Hi Lucas. I have been thinking tonight (with the help of some Scottish amber nectar).. Since we bought the fundamentals have got better ~ another 100 mm bbls of condensate. Borders have a possible oil leg and will next drill into the sweet spot of the basin. The only thing that **** us is the price of oil !! Things will get better and we will be quids in, I won't get emotional about the share price, I will play the long game like Howard & Co. Whether I am right or wrong only time will tell I have made the right decision. All the best min.
Thanks for the infor Merc and all others posting about agm. It would be nice to see a well before the 2017 expiry however BOR seem to like dragging things out and being very quiet on the matter. I think leaving these in the bottom ISA draw for a little while may be the only way with BOR - heavily invested for my personal situation and seeing it at 75% down is hard!
I managed to get through to Dr. Obee this morning on the phone. Your interpretation of the AGM is 100% correct.
The current licence is already operating under a 5 year extension ~ expiry Nov 2017. Borders can Extend for another 5 yrs until 2022 (this means they will be into their 10 yr extension). I asked if a well needs to be drilled before 2017, (The answer wasn't exactly clear-cut, whether this was deliberate I do not know), from the answer I have the opinion borders would not need to drill before 2017 (the extension date would be moved from 2017 to 2022), the FI Gov would be flexible as they have met other commitments such as completing an extensive 3D programme. However, I then asked, If a drill would then be done before the 2022 expiry. I was told that they are looking to drill & appraise long before then (he actually laughed as if to think my question was rather stupid). From the tone of the call I have the impression a well will be drilled before the 2017 expiry date ~ subject to funding, but that last part is strictly just my opinion.
It's been interesting catching up and reading your assessments of the AGM. I gave to say I'm not adding any more, or at least I'm not planning to !!! My average is 19p and with approx 120,000 shares this will either rocket past 19p or sink limp me a brick. I'm sticking with the rocket north attitude based on fundamentals but I'm not epridking any more cash when I have a few house projects to get on with. This is my pension pot and has akways been a long term investment. Happy to wait another 10 years so ATB guys. Also, Steptoe, good move with the ISA top up !!!
I am heavily exposed. I agree with you, if it does fly we will make a lot of money. The important question needing answered now is, does the company have to drill before Nov 2017 to meet licence commitments?
Once I have spare moment I will try to find out.. If I do find out I will post up the answer on this bb. Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts.
Hi mercator, your're eloqation of the boards opinion re humpback is exactly what I believe to be the case. Apparently only half as many people turned up to the AGM as last year. Howard Obee gave a long chat about the qualtiy of the find etc (probably what some of you guys have seen on the powerpoint thingy). The floor was then opened up and it looked as though no-one was going to say anything, so I asked for clarification on the licences. The licence has a possible 5 yr extension, subject to certain criteria being met or a 10 yr extension subject to more stringent criteria being met [obviously this is all my understanding of what was said]. The first extension, however, actually started 1 nov 2012 so this will expire on 1 nov 2017. at this point the license is extendable to 1 nov 2022. Howard Obee went to lengths to explain that the board weren't concerned about the license expiry in 2017 and that the program of work being undertaken re 3d etc was far more extensive than a lot of the other operators and that the powers that be were perfectly happy with the schedule going forward. As to whether a drill or a planned drill needed to be in place before 1 nov 2017, this was unclear to me. Although I assume the licence conditions are in black and white so presumably it would have been an easy question to answer. There seemed to be a bit of vagueness at this point or maybe I misheard. It wouldnt be difficult for the board to answer yes or no on this. They must see all these postings, you would have thought.
The cash burn is $3 million a year at the moment.
Caveat this is my understanding of the AGM I know it differs slightly from the first posting by Spineworks
GLA (I won't be adding - if its going to fly then we'll make a lot of money anyway - IMO there are plenty of shares out there I'm way overexposed and imagine one or two fellow LSE'ers probably are as well.
Hi Mr Bond. Thanks for posting your thoughts. At this moment no one can disagree with your sentiments about this investment. The share price has fell 90%+ since 2012. On paper one of the worst performers in AIM history. I can't imagine anyone including institutions holding any significant profit in this company. Unless one or two were savvy enough to offload in profit and short all the way down (Standard Life / Ignis possibly?).
Reading from your post, the Board's strategy must be to isolate themselves from the Humpback results in-case the well is a commercial failure (regardless of geological success). Which in fairness is correct approach, as we know geologically Borders acreage is in isolation from Humpback geology. but a good result at humpback will not do us any damage either.
Fwiw, I spoke with a reservoir engineering friend a short while ago, he told me the Humpback well will target a 'sweet spot' in the anomaly rather than test multiple higher risk 'stacked pancakes'. The well is still a wildcat and seeking the usual answers only the drill bit can answer; seal, trap, charge, perm/poros, etc.The rest of the conversation flew over my crossbar, sorry I can't be more help. In a nut shell the way I see humpback is a high risk wild cat well with all the usual caveats attached. I hope it does come good though!!
Important questions I am asking myself now is, If Borders will not drill before 2017, How many years further can the licences be extended for and will conditions be attached? What is a realistic date we can commence a drilling campaign if we do not participate in this campaign (i.e., 2017,2018,2019..)? Borders have $16m as of December 2014. Probably enough to last 4-5 years. Is it astute to continue to stockpile this stock in the hope we can reach our former highs? Or is it good money after bad? Surely we can't get any lower in share price?? What is the primary objective for the Directors, prove up and sell (similar to fogl) or prove up and produce (similar to rockhopper)?
The board were keen to underplay the significance of any Humpback discovery/lack of discovery. I formed the impression that they didn't believe anything significant would be forthcoming. I also did not get the impression that any serious discussions re partners were going on. My recollection is that they said they were talking to people but it didn't sound as though there was anything of substance going on imo of course. Regarding the licence expiry first nov 2017 they were keen to point out that they had a work programme which was approved and were intimating that the licence was extendable but again inwas unclear if a drill or proposed drill was required by 2017 or not. I guess i can't have been listening as attentively as you spineworks. I certainly didnt leave the building thinking what a great investment. All i really thought was why didnt i join the institute of directors when the entry requirements were less onerous than thay now are. Still holding the shares though GLA.
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