The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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$107.5m Ebitda is for 100%. Adjust for minority interest and corporation tax (depreciation is small), should get you near £50m for full year FY18.
GLA
The Post tax profit estimate for 2018 of $76.2m following the Q4 published EBITDA of $107.5 ( gives and EPS of $0.068), following which one broker gave an updated forecast for 2019 ( $75/kg and 3400mtV) of $109.2m ( EPS $0.097) and for 2020 ( $75/kg and 4370mtV ) the EPS would be $0.129. Would welcome a second opinion on these numbers as it was quite a few weeks back when i reviewed them in detail.
'@gkb47 - you need to check again. Based of £50m (unaudited) profit for FY18 and 1.1 billion shares this gives an EPS of 4.47p
You need to base it on full year figures which haven't yet been audited. The clue to your calculation is the word 'interim'
The market will truly wake up very soon. Y es we have lots of very exciting news ahead of us as I have already listed based on every item we know. The vanadium price has softened recently after its peak in November, but very soon the pressure will increase and the vanadium prices will lift again. Even when the global market appears to be slowing down, large countries will continue to invest heavily in major infrastructure projects. This in turn lifts the global construction industry which will need more rebar, and the this will bring pressure on the vanadium prices again. I don’t expect just yet a huge step up but we can expect I think a rise to around the $100 per kilo. The only thing which will reduce the pressure is if there are new suppliers found quickly. This still looks unlikely as the new players will need a lot of time to get to where we are currently.
In the next two years higher prices will add to our profits significantly, which will be illustrated when the 2018 financial results are released. With investment at Vametco soon realising finally a lift in production this will put us in a very strong position. Then if the heavily hinted brownfield plant does get announced with potential to process potentially more than double Vametco’s current output this will put us in a very strong position to supply the electrolyte plant as well as additional steel clients.
If you add these announcements to the 2018 financials you have the visible strength that Bushveld Minerals investors on here have been forecasting for many months and we could see finally the stock price lifted to a more reasonable value which to be frank is way above the current broker target as this is only based on Vametco and 3750 mtV.
If you then look forward 12 months and the electrolyte plant is likely to be complete this time next year and the market for VRFB technology will be even more on topic then as a move towards technology weighing could happen.
Unlike “normal” expanding businesses this one has a read made market which is even more on topic due to the power generation issues in South Africa. If we look at how quickly solar and wind projects can be installed with VRFB ESS in place the ingredients in this cake are going to ensure it becomes perfectly risen.
Bushveld Minerals as the potential to be one of the biggest success stories in South Africa in the 20’s.
We keep saying investors need to be patient here, but the time is coming soon. This week has the potential to be very interesting, but the next 6 months could unlock news which will be beyond our expectations.
I truly expect by 2021/2 to see this company reaching its goals and being the largest vanadium based business in the world with potential to expand further.
So expect our market cap to rise!
If we take the current sp and a slightly higher FY profit I make the PE approx 6 for the year just ended. From Nickderby and others who commented on PE a while back the JSE average PE is around 18, with a typical growth miner sitting between 15-25 PE. However you look at it Bushveld is seriously undervalued at present. The market will catch up one day but I'd rather invest at a PE of 6 than one 3x the price, which would be a reasonable reflection of value ie around £1 (with nothing material added for BE). Good luck all.
Hi Swanseayellow,
I suppose when there are orders-even though it seems certain that Eskom will support South African product in locally distributed battery supported power. Given the present SP seems held back by lousy historic figures not being replaced with current performance reports, I am beginning to think that SA shares are only rated on history rather than the future.
Never mind! The future is bright and unavoidable . It will soon be history and there will be transformative news shortly.
Knutsfordnotary ; 60M is just from Vametco ! When will the markets begin to factor in a valuation on BE ?
Hi Knutsfordnotory.
Not necessarily, different sectors attract different P/E ratios. Pharma and tech trade at huge multiples, unlike the established miners for example. A growth miner should not be stuck in the 8-12 range though! ATB
@Ninvestor
Having admitted being non tecky can I now admit being non financial!
Does that mean that as compared with RST we ought to have a share capital , based on 60m profit , 43/7.6 times larger -ie the share price ought to be 5.65 times 40p= £2.26
and so on in comparison to the others ?
If so WOW!!
If not what does it mean-PLease forgive me if I have it wrong
So with 1,119,727,953 shares in circulation (bushveld website) a 40p SP is approx 448M market cap.
FY profit of say 50M for example gives p/e of 8.96.
FY profit of 60M would be 7.46
Very rough and happy to be corrected... Obviously nothing built in for planned quadrupling of 2018 production, ATM holding, lemur or the small matter of BE