Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Spill.
Floods Prompt Russian Refinery Shutdown. Russian oil company Forteinvest shut its 135,000 b/d Orsk refinery in southern Russia because of unprecedented flooding on the Ural River, halting ongoing maintenance works as its product stocks would be enough to cover 10 days of regional fuel consumption.
Iraq Mulls Restart of Idled Pipeline. The restart of Kurdish crude exports to the Turkish coast is unlikely to materialize anytime soon, but Baghdad is repairing the 350,000 b/d Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline destroyed by ISIS in 2014, potentially re-routing some of its exports as soon as next month.
Hedge Funds Embrace the Bullish Mood. Portfolio investors purchased the equivalent of 37 million barrels in key oil-related futures and options in the week ending April 2, with net length in Brent now standing at 300 million barrels whilst the outlook on WTI is more cautious, at 208 million barrels of net length.
Nigeria’s Fuel Woes Bubble to the Surface. Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC is reported to owe $3 billion to fuel traders in the African country as the reimposition of fuel subsidies makes retail sales a loss-making business for the NOC, with payments taking more than 130 days to come through.
Shell Mulls Delisting from London Exchange. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly looking at all options including switching its listing from London to New York, saying that if the European valuation gap doesn’t improve by mid-2025, the company could make a move.
Fierce Pipeline Dispute Moves to FERC. US midstream firm Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to look into the activities of Williams Cos Inc., saying it builds interstate pipelines without approval whilst the latter claims ET is blocking other operators from building new projects by not allowing them to cross existing pipes.
Guinea Is Running Out of Electricity. The African country of Guinea is facing an electricity market collapse as the state-owned utility firm announced it would deepen power cuts as energy sources get depleted, stemming from extremely low hydropower generation as well as breakdowns at thermal plants.
Copper Bulls Are Riding High Again. The three-month LME copper benchmark contract reached $9,450 per metric tonne for the first time since January 2023 as a steady inflow of hedge fund investments keeps the bullish momentum going, buoyed by improving manufacturing data from the EU.
Panama Canal Water Levels to Rise. The Panama Canal Authority indicated that water levels in the Gatun Lake should gradually increase from the end of May as the rainy season takes over in Latin America, with drought-heavy El Nino conditions giving way to La Nina, bringing more rainfall.
Leaking Gulf of Mexico Pipeline to Restart Soon. The Main Pass Oil Gathering (MPOG) pipeline has successfully undergone a line integrity test and will be restarted soon after transportation was halted for more than six months, shutting 61,000 b/d of offshore production, following a November spill.
Floods Prompt Russian Refinery Shutdown. Russian oil company Forteinvest shut its 135,000 b/d Orsk refinery in southern Russia because of unprecedented flooding on the Ural River, halting ongoing maintenance works as its product sto
German industrial production finally broke through the cycle of gloom after it posted a 2.1% increase in February, well above the consensus expectation of a 0.5% rise month-over-month.
- Although Germany’s manufacturing is still below its pre-pandemic levels, the surprise hike in activity fuelled this week’s copper rally and reinforced the expectation of the ECB cutting rates from June onwards.
- In contrast to actual figures, business sentiment in Germany remains sour as the S&P Global PMI index dropped as low as 41.6 in March, from 42.5 in February, suggesting the country’s manufacturers don’t necessarily share the optimism.
- Europe has been the laggard continent in terms of rising commodity demand as oil demand keeps on trending flat, electricity demand has now declined for two consecutive years, and steel production has fallen to its lowest level on record.
Market Movers
- UK-based oil major Shell (LON:SHEL) and Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) are reportedly vying for the LNG assets of Pavilion Energy, a trading firm set up by Singapore’s Temasek, in a deal that could be worth 2 billion.
- UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) is reportedly nearing an agreement with Anglo-French upstream firm Perenco to divest its Amherstia, Cashima, and Immortelle gas fields in Trinidad and Tobago.
- French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has postponed a final investment decision on its Papua LNG project to 2025, saying more alignment would be required with engineering contractors.
Tuesday, April 09, 2024
Brent crude futures have established a firm footing over the $90 per barrel mark and not even a brief opening for a potential ceasefire in Gaza managed to pull it lower. Mexico cutting oil exports will ensure bullish sentiment continues to build in the coming weeks, with further directionality set by the US and Chinese inflation numbers this week, potentially even paving the way for a climb closer to $95 per barrel.
LNG Prices Keep Calm Despite Strong Asian Buying. Spot LNG prices in Asia have been rangebound in recent weeks around $9 per mmBtu despite higher-than-usual buying from China and Japan as European LNG imports are set to drop to a 7-month low of 8 million tonnes on high gas inventories.
Mexico Keeps on Cutting Oil Exports. Having withdrawn 436,000 b/d of crude oil exports in April, Mexico’s state oil firm Pemex intends to cut its May exports by 330,000 b/d. The country has refrained from declaring force majeure on its supply contracts despite stretched crude production.
Guyana Struggles to Launch Its Gas Bonanza. Whilst Guyana’s oil production has been surging recently, its $1.9 billion gas-to-power project is running at least six months behind schedule, with operator ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) forced to halt 400,000 b/d of production for a month in Q3.
Iraq Mulls Restart of Idled Pipeline. The restart of Kurdish crude exports to the Turkish coast is unlikely to materialize anytime soon, but Baghdad is
Yes, ridiculously that's exactly what Chevron / Exxon / Total have all done.
How can the mkt cap double? Just ridiculous.
Hoping we can exceed £6 but this relies on no world issues.
Increase in windfall taxes won't exactly help.
My patience with BP has finally been exhausted.
Despite the upbeat news today, it has become increasingly apparent that Shell are much more attuned to the markets and investors, particularly given the CEO's comments regarding a possible move to the US.
Happy to take a c.1% drop in yield in anticipation of enhanced capital gains.
Good luck to all who remain.
Nd.
Https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/bp/broker-views/
Interesting to see Barclay's reiterate their 1000p SP guidance for bp, I always thought it was based on how close Lydia Rainforth was to Bernard Looney (they always sat next to each other at investor days), seems it has more substance than that now he is gone. Let's hope she is right.
April 9 (Reuters) - BP (BP.L), said on Tuesday it expects first-quarter upstream production of both oil and gas as well as low-carbon energy to be higher than the previous three months.
The London-listed oil major also expects strong results in oil and gas trading, along with a $100 million-$200 million boost from improved oil refining margins.
Lower realised prices, however, will mean a hit of $200 million to $400 million to its gas and low-carbon energy segment, BP said in its first trading outlook for 2024.
For oil, lower realised prices will mean an adverse impact of between $300 million and $600 million, it said, due in part to price lags on its production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the UAE.
BP is scheduled to report its results on May 7.
See RNS for details
Https://pgjonline.com/news/2024/april/bp-nears-deal-to-sell-trinidad-upstream-gas-assets-to-perenco
Morning Spights and all
I always said we are worth £8 in a take over.
Shell even thinking about a move to US is a game changer.
BP likes to be a trend setter, but I just see them being slow to act.
Onward and Upwards
Meoryou I love your thought.
What would the price be then
At least £8 :)))))))))))
Https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php
Good morning all and meoryou:)
Here is a little thought
Shell decide to list in US
BP stubbornly stay listed in UK.
18 month later Shell have indeed been re rated.
Just before BP decides to follow Shell to US,Shell use their newly re rated shares to buy out BP ,taking advantage of a 40% -50% increase in sp.
BP have stubbornly managed £6.( about 20%)
Could you see it playing out
Great link getafgrip !! Hoped this would happen, but didn't think it would !! The EPL is a morally illegal tax, but the wheels do turn eventually !! Wonder do Starmer and his cronies really understand this Reality or will they still increase the EPL anyway ?!! All we need is for SHEL, BP., HBR and others to exit UK to give the politicians a good kuck up the a..e !!
I do note the distinct lack of hubris in Wael's comments - not even been in the job 18months and he's already beating "the SP is not my fault" drum
ST:
I couldn't agree more. Wael Sawan's statements- I think it is more than just an early warning, but big companies can direct Governments, particularly with elections in the offing;
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-threatens-quit-london-york-111116631.html
So, reports that Shell is looking at NY over London for a listing, saying they are undervalued here. That would heap pressure on bp . . .
Thanks WeirdPal, I've just ordered that book. Looks good...
WP
Agreed Vitol will probably do things for profit that we are glad BP don’t do.
Will look into that getting that book, ( looking for holiday reading anyway).
Thanks
Meoryou, I imagine Vitol have dealt heavily in urals which has boosted their profits no-end. Trading houses run towards risk and have no qualms about circumventing sanctions/dealing with questionable regimes - have you read 'the world for sale' by Javier Blas?
Hopefully a sign for BP Trading also
The world’s top independent oil trader, Vitol, booked a net profit of $13 billion for 2023, wrapping up a second consecutive year of very high net income following record 2022 earnings, the Financial Times reported on Monday, quoting sources familiar with the privately-owned group’s results.
The disruptions in the energy markets and the high volatility in commodity prices in 2022 and 2023 benefited the largest independent trader, and all other major independent trading groups such as Trafigura and Gunvor, but Vitol’s earnings far outpaced those of its closest rivals.
Kate Thomson Chief financial officer / director
Shares acquired through participation in a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP
Shares 2086
Cost per share £5.0855
Total cost. £10,608.35
Interesting this has been picked up on the board now when it was said at FY results - lets hope MA sends a clear message to the market - pulling back on green investments (or punting them into late 2020s) and opens the taps. They'll be a lot of societal pressure but the SP will rocket on the expected earnings increase