Just been reading back over the board,... directors cannot deal in -"close period"-, also "Outside those periods, directors and other PDMRs are still prohibited from dealing if there is undisclosed inside information. (See: Disclosure of price-senstive information, an OUT-LAW guide.) This might be news of a possible takeover, a significant share issue or a big contract win or loss."
For what it is worth here is my two cents. we know Border has a viable commercial find in Darwin and, if some expert opinion is to be believed, there may be 10 times the oil and gas in the Southern Basin as in the Northern so it is highly likely that there are more significant reserves on its acreage. That is the strong part of Border's position, the weak part is that they are low on cash and for whatever reason the market is not reflecting much value for Darwin in the current SP, this in many circumstances would make them a takeover target but many of the shares are held by institutions who would have bought in at a much larger price or participated in the rights issue at 88p in 2012 so why would they sell and take such a loss. Imho, and this is what I am hoping, the board is now waiting for the 3d data before finalising terms of a farm in, if they are going to give away huge chunks of the Darwin find and other prospects in exchange for a partner they need to know, with as much certainty as possible, exactly what it is they are giving. The worst case scenario for Border imo is not to participate in the 2015 drilling campaign which would be a disaster and the company may not have the resources be able to continue and wait for the next one, so I believe they are in a situation where they have to do a deal and potential partners know this which does weaken their negotiating position.
I quite agree Anth - even a private company will have certain articles to protect minority shareholders. I'm sure listed companies have many more. And you're right a company cannot be taken private until 90% have been bought.I'd relish the thought of someone taking a significant interest.
As we know, there's circa 263m barrels of gas condensate in Darwin and there's circa 484.1m shares in issue. That means that every 2 shares in issue equates to 1 barrel of gas condensate. Now whilst you obviously have to allow for farm in dilution, pro-rata CAPEX costs, taxes, time cost to both extraction and the eventual sale of condensate, I would still maintain that a barrel of gas condensate net of all the costs and taxes still equates to more than 15p (the current value of 2 shares). Not to mention the potential oil/condensate in place within the numerous other larger prospects. This really is a share for the long-term that could reward you handsomely but and it is a big but, you're got to be prepared to stick with it and look beyond all the short-term negativity. The key thing is that the company have sufficient resources to continue in existence until such time as the wider oil exploration outlook improves.
As far back as the Half Yearly results LAST year (2013) the board have always signaled that the most likely time for a drilling campaign would be 2015. There have stated that they are being careful to use the £D data to identify Oil and GAS distinctly from one another as the city expectations for the next drill will be (and always have been) Oil. The fact that there is Condesate Gas already discovered and that the last drill couldnt reach the target depth BUT showed sign of a potential system are encouraging. I firmly believe the 3D merged data holds the key to a farm in and that it will be announced before mid-December with drilling campaign details then signed and sealed. There is a massive opportunity here to enter at a low level and I for one have taken that opportunity to top up. All Oil shares have dropped recently on over supply but BOR are an Oil Discovery Company not a producer and so the potential upside on these shares is massive.
Murray there is quite a difference between owning a company and being a majority shareholder. We just went through this procedure with MSMN with the take over of Trident and they needed over 90% of the shares in order to close the deal. I am assuming the same procedure woukd apply to BOR. Also, you mention yiur price is prior to any discovery and based on our only asset being an acreage. Have you missed the oart were we have a discovery at Darwin ? Again, I don't see any chance of a takeover going ahead and I agree that any attempt to buy the necessary shares woukd see a huge rise in the current sp. Personally I would like to see an RNS this year with a current update on farm in discussions or an alternative that allows us to drill next year.
Either way, its November tomorrow so the year end is closing in and i am hoping for some news very soon - be it farm in or take over! I agree the lack of information here has been a contribution to the drop in SP. Just hope the BOD are working very hard behind the scenes to secure something! GLA
I'm not convinced that much of what is being said here is Gospel but either way if someone decides to build a significant holding with a view to take over then I imagine, the very act of doing so will take the shares to a level we'd all be very pleased to see. What is it they say - Greater London Authority (GLA)?
If you wanted to buy over BOR all you would need is a majority share, this would in essence give you rights to decide what happens with the company, so your talking in the region of 50% ownership. My comment of less than 20p is based on the company as it stand now prior to any discovery or drilling. If there is a discovery obviously this will no longer be valid as the company will own acreage with reserves, but as it stands all we have here is acreage so if there was to be a take over just now the price (in my opinion) would not be to much more than what we are at now I can't see a take over happening regardless anyway tbh
I disagree Murray, anyone who wanted to buy BOR woukd need to have something like 90% of the shares which woukd mean an agreement by most of the holders to sell there shares. Thus is the part were you then decide what your shares are worth !!! Now do you seriously think a discovery worth billions of pounds is equal to less than 20p a share ? Anyone is welcome to make me an offer for my shares but I'm not selling for less than 50p. My average is 29p but I value my shares at more than this and that's the key point here, what is it worth to you ? This is entirely academic anyway as we won't be getting sold as there are a number of ways to secure additional funds, if needed !
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