust on the line so far as board of management are concerned. - And if they fail/mislead again, then what? - Well, for a start, it will be shareholders who will have to bear the pain again.
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,124
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.70
Q2
Wed 19:24
I think when the results are announced they will confirm effects of the complete failure by the management to mitigate underground production risk which has compounded the already damaging effects of the overground transitional grades on the production guidance announced in the Q1 statement!

Sadly Centamin seem to be ignoring investors communications,burying their heads in the sand and relying upon Buchanon to try and gloss over a situation that should instead have been managed properly
sparkle_and_fizz
Posts: 338
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.70
RE: Re Shipments
Wed 17:59
Good question Rebess. Auson was that just a throwaway line (which is ok) as I was also surprised how different the figures are from the Egyptian Media for qtr2 were to cey.
Rebess
Posts: 3,112
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.70
Re Shipments
Wed 13:31
Auson - Hi. - Your suspicions re latest gold-shipment. - Can you expand on that? - It might stimulate a discussion on the topic. - Hopefully.
casparoni
Posts: 38
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.55
RE: RE: Centamin up
Wed 11:47
Many thanks for your comments - helpful as ever.
Somnamna
Posts: 156
Opinion:Hold
Price:120.95
RE: Shipment
Wed 11:26
Thanks Sparkle much appreciated.
uncertain
Posts: 1,844
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:121.05
I am not in CEY at present
Wed 11:26
but it is good to see my pessimism about the sp proved wrong. It may be a currency thing as suggested below, but anyway good to see some value coming back to those of you caught in the sudden drop. This remains a good share to be in and I may rejoin you all at some point in the future. GLALTH
ton-fra-cen
Posts: 21
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.75
RE: Centamin up
Wed 11:04
Gold price is up in terms of GBP. Pound has dropped from $ 1.32 to 1.30 approx
Sotolo
Posts: 378
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:120.75
RE: Centamin up
Wed 10:56
Exactly as Winstonwolf says
The share proce looks forward
So first it depends where the market thinks gold will go
And second if the market thinks the production setback is just a blip
Winstonwolf
Posts: 285
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:119.90
RE: Centamin up
Wed 10:43
Sometimes miners move pre-emptively. Miners have underperformed recently even though the gold price didnt really move indicating to me that the people buying miners anticipate a correction in the gold price. Now that a large gold price correction has occurred the gold miners may be anticipating higher gold prices in the future, again pre-emptively.




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