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Big question is how 3D has been done on the 25km2 license and how many structures/ Prospects are there in the Triassic/ Jurassic, 25km2 is not a small area. The oil shows could be coming from the shallower Triassic around 1,000 meters, though CASP think the seal is intact, hmm? Shalva next door has commercial oil and is producing so bodes well for West Shalva. If they sell the Shallows soonish they'll have enough to start drilling WS year end? WS could replace our shallow oil Reserves/ production. The bulk of CE dosh won't be in the bank until Q4 so they must be confident in a sale of one/ both shallow structures to fund the buy.
The WCP have total control re votes so we have no choice but to trust (cough) their decision making.
Do any more family members own licenses for sale, hope not.
I can see the end game for CASP as selling the lot, then selling the buyers oil on and still drilling the structures with their drilling co and trading co, keeps the family in the game.
Anyway WS is another slice of the T/O pie.
Just when you think this is turning a corner you get sucker punched by the BOD.
Why not wait and use the money from sale of MJF? As it stands we are going to get a minimum 5% dilution on failure. If successful 10% dilution and then the firm $5m of income we have to pay out as well.
This member of the concert party is having his cake and eating it.
On failure he still gets rich on casp share appreciation on the back of sale of MJF or success on block 8 or deeps.
This is a pure derisking play with us casp shareholders as the patsies.
I’ll definately be voting no. I know it will go through no matter what but a John percentage no vote will be a warning sign for this bod. The independent members of the bod are not really independent if they think this is okay
Still think this will come good but not too happy with the dilution
Exactly a small puddle of oil from some poor sod trying to fill his car with oil on a lonely dirt track only to pour most of it over the engine and not in the tiny engine hole just like I do.
A few days later Casp surveyor comes along seeing the tiny oil spillage and reports this oil as seeping from the ground, as a jurassic oil field, he thinks it is easily recovered....it is.... no stuck pipes.... no need for them.... surely we can recover this oil they think ( little do they know the oil field is only 1/2 a liter in size) Carver gets so excited he cracks open another box of 24 krispy kreme donuts.
A day later they have aboard meeting and open discussions with the company who own this land and agree to buy the vast white elephant company for $15m with rights in recovering 1/2 liter oil from this field.....
I am tempted to go there and find a very small patch of land and pour 5 liters on the ground and ring up the donut muncher and sell my discovery for a fraction of this price.
To be Continued .......
It is not unknown for hydrocarbons to escape to the surface lol. I find your comment amusing. I could just imagine a little pool of oil by the roadside lol.
It wouldn't surprise me if this surface oil was some spillage or leakage from a truck/car!
You would expect to see the drill bit before the oil. Could be a great asset .
Missed this little nugget from the RNS, describing the West Shalva field they're acquiring:
"In June 2022 oil was detected spilling to the surface"
Just as a side note, this reduces the target price to trigger Carver's and Kuat's 2019 $800m market cap bonus shares award, from 28.15p to just under 26p. Whether that's a good or a bad thing, you decide ...
Basically people in the know think that shares are better value than cash. Looking good.
Just a thought, but if Shalva has 3C 5m barrels and CASP's West Shalva has zero barrels and bought for $15m (it's yet to be drilled and potential aside) wouldn't that value Shalva's oil at $3 per barrel for their 3C?
I guessed $5 pb for our shallows 1P/ 2P Reserves, which would give CASP around $200m, CASP are probably netting around $15 pboo from local sales (they're currently getting $33 Gross ATM - what will they get Nett when they sell their oil on the international market - after sanctions - this will be factored into the sales price no doubt?).
I've now given three reasons why I think $200m is possible - WH Ireland's 8p value, $5 pboo for our Reserves and the $100m Galaz price tag for 10m barrels of 1P/ 2P Reserves against CASP's 40m 1P/ 2P shallow Reserves with 3P Reserves to boot.
CASP have not had a firm offer and do not have to tell us if they have had one or how much, if KO declines the offer price it tells me he wants top dollar - what does KO consider 'significantly' above the $53m carry value?
BTW. The second $5m (99m shares) is to be paid out on first oil (there's confidence) - is this after the 90 day flow test? First oil could be after mid-next year where we could see the share price way over 4p - seller will make a killing - keep it in the family hey.
Like I said CASP is a one stop shop for any Major - why can't a Major just buy the lot now for.........42p 😉
This acquisition brings Oraziman family shareholding above 50%. Not that 48.41% isn't a controlling interest!
Unfortunately it didn’t say 42p:)
Https://www.whirelandplc.com/research-portal#/portal/whireland
What does it say?
The CE is a great asset for the company, as has been shown with the latest contacts. Understand your cynicism at this stage in the story, but that's a bad example for your argument, imo.
Our concert party can launch their own ventures and if they suceed keep them but if they run into problems , like maintaining the 'explorer' they can off load them onto the company. We are a great backstop for them.
Positive note from WH Ireland.
'would appear to be a replication of the playbook that worked successfully for the company at its prolific MJF structure'
My thoughts - whilst further (albeit small) dilution is not welcome, the move shows active and strategic thinking, and the market reaction so far is bizarre, especially given the ongoing BNG sale for potentially far more than the current market cap.
One of the main rationales for investing in Casp has always been riding the coat-tails of the Concert Party. Knowing the prize at the end, for them, is a far higher ultimate valuation. This is just another step in that process.
WHI like the deal
Just to add Galaz also had 3P 11m barrels, you can bet your bottom teeth CASP's shallows will have many more barrels than 11m 3P Reserves (3P 40m? 1-2-3C 1+ billion?).
Would love to be a fly on the wall listening in on those offers.....
Well, it’s certainly not boring as of late with our Casper. I’m not a fan of today’s announcement and can’t see why they’re doing it now by issuing 200m shares and 10% dilution ? Why not wait until CE cash hits or see the conclusion of any BNG shallows deal first and avoid dilution ? Not saying that this may not work out in our favour but I for one have had enough of sweetheart deals but no way to tell here as this is acreage that hasn’t been explored yet. Yes, Shalva has C1 of 5m boe and c 400bopd but West Shalva is another punt, moreover it’s being bought from Bolthazan hence the Waiver meeting. It could be a successful venture but as some have pointed out, it’s an IF not a when. We’ve already purchased 3AB through a dilutive share issue and written that loss down. The CE another deal done through equity dilution although we can argue that the barge is more valuable than the deal done BUT it better start earning its keep otherwise it will be seen as a white elephant.
My question is ‘why do it now ?’ If these are the development assets that BNG shallows cash could be used for then so be it but let’s get the cash in pre any deal, there’s no need to do it now ? We have enough assets and the priority is proving up the deeps. Use the CE cash to assist with funding alongside BNG shallows and avoid dilution. If any deal onBNG shallows is that good then fantastic but wait for that before jumping on new acreage. Must be another B8 or 3AB situation where licences need to be approved and risk of losing licences maybe ?
Let’s get on with the proving up of BNG, drill A5 and 803 and then take stock. The CE cash will hopefully land and then take a view on West Shalva. Currently I won’t be supporting any deal but I don’t believe our vote counts anyway .
Somm, re BNG shallows deal being significant, I sincerely hope you’re right and I’m wrong. If there was a lucrative deal, why not wait til it’s done ?
Altynbek Bolatzhan, is he a family member, ?, bringing him in to Casp, will he benefit from a sale of the previously announced asset sale he will have a decent holding in Casp shares once this all goes through?
friend of the family deal , imo
''Galaz
Roxi is pleased to announce that the estimates for total gross proved ("1P") recoverable oil reserves on the NW Konys field of 2.4 million barrels. The estimates for total proved plus probable ("2P") recoverable oil reserves on the NW Konys field is 7.5 million barrels. The estimates for total proved plus probable plus possible ("3P") recoverable oil reserves on the NW Konys field is 10.9 million barrels.''
CASP have 40m barrels of 1P-2P oil Reserves booked in the two shallow structures (Dolomite oil - Reserves upgrade due?) compared to Galaz having 10m barrels of 1P-2P oil Reserves.
Galaz was sold for $100 million - does that mean our shallows are worth par circ. $400m?
How many bidders are bidding?
Like I said I'd be disappointed with less than $200 million or am I getting carried away ;- )
Sale of Galaz........................ Of the $100 million disclosed approximately $50.4 million relates to the equity of Galaz & Co LLP, in which Roxi has a 34.22 percent interest and approximately $49.6 million relates to the assumption of shareholder loans owed by Galaz & Co LLP, of which approximately $11.3 million is owed to Roxi.
In aggregate the share of the $100 million disclosed attributable to Roxi is expected to be some $28 million.
Look it up for me, very busy Zzzz ...
Coffecups,
Can you remember how many bopd and Reserves Galaz had when it was sold for $100m?
Galaz.... thanks George and yes this could turn out to be a great deal. Even more news on the horizon to push the sp back to its rightful levels atb