In page 37 of the May 2016 Investor Presentation Centamin states the Supreme Administrative Court suspended the ruling on 20 March 2013 and stated:
“on the basis of the copy of the exploitation lease executed by the Minister of Petroleum presented to the Supreme Administrative Court, the annulment of such lease by the Administrative Court was likely to be cancelled upon the issuance of a judgment on the merits of the case.” SAC statement following the unanimous decision on 20 March 2013 to suspend the original AC ruling”
However in the presentation Centamin however does not comment on the legal basis of the “unfair exploitation lease claim” and why, L32 excepted, the unfair contract claim is unlikely to succeed notwithstanding there is a signed exploitation lease. Clarity on this aspect would make for a complete picture.
Plus Points: Costs reducing, Gold Price up$150 - $200 per oz over 2015 average, 30,000 oz more forecast to be mined this year, if 1st Qtr 16 figures repeated thro 2016 this will be exceeded by additional 40,000 oz+.
Most people don't know just how small the gold and silver markets are. New interest in gold as an insurance or sector rotation after being shunned for 4 years could lead to dramatic upside moves.
CEY is a best in class gold co with a court case anchor. Without the court case it is best in class without uncertainty and free to find true price discovery. When the next cohort of institutional investors want a "decent" holding of this FTSE 350 Index co and GDX constituent they will have to pay up...and the higher prices momentum will bring in more buyers.
It only seems like 5 minutes ago that the sp was around 50 to 60p and we were debating whether the end of the court case would take us up to a £1 or if the expected win was pretty much priced in, and here we are above £1 and still no conclusion, although we do have a date for a pie crust ruling (looks good but easily broken ) however like tibbs said about his conversation with his man on the train that there are a lot of large institutional investors with a finger or fist hovering over the buy button that are precluded while this case is not settled and will have to pay dearly to prise enough shares off people to satisfy their requirements. In the meantime centamin will hopefully keep turning out great results quarter after quarter year after year, and as someone said before Centamin is an ambitious company with big plans, so I for one don't intend anyone getting their hands on my shares on the cheep not after ruining several pairs of underpants over the last few years! Spot64
you are right of course, I am emotional at times about this share, partly as you say because I am a long term holder, but also because I believe passionately in the company, a belief that is reinforced by the view of so many others far better qualified to give an opinion on this board including yourself!
for your thoughtful response. I feel many of us long term holders have both an emotional and a rational response to CEY. And they are all valid. After a 14 week rise we were due a healthy profit taking pullback.
Part of the explanation for CEY's volatility is perfectly healthy. With 1.15bn shares in issue and a share price still relatively cheap around 111p CEY investors have the dual advantages of affordability of price per share and liquidity from the large number of shares in circulation. Those attributes also mean that investors are more likely to go in and out. Post Court case I anticipate more institutional long term shareholders will just buy and hold for the divi but effectively reduce the available shares to trade. That will likely reduce the trading volatility along with a steadily rising price.
On down days I think you are right that MM's can prod CEY a bit further than other co's at the moment for the above reasons. But of equal note is that CEY's bounce as has been seen year to date is also sector leading vs our peers.
Overall, I anticipate that CEY will do well vs both our gold peers and other sectors going forward.
Glad you are having a great time in the West Country!
Yes , The Randgold take over has been floating around for ages, I can't remember how it started even, but it's good fun to fantasise about it for the time being, although as you point out the 50/50 agreement would be a major obstacle to any deal deal like that!
As always like everyone else on here I value your appraisal of our situation and that of where gold may be going for the time being, I remain convinced that the court case or the lack of Law 32 being ratified does affect our true value and upward progress considerably, I am convinced that a court case win or Law 32 passed our share price would double, at least!. Of course I bow to your market knowledge and experience regarding how GDX the value of the dollar and the price of gold are major factors in the future good fortunes of Centamin, but feel the full benefit of those factors moving in our favour will not be fully realised without the court case being won or Law 32 passed. As to our performance being worse than our peers I think you are referring to the views of certain annalists which I posted earlier, I certainly do not support their view as I have always extolled the fine performance of CEY in comparison to our peers, but I have noticed that our knock backs are always more severe than theirs on a percentage basis for no good reason other than the MM can get away with it as far as I can see.
Tibbs many thanks for your guidance but am at my lodge/cabin near Chudleigh, Newton Abbott, Bovey Tracey and know the area quite well but your advice has been noted for the odd days out from our base.Did the Fish and Chips yesterday at Brixham harbour and also bought fresh fish which has been put on ice and vacuum packed to take home with us. We all need to bear in mind that the SP only relevant when we are looking to sell and I for one who has been in since 2008 am for holding especially given the news in the recent financials as we still have a journey to enjoy. So much good news particularly the open pit at below grade yet still excellent 1st qtr production.Then we see the potential in West Africa which is one of my old areas of business. I have been thinking about something someone mentioned about the possibility of a takeover by Randgold which I find doubtful as CEY are somewhat protected by the 50/50 profit share as would be out of step with pretty much all other agreements with countries that they and all other miners that I have ever dealt with have on their portfolios. However when the 50% profit is diluted by additional production from West Africa then maybe a different story but all some way off.
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