Joseph comments -The Egyptian government has received so far 1.3 billion Egyptian Pound (Royalties, income tax and advanced profit). - $169m received so far from the Egyptian government? May be right, Centamin don’t strip out what income tax is of the workers, but in terms of advances and royalties we are looking at over $100m already alone (with an investment by the Egyptian state of exactly $0!).
-CEY is going to pay the Egyptian government another advanced profit share soon. – Not disclosed, but suggested in analyst notes, so very likely. Profit share is still some way off though – H2 2016 probably, once all costs have been recouped.
-All account disputes with EMRA are getting resolved. – Never really been a dispute – the Egyptian government sit on the operating board of Pharaoh Gold Mines which is 50/50 and has representation from the government and has done for many years now.
-11.7 tonnes were produced last year, but this will increase by the end of this year due to the completion of stage4. – Company guidance suggests this will increase by at least 8% in 2015 vs 2014, so above 11.9 tonnes expected (3.07 tonnes produced in Q1 already)
From what I have been told in the past by those close to Centamin they regard Law 32 if it is passed as an unexpected bonus in that it will just finish the court case sooner than expected, although if it isn't passed they remain confident of winning the court case, eventually! As always thank you for your explanation of the working of the trading floor and I am of the opinion that Motley Fool is aimed at the PI to sell publications and promote trading to that sector, not knocking them, but if they really knew so much and had so much influence wouldn't they be making their fortune trading or investing? I like the old method of chucking the flip flops out the window and seeing which way they land as an indicator of what to do, although sometimes I do the opposite or nothing at all! My favourite method at the moment is listening out for omens on Magic radio because since I read Siko's last post and 'Walk like an Egyptian" started to play this share has defied predictions and gone up!
Thanks, fellows. This insight into market forces and MM parameters is really enlightening to me - and calming. So much better than railing at shifty denizens of the trading floor, which is pretty much what I had come to assume prior to discussions of this issue opening up here in the last month or two.
Thank you for taking the so much trouble to explaining in depth share value and the relationship between the ETFs and Van Eck, it is I am sure greatly appreciated by so many of us on the good ship Centamin and has once again made me appreciate what a great well informed and helpful group of members we have on this board. Also thank you fellow long term holders for your thoughts on your holdings which makes us realise that we are not alone in the doubts or frustrations about our strategies that we all may suffer from time to time. If only the community spirit on here could be spread across the whole world so many situations and conflicts may be resolved! I even more sure that staying in this is the right decision and that our rewards will come in the not too far future!
(sorry my post has been cut when I clicked on submit .. I need to go so won't be able to type it all up again, but I'll just finish the last sentence)
In fact, it is interesting that with all the Van Eck holdings changing hands, the volume has remained pretty low. So my own deduction (and they are based on loose opinions rather than exceptional knowledge) is that, there aren't a big play driving this up .. just operational, trading and MM activity.
Daz, "Do you have a plan if Law 32 is not approved?" - I suspect you are less concerned what plans Robbie have made and are more keen about spreading some temporary fears here? ;-) No need to answer, I'm just making an observation as I see it ;-)
EMH, good post, thank-you. Just a couple of comments to add though.
1. "Van Eck have no opinion on Centamin whatsoever" There will be parameters in their algo which is stock specific and this parameter can change over time. They will own the value of some shares more than others in an ETF and this 'ratio' changes over time (I have not verified if the ratio has indeed changed recently but just noting that it can and therefore there is an element of 'opinion' on a stock with builds their ETF). Also, as is pretty much logical, the parameters will differ across their funds that has CEY. For example, a parameter reflecting the political situation in Egypt may have much much less weight in the GDX than the AFK or EGPT (etc).
2. "It is not "market makers manipulating the stock" as some suggest". I know that there are different ways the sales gets applied (applies to ETF holdings as well, as whichever way you look at it, it changes hands in the exchange). In some of them, the Market Makers gets an execution order and a fee. They will sell it at the market rates full stop. No need for 'manipulation'. On some other types of orders, Market Makers gets less or zero fee and instead is allowed to take a risk and this means they fully control how those orders gets sold. And therefore these orders need to be sold at a high price for them to maximise their profit. While it isn't 'official' manipulation ... It can very well be the reason why CEY has gone up in price (I'm not saying it is ... but it can be).
3. "Recent very positive press (Motley Fool etc) and broker (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) coverage driving private investors and others to buy the stock" . For what my opinion is worth, I disagree with this bit. I'm not saying you have to be wrong, but from experience, the articles of Motley fool would have driven someone else's agenda and would typically be targetting PIs - while that agenda would at first be the same as us holders, it is aimed to encourage us to hold beyond their selling point (whatever that is). With regards to the analysts ratings, EMH (not you ;-) but 'market efficiency' )would have had that covered by the time it was made public. Also I have found that they do not tend to drive prices in the ways that CEY has recently. In fact sometimes they seem to have 0 effect.
Unfortunately, while I seem a bit picky above, I have to add that the volume has not been exceptionally high with the recent rise. In fact, it is interesting that with all the Van Eck holdings changing hands, the volume has remained pretty low. So my own deduction (and they are based on loose opinions rather than exceptional knowledge) is that, there aren't a big play
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