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London South East - Oil & Gas Investor Evening: Malcy, Echo, Savannah, SDX
Paul Welch speaks at London South East's Oil & Gas Investor Evening


Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)



Share Price: 102.50Bid: 102.70Ask: 102.90Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Centamin
Spread: 0.20Spread as %: 0.19%Open: 100.25High: 104.60Low: 100.25Yesterday’s Close: 102.50


Share Discussion for Centamin PLC


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Picket
Posts: 4,723
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.50
RE: Gold buying
Today 13:33
 
Picket
Posts: 4,723
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.50
RE: AA responsible: a theory
Today 12:23
ElProfessor, yeah I'm always listening & learning, don't think you can ever have this game sussed, it's even harder when you're invested in s company that gives a date for publishing results then announces them days earlier springing on you crap figures, will be on my toes this time before 1st November ATB
ElProfessor
Posts: 859
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.50
RE: AA responsible: a theory
Fri 22:13
Picket,

There are a few posters on here that are always worth reading. Marmot is one of them.

Not sure what his day job is but I suspect it is something in this field and we reap the benefits for free.

Best wishes,
Prof
Picket
Posts: 4,723
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.50
RE: AA responsible: a theory
Fri 19:49
You've a great mind on you mate, I'd have just looked on today's volume which was only a quarter of normal daily average & thought not much buyers about today, that's why I'm an amateur!! ATB
Marmot74
Posts: 1,072
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.50
AA responsible: a theory
Fri 18:51
Since CEY's close on Wed 17/10 at 105.85p the pullback and anchoring near day's lows for two days in row is odd. I said before that it was partly out of backfilling and confidence building that the recovery steps have been tentative. But yesterday and today there was another factor in play. Let's call it A+A.

A : On Wednesday Acacia informed investors of new charges and staff arrests at their subsidiary in Tanzania.

A : for algos. Yesterday and today Centamin was trading in treacle never able to get going. Why ? I believe that the algos which direct 94% of passive trading noted the uncertainty for Acacia and did a read across marking down Centamin because it just happens to be mining on the same continent.

Despite that Centamin still closed up 1.18% on the week and the 5th week out of 6 to rise.I still believe that the macro economic and stock market volatility support Centamin moving into the 105p-110p range next week. Once it breaks out of the 110p resistance for the last 11 weeks then more momentum investors will join the bus.
Picket
Posts: 4,723
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.50
The words
Fri 17:28
Paint, wall, dry spring to mind with cey sp today, not to worry I'm sure the good times are just around the corner ATB http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1539964856.php
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.00
re re profit share
Fri 15:08
Hi Carly,

From speaking with my old broker friend who has very good contacts regarding Centamin & Egypt, he is of the opinion that lessons have certainly been learnt and although painful now it has brought about the purchase of new plant (LHDR) which will be far more reliable, more efficient,safer and able to operate for longer periods, even in adverse conditions.
He thought that this LHDR purchase can only be good for production, especially as it will be run by Capital Drilling who he described as one of the very best in this type of industry,
My broker friend said that Centamin have been punished far too severely by the markets and are still far too cheap as will be seen in the future when many will wish they filled their boots at this price!
I asked about production at present, but he said not to worry too much about the present, but to concentrate on what will be the situation in a few months time when once again Sukari will be spitting out cash like a demented cash machine!

I asked his opinion about gold price , the Fed & Trumps tweets as I know he has many clients invested in related products

Trump tweeted interest rates were rising too fast ?
Jay Powell has said they may have to rise even faster?

His answer- As much as this will influence the paper markets, the physical market is very strong and will underpin undeliverable stressed out oversold paper gold.
The true effects from EM meltdown is not factored into the Fed’s ‘uncertain’ trajectory..
Watch them backtrack.

I have known this broker and been a friend for over thirty years and during that time I have never had cause not to trust him.
carlywarly
Posts: 181
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.85
RE; Profit share
Fri 13:56
Thanks Tibbs, I am assuming 3rd Qrt results will be little better then I first thought,. I guess we will soon see .
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.85
Profit Share
Fri 13:18
What is wonderful is that very few people seem to understand what this 50/50 deal is – it is effectively a 50% tax on free cash flow. In fact the 50% will not kick in until 2016, as in 2015 this will be 45%.
To counter this there is no VAT, no corporation tax, no other taxes to pay all beyond the above and the royalty, which on a blended rate compares reasonably well with other 1st world mining jurisdictions (like the US, Australia, Northern Europe etc).
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.85
Article 03/2016
Fri 13:17
INVESTORS CHRONICLE

Cashed-up Centamin awaits Sukari judgment

Like most gold miners, shares in Centamin (CEY) are well up this year, but financial results for 2015 were a mixed bag. A drop in all-in sustaining costs from $912 to $885 per ounce were considerably below guidance, but exploration write-offs and a tax charge on foreign exchange gains hit the bottom line. An average realised gold price of just $1,159, down 8 per cent on 2014, didn't help either.

There were bright spots, though. The balance sheet now looks far more robust, with cash, bullion and held-for-sale assets more than trebling to $231m, while a fourth-quarter fall in cash operating costs to just $667 an ounce bodes well for an uptick in this year's free cash flow (and by extension the dividend).

The legal battle over the Sukari mine in Egypt could also soon be resolved. A judgment on Centamin's appeal to nullify the mine's concession agreement has now been set for 24 May, although a favourable ruling for the miner may be passed on an interim basis pending a legal review by the country's highest court.

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity are forecasting full-year cash profits of $254m, giving adjusted EPS of 13¢, against $156m and 6¢ for 2015.

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2016/03/21/shares/news-and-analysis/cashed-up-centamin-awaits-sukari-judgment-wp2EldajbMyJy3XUu7RuKN/article.html
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.85
Profit Share
Fri 13:12
Centamin have not only consistently paid a 3% royalty it is now delivering significant payments for the free cash flow share with the government. It is fulfilling what it is legally obliged to pay, and this is going down very well with the Egyptian government. The political war was won when Centamin decided to go ahead with the expansion of Sukari to 10mtpa with the blessing of the government, and the latter are now reaping the rewards for the longer game.
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.85
RE: From Siko re Profit share
Fri 13:11
sorry Q&A were with Man on the Train!
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.95
RE: From Siko re Profit share
Fri 13:04
Some Q&A re profit share
RE: How Fair Is Egypt's Profit Share?
Today 19:02
Is the CEY P/E before or after profit sharing?
Post sharing – it is worked out on EPS

if before then in reality the pe is higher for it does seem absurdly low?
It is low as the market has yet to catch up that capex will be coming right down in 2017/2018/2019

Am I correct assuming CEY pay the government 40% free cash flow rising to half?
Yes – 1st 2 years of full cash flow share is 40%, the next 2 years is 45%, and thereafter 50%

Would that then double the P/E, or is free cash flow and earnings quite different, because of the way capital expenditure is depreciated, though eventually the same, or as asked does profit share come out before the p/e is calculated?
EPS is after all the depreciation etc. The cash flow to the government comes out of the free cash generated – so all capex already done, costs paid (salaries etc), etc.

Hope this helps,!
mrtibbles
Posts: 8,373
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.90
From Siko re Profit share
Fri 13:03
https://www.arabfinance.com/2015/pages/news/newsdetails.aspx?Id=416470&lang=ar

http://www.alarab-news.com/ebusines/article-1421687.html

Some figures from Mr-Yousef El-Raghy in case some of you find it useful:

-$12.2m advance profit share paid to EMRA in October 2017.
-$136m total advance profit share have been paid to EMRA since October 2016

http://gate.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2017/2/26/2017-636237441861789391-178.pdf

Hi uncertain, I will give you the ultimate answer. You will find in the link above a pdf file of law 222 year 1994 (The concession agreement) .
In page 51:
After the deduction of royalty payments and the recovery of costs and expenditure as provided in paragraphs b,c,d and e, any remainder of sales revenue shall constitute net proceeds and shall be shared between EMRA and Centamin.

(You will find all the details in the pdf file. One page in Arabic, then one page in English).
carlywarly
Posts: 181
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.75
RE; profit
Fri 12:41
If $1.2m July, $4.8m August, $4.5m Sept,= $ 45% profit to (EMRA) - to me that's means 55%profit to share holders= approx. $13m for 3rd Qrt, Have I got my sums wright?
Rebess
Posts: 3,269
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:104.00
Production Q
Fri 10:25
Apologies for posing my question - I haven't got my thinking-cap on. - We already know what the production figures were for Sept.- The company has already stated a figure of 48,511 ounces. - So, the clue is in the monthly-profit payment as to the month's production. - With no weekly shipping news, it looks as though that is all we'll have to go on. - At least it's better than nothing.- It will require similar payment for the 3 months of Q4 to hit the revised target. - Variations in POG will have an affect of course.
Rebess
Posts: 3,269
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:103.35
Re $4.5m
Fri 09:11
Good morning Cowichan - Thanks for the link. - I must say it made for good reading which is a nice way to start the day. - Any guesses as to what that might mean in terms of production? - I'll make that an open question so that anybody can chip-in with their calculations. - cheers.
spot64
Posts: 378
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:75.00
RE: $4.5 million for September IS GOOD!
Fri 08:05
That's great news Cowichan, thank you.
I think we can assume that the resent production /grade problems are behind us now.
Picket
Posts: 4,723
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.95
RE: $4.5 million for September IS GOOD!
Thu 20:47
Yeah good news indeed, pog still clinging. To a gain at moment whilst US Market getting a kicking, pound dropping like a stone again, could be a very good day tomorrow if pog holds up or pops overnight, here's another good bit of news ATB https://www.rt.com/business/441615-russia-liquidates-us-debt/
Cowichan
Posts: 1,081
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.95
$4.5 million for September IS GOOD!
Thu 20:15
CAIRO – 9 October 2018: The Egyptian Mineral Resource Authority (EMRA) received $4.5 million on profit from the Sukari Gold Mine in September 2018, according to General Manager of Centamin Company Youssef el-Raghy.

http://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/58671/EMRA-proceeds-4-5M-on-profit-account-from-Sukari-mine

(if you remember it was $4.8 million for August as per Siko's post)
Picket
Posts: 4,723
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.95
RE: re Re Sounds good to me
Thu 19:26
Picket
Posts: 4,723
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.95
RE: Healthy Backfilling
Thu 17:43
Marmot74, great post, sums it up to a tee, not expecting fireworks here till 2 weeks from today, hopefully Italy , Saudi , brexit tensions keep supporting gold price, oh & we still have Iran to look forward to down the line when sanctions start hurting them & they start kicking off ATB
Marmot74
Posts: 1,072
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.95
Healthy Backfilling
Thu 17:07
After finding a bottom 11/9 at 84.74p and then having it retested after the revised down FY outlook with Q3 5/10, it is no surprise that the share price is making lots of backfilling moves to make the next up move as robust as possible.This is our third week of 100p-105p for the most part and we're in the 10th week closing under 110p.

The next challenge is the 105p-110p range before the assault on a close above 110p.

With today's backfilling CEY now needs a reversion to the mean to catch up with mining peers and todays stealth rally in gold currently $1229.4 +7.5 +0.60% and GDX ETF currently 20.25 +0.34 +1.71% trading at highest level since 10/8, ten weeks ago.

Arguably Centamin has some catching up to do.
djryan777
Posts: 3,467
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:102.95
...
Thu 16:54
Surprised it didn’t claw back some more today. Pound dropping and gold rising , set up for a strong recovery tomorrow , gold looking like it will rise to 1250 soon




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