Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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It seems to tie in with the Vanchem purchase and Fortune seems pretty confident during his presentations about Mokopane. So I am with RichKen and Endion that with current changes to the energy climate, SA will be looking to grant licences and investment ASAP. This year is a good guess.
I disagree dxgraf.
If the information currently points to a trajectory that will us to a certain place it makes sense to make estimates on when we might reach there. If we never did that for fear of being wrong or changing circunstance then we'd never try to figure out anything! Of course things might change, and if they do, estimates can change accordingly. Until then personally, i will continue to see where I think the company is going based on where they are now and what they are doing.
Richken - I appreciate that you are trying to be optimistic here, but unless there is some solid justification for stating these dates then I think it is probably best not to make these sorts of estimates. Before you know it your estimate will become an expectation, and then give more ammunition to trolls and shorters if / when it doesn’t happen.
I noticed BMN produced 649mtv but sold only 508mtv in Q1. Any chance they are stockpiling a little of what they are not contractually obliged to sell for when the FeV price increases?
It may be that production does not correlate sales but I would assume it is easy to sell the FeV to the highest bidder?
Faramog, it could be said that the Mokopane licence is more imminent at its ever been.
For a stake in the ground, I would say September/October RNS on that one.
Let’s hope it comes out of the new Governments priority list!
Cheers RK
@Bassbuy .. Mokopane licence I hear is imminent :-)
so saudi is getting into vrfb to diversify away from oil, australia sees huge benefit in using its abundant V resources, the US in states like cali get vrfb, germany etc etc. It is clear that vrfb's are becoming more and more commonplace with the graph from the recent MN presentation showing that the number of batteries being deployed right now is significantly greater than those currently working. This is where you see how in their infancy industries can double or triple in growth per annum. What we know from MN with his teasing little in brackets talking to hundreds of potential clients and the zimbabwe premature $400m announcement we know that no one else has southern africa in his sights as much as BE. the SADC is there for the taking and I am more than happy betting the farm that when the first RNs drops stating that BE has secured a big MWH contract, many many many many more will follow. Eskom is but a starter, the opportunity so so large it is almost incomprehensible. However big or small your holding, do whatever you need to keep it - this is truly a defining share for our age.
Pd, no worries
Indeed my frustrations led me to seek returns elsewhere as I have short term need of capital that I had overinvested here. I am buoyed by my successes and am developing a complimentary investment/trading strategy which will suit my changing lifestyle
I had read TP’s analysis and am kicking myself for missing AC’s article
I guess as soon as there’s a whisper of V price recovery the shorts will be squeezed, which in itself begs the question that you can’t just nip out and buy 6m shares at the prevailing offer without risking much of the profits. A placing might cover it but this surely has been discounted.
Yachty apologies if my previous post rattled you. It wasn't intended to as I was interested in your foray elsewhere.
I directed you towards TPs interview because quite simply I don't have a crystal ball about future vanadium and share price.
I do know this though. I was very confident about the future of this company before the Vanchem acquisition, and I am even more so now. I have also felt that the recent drop in vanadium price (since March) was due to short term factors and have previously posted that opinion. I was delighted to read TPs analysis which seems to confirm my view and explains it so well. Thus I am confident that there will be a recovery in the vanadium price 'soon'!
The short term sp, whilst being a little irritating, isn't the reason I am here so not concerned.
Just my opinion.
Regards. Pdub.
And I thought I’d read, possibly forgotten some, everything written about BMN.
Somehow I’ve missed this valuable piece.
Largo, apart from the expirey of Glencore’s offtake agreement perhaps don’t have the expected news flow that BMN have. So the anticipated rally in vanadium prices or commencement of share buy back might be a catalyst for closing that short.
However, I would have considered the potential for good RNSs from our camp would make the BMN short all the more vulnerable, but as we’ve witnessed recently, a somewhat muted response to what I believe is transformational news recently, the shifters still appear confident.
Yes, I initially thought Q1 figures would be higher now that BMN have the external consultants in. However, improvments don't happen overnight. No doubt the consultants would have had to evaluate the current production situation, then suggest improvements which may require a transformative change in current strategy in order to optimise production output. Hence why we now see figures looking good in March,
BTW, a further shipment has just popped up on our spreadsheet with delivery date 17 May ($1.76mn - 37,591kg). Again any profit from this shipment moves us a step closer to paying Vanchem acquistion (assuming conditions to completion are granted) , which will only boost our production figures further and keep our dear friend Paludina busy with the shipment log..
Would now like to get this Mokapane licence and see a steady rise in Vanadium prices over the next few months.
GLA
Yachty - if you read this article and read between the lines you can see what might happen to change the situation.
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/shorting-on-bmn-and-largo-2018-19-423
Pdub/Alfa
I’ve put over 200k into this company over the last 11 months, so my question wasNOT about timing a buy
The little I took out in the low thirties was to trade elsewhere and I’m happy with that course.
I, as many who have climbed aboard over a similar timeframe, am surprised at the SP action over the course of this year. I remain confident that this will play out as we imagine but was seeking debate as to when our community considers things might go a little more in our favour.
24 / 25p seems a strongish support and I will be surprised if we see much selling below this. Those who bought higher and have been scared off will most likely have sold by now. Longer term holders and true believers will just wait it out as there is so much to come, and again... the company is making so much money even at current prices we just know it will come good despite short term sp moves. This is not some prospecting miner or oiler hoping for paydirt, the fall in price is not from a spike based on blind hype or hope, but from genuine expectation of future profits. Yes V price has fallen bur the business has used the spike for maximum opportunities and it may well have helped us re purchase price. This is a long hold for me, maybe even a reitrement fund.
We will see if Friday was a change in direction, sells below 25p did not propogate further sells and price went up, so either the short is patient or it has run out of steam... or shares for now.
Gla
I suspect we wont get Mokopane licence until Vachem deal closure, that would be a double whammy RNS....
Other than a rally in vanadium prices, possible trigger for a rally in the share price would include:
1) Publication of final 2018 results (must occur by 30 June). I know there's an argument that the detail of these is already known to a large extent based on previous RNS and so priced in, but I do think spelling out the revenue and profit levels in an RNS will raise awareness of BMN to a wider audience and it will also trigger an update of the published tables of of financial info (e.g. PE ratios) that many investors use to screen companies for possible investment.
2) Alongside the 2018 results, we'll finally get the dividend policy. If it disappoints, then the share price will likely suffer more (I wonder if this is what our shorters are now speculating on?). If it delights, then it should provide a strong upward stimulus to the share price.
3) Any announcement of a BE contract win would do wonders for the share price. It's clear from Mikhail's comments last week that there's plenty of discussions ongoing - and not just in SA - so a contract win here could drop at any time now.
4) Jeff Radebe's comments about opening up SA electricity generation to private providers adds more impetus to these contract talks and it's clear from BMN's own existing small-scale solar/VRFB project at Vametco that we could move quickly to partner other businesses in this area now the govt has given the green light.
5) Specific additional announcements relating to the electrolyte facility in East London.
6) Mokopane mining license announcement would be massive news. Could occur any time.
7) Announcement that Vanchem purchase has completed ahead of schedule. Even if it's just on schedule, clarity of the final agreed purchase financing will help.
8) Further detail on JSE secondary listing.
Probably other items as well, but lots of potential short-term triggers out there for a rapid upswing in the share. price.
Yachty did you take your profit from BLOE before the sharp drop from its peak?
Does that mean you are looking to buy back the BMN shares you sold?
Do you think Terry Perles is correct in expecting the market to wake up to the increase in vanadium (and niobium) consumption in China?
Do you agree with his conclusion that "We do believe that we are going to see the price very soon move back above this $15 per lb V2o5 support level..."
If yes then you may have some if the info you need to help you decide when to buy BMN.
Final Results and Dividend Policy due by end of June.
BE update due soon?
Regards. Pdub.
Yachty - well anyone hanging around for a large sign to pop up saying 'this is the minimum, you won't get a better deal than this' is likely to miss out.
If you know anything about BMN then you will appreciate that now is the time to buy. If you don't know anything about BMN then you still have a little time to do some research by ready these articles:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/energy-storage-europe-2019-414
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/energy-storage-europe-2019-415
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/energy-storage-europe-2019-416
Average over a thousand views of each of these so evidently some people have found them already.
Thanks Alfa
On another note, it would appear the SP remains vulnerable, despite the recent monumental acquisition of Vanchem, (still to be finalised) and yet the presumed shorts presumably remain open and the SP retreats.
Other than a rally in vanadium prices, what or indeed when might things reverse?
Yachty - because before BMN took over Vametco Evraz was feeding high grade Vanadium sl-a-g from their Highveld plant into the rotary kiln as well as the ore taken from the local mine.
I have explained here a number of times before, as well as here ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/vametco-mine-visit-407 ) that this is a major reason why Evraz sold the Vametco operation so cheaply - quite simply they believed that without the Vanadium sl-a-g from their other operations that Vametco could not be made to run at a profit based just upon the mine ore itself.
That might have been true if the mining had continued as it had done under their watch - with very little attention being given to precisely the regions of rock being crushed and sent to the kiln, however Bushveld and their geologists have completely changed how that side of things is done now and there is much better grade control over the material coming from the mine next door.
If March 19’s production equates to productivity 21 months ago, why has productivity been lower for almost two years?
Q1 production total at first glance is disappointing. However a careful read of the RNS reveals a different picture. This quote in particular:
"Vametco has seen an improvement in mine production scheduling, vanadium grade in kiln feed, together with an increase in the hourly feed rate to the kiln and recovery. In addition, overall plant recovery has seen significant improvements.
These improvements resulted in production for March 2019 of 270 mtV, which is the highest monthly production rate achieved by Vametco in the past 21 months."
This tells us that the improvements to production process have worked (1st paragraph) and that led to a much improved production total for March (2nd paragraph). So we now know that the most recent production figure available (March) shows production figures significantly up.
In terms of why Jan / Feb didn't show that increase well possibly the changes hadn't been completed. However it is also possible that power rationing was a factor. Note the very pointed comment below, also from the RNS. That is not a random comment ... it almost certainly contrasts March with the preceding months.
"Vametco's production was not affected by recent power rationing implemented by Eskom, the South African national utility, during the month of March."
It looks like the assertion that production was not interrupted (Jan / Feb) is incorrect.
As always it is unwise to just look at the headlines without examining the detail.
Just my opinion.
26-2-18 : Hope that website of yours is more accurate then the rubbish you write here Alpha.
20-2-18 : You must be Alpha as you are in a flap, it shows it your response and what you have written really does make little sense, maybe I should try a few glasses or a puff on what you are smoking so I get into the swing of a reply.
20-2-18 Yeah thought that might be the reply, drivel, sure you are not Alpha from BMN? He is the only one I know who acts knowledgable but is really clueless, like your good self.
You don’t know alpha, I understand. Bit like your understanding of another share you used post on claiming to be god of trading history, promptly leaving that board since the price tanked. Sound familiar?
No worries old chap, have a good evening,
Sorry Bolgas none of us here have forgotten a single word of the endless lies that you used to tell about BMN so you can get lost mate.