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Bushveld Minerals Share Chat (BMN)



Share Price: 39.75Bid: 39.00Ask: 40.50Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Bushveld
Spread: 1.50Spread as %: 3.85%Open: 38.50High: 42.25Low: 39.75Yesterday’s Close: 39.75


Share Discussion for Bushveld Minerals


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YTSS
Posts: 783
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
Storing Energy
Today 20:22
 
BobbyAxe
Posts: 20
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
Bushveld Minerals as valued by the
Today 20:19
Evening all. I'm a big Buffet/Ben Graham fan. Stockopedia carries an analysis of every share and runs it through the so called Graham Formula. This gives you the value of the share based on standard metrics. I find it useful for comparison purposes across different Companies.

Anyway heres what it says about Bushy; some of you may find it interesting.

Current Price
39.75p
Mkt Cap: € 495.3m
Implied Valuation*
96.32p
(142.3% undervalued)

Benjamin Graham's Rule of Thumb was designed as a simple formula to emulate the more complex DCF method.
NB: It is not designed for companies with a below-par debt position.

Assumptions
hints ↓

The company's current normal earnings per share are: £.
hints ↓

The estimated medium-term (5-7 year) EPS growth rate is: %.
hints ↓

The growth multiplier is: x.
hints ↓

The yield on 20 year AAA corporate bonds is: %.

Description
Benjamin Graham was known for his thorough financial analysis of companies and is know as the 'father of security analysis'. While he was a master of complex valuation techniques, he realised that multi-stage valuation models could often be simplified. His original valuation rule of thumb was V = EPS * (8.5 + 2g) where V is the intrinsic value, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the PE ratio of a no-growth stock and g being the growth rate for the next 7-10 years.
The original formulation was made at a time when there was very little inflation, and growth could be assumed to be real growth. The AAA corporate bond interest rate prevailing at the time the model was created (in 1962) was 4.4%. The formula was later revised to incorporate the impact of different interest rate environments as:

In this case, Y is the current yield on 20 year AAA corporate bonds.
One important caveat to the use of Graham's formula is that he noted that it should not be used for companies with a below-par debt position. He wrote - "my advice to analysts would be to limit your appraisals to enterprises of investment quality, excluding from that category such as do not meet specific criteria of financial strength".
bassguy
Posts: 824
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 20:00
Does the market tend to balance books at the end if the year, been thinking about the last couple of weeks action...
RichKen
Posts: 467
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
Bushveld for Christmas?
Today 19:48
The question any new investor would like to know is where you see this going?

The growth potential in time is looking very good indeed, assuming we avoid being bought out at any point in the future. Which I think is highly unlikely. The relationship between Bushveld Vametco and Bushveld Energy is critical to Fortune and Mikhail’s vertically integrated business plan and hedges any future risk based on variances in the price of vanadium.

None of us have such a clear crystal ball on this but based on previous models we can potentially see the following potential stock price as the company develops grows:

December 2019 - £1.60 to £2
December 2020 - £2.80 to £4
December 2021 - £3.20 to £5
December 2022 - £5 to £8.50

This is based on the growth in vanadium output to 10,000 tonnes per annum at Vametco + Brits, Mokopane with 20,000 tonnes per annum once the mining license is in place and 4000 tonnes of vanadium feeding into Bushveld Energy providing 1000 MWH electrolyte for vanadium redox flow batteries.

Partnerships with companies building VRFB's

The potential here is eye-watering. Some may think these figures are exaggerated and some may see them as conservative, but this company with the current extremely astute BOD are on course to deliver this business to become the jewel in South Africa’s eye.

It may also be a story that you may share with your friends and family in years to come which will have them all asking how did you find Bushveld Minerals? Wow.

Food for thought.... maybe instead of buying a present, you offer someone for Christmas a small lump sum to invest in an ISA and suggest they put it in Bushy shares. The Christmas present that just keeps giving!

Cheers
RK
goblesmythe
Posts: 245
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: A Xmas tale
Today 19:08
Sotonian, from Southampton I guess? I've been here since the iron ore days and probably know of 25+ fellow Bushies in the surrounding area, you are in a very exciting investment, that will over time create great wealth for you. Great entry points, because I believe everything is in place for this to move forward rapidly over the next twelve months and the rest will just automatically fall into place.
RichKen
Posts: 467
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: A Xmas tale
Today 18:31
Apart from this informative board where else will you find great info on Bushveld?

Bushveld Minerals website

Bushveld Energy website

The Bushveld Perspective

The London Stock Market website - type in BMN.L

If you look at all these places you will find everything you need to know!

Then you need a trading account, or even better an Investment ISA, for example, try Hargreaves and Lansdown
or a SIPP pension.

I hope all this helps!

Cheers,
RK
RichKen
Posts: 467
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: A Xmas tale
Today 18:26
Numpty5 - a great story my friend, clearly your avatar is far from true you are very smart!

It is always interesting how many people we all talk to who have no interest in saving or investing. However, when you take the time to help friends, family, work colleagues and explain exactly how it easy it is they soon start to show some interest. Most have not had it explained to them and how it works. Even starting small with £20 a month or £50 per month or whatever they can afford and then when they have enough saved, ideally in an Investment ISA, to start buying into funds or even shares if they are feeling interested. It generally leads to the question where are you invested, and why did you invest in the companies or funds you have? You then explain about the research opportunities they have open to them. Which today are huge!

At this point, they look a little despondent as they fear they are going to have to spend months reading and watching. Now at this point, you pull out your ace card!

Let's make it easy for you, you say. One of my current favorite investments is not a fund but it is very interesting indeed. If I tell you it has risen over 700% since I first invested (03/17). What would you think? Interesting?

So this is a great example of a well-researched share. Start with the website for the company. Find out the names of the CEO's and the senior management team, see if you can find some interviews on YouTube and find out if they sound credible. Find out about the market they are working in and what opportunities there are for growth?

This company not only has a great website, but there are also very informative and good interviews with the CEO's (plural). Then there is another website full of research set up a group of incredibly well-researched investors which is like a magazine for the shareholders and those learning about the company. This is basically unique in the marketplace. Now the next question have you heard about vanadium? What is that? This is followed by the 10-minute explanation all well researched LTH can reel off pat!

The next question they ask is how can you buy in and will it still make me money. Well, I am still invested and I don't intend to sell for many years, in my opinion, this will do very well is my reply. But there are no guarantees I say.
I then show them what to do and fully explain.

But I insist they read and make sure they feel confident in the decisions.

This is real empowerment for them.

I guess many of them now read this board and hopefully many are very much in profit. Those who bought in over the last 3 weeks may be on the level or a touch below there buy-in, but looking forward we all know as we are here this is highly likely to go and this will always be a story you can pass on as it will likely change there lives for good.

The good points about this investment above many others are it is good for the investors, the environment and the employees of Bushveld Mineral
Alfacomp
Posts: 8,094
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 18:21
Tune in tomorrow Yachty
Yachty
Posts: 237
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 17:41
Alpha,
Assuming there is a short position held by one or more of our MMs are you able to estimate the level at which they may be able to close said position with incurring a loss?
Logic would suggest we will be around this level until they close?
YTSS
Posts: 783
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: A Xmas tale
Today 17:20
I have talked to a number of colleagues at work also. With the knowledge from here, TBP and my own reading etc, compared to jo bloggs even I feel I have a little knowledge now. None of them have invested, mainly I guess as never bought shares before let alone AIM. One GP I know, who does buy shares, bought in when I did at 12p. Recently found he sold out at 18p, after rising to 24p quite quickly, and fell back etc.
I only bought £3k initially, unfortunately, but have bought numerous times at 15p, 23p, and 38p. So average now about 19p. Well pleased overall thanks to the board
Sotonian
Posts: 17
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: A Xmas tale
Today 16:39
Numpty, a great story and one I can relate to, I’ve only been here for about 5 weeks, I’ve invested (bought at low 40’s and high 30’s so I’m currently down but I know it will improve!) and i understand every point you made, I have never invested on AIM until this came along and had no idea what Valadium was or what VRFB’s stood for, everything I now know has been either been picked up from this site or I’ve been able to research it myself using pointers along the way.
It truly is a remarkable place to invest and the contributors are second to none. Thank you all!

Sotonian
numpty5
Posts: 264
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: A Xmas tale
Today 16:10
Trust me on this Alfa. I WILL buy you a drink or 50 one day.
Alfacomp
Posts: 8,094
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: A Xmas tale
Today 15:50
Great story numpty !
numpty5
Posts: 264
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
A Xmas tale
Today 15:40
I'm a sales manager and have been for decades in the motor industry. There are about 30 salespeople in the company I currently work for, all of them younger and some half my age (57) or less. They all know I have a share that I'm heavily invested in (for me ) because I have this site open all day every day and some of them I have been their manager in other companies and known over ten years so there isn't a lot they don't know about me. They know this share was 8p ish when it was because one of my proteges asked me if he should invest at that point. I don't encourage people to do this. I do encourage them to do some research and make their own minds up and point them at the resources available (Bushveld perspective etc.) We took on a new man recently who also plays the aim game and understands the wild west nature of it all. This sparked a general interest in investing and trading (being salespeople they are mainly after a quick buck.) Now because of the increase in BMN they started to think I am Warren Buffet. Quite a few asked me for investment advice and the mechanics of buying and selling shares. I pointed out that if I was guru I wouldn't still be working but hey ho, I am older and unquestionably wiser than all of them. Not trying to blow my own trumpet just stating a fact. So, I finally get to the point I'm trying to make here. I agree to tell some of them why I'm invested here and why I haven't topsliced (a term they have been familiar with for ten minutes) and why I added Friday morning. So, I did that. I told them about the Company. It's history. It's vision and prospects. It's other interests. I told them about Vanadium. It's historical uses and potential future applications. I told them about VRFB's. I explained the principle of how they work. I explained why they are needed and the benefits they can bring to the world in terms of the environment and individual communities. I explained the pros and cons of Vanadium over lithium and the long term advantages of a no degradation energy storage system. I told them about the other mines currently producing and the future prospects of wannabes. I touched on UET and their links to Rongke. I told them about Dalian province and Eskom. I took questions and told them about South African politics. (None of them had ever heard of Cyril Ramaphosa) I spoke for about 40 minutes and I knew everything worth knowing. Now, so what you may think. Well here is the point I am trying to make. Every one of the LTH on here could have done this. Some of you better than me as you understand the technical stuff way better than me and some of you maybe not as well because public speaking does bother some but is second nature to me. Everything I learned over 5+ years I learned through this BB and the resources the people here have made available or pointed me at. I sincerely believe most of us could pass as a professor of minerals or various related subjects on no notice. I thank you all. You know who you are.
Lindon
Posts: 735
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 15:31
Uksteveg yes, it seems it was an aspiration at the time and even now we may get some news on it... but it's also possiblble the recent Valadium price volatility could have moved it on to the back burner for a while.
It could even conceivably be put on that 'back burner' till the 2019 1Q results (due in April)
At least by then the price gyrations due to the very recent implications of the Chinese legislation being in close proximity to the holidays and year end... may have smoothed out and there will be more clarity on how the Valadium market is going to look going forward.
Uksteveg
Posts: 2,116
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 15:03
Thanks for the responses re the dividend news, or the capital allocation structure. No guarantees it will be this week/year by the sound of things, but that was clearly the original intention.
James0309
Posts: 51
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 14:23
@YTSS - During a Proactive Investors interview on 17th October 2018, when asked "What are you working on, what are the priorities for the rest of this year and into 2019?"
Fortune replied ".....we will come to the market with the policy around how we view distributions going forward. Particularly in our thoughts regarding dividends, we want to make sure that we're not ad-hoc about it. So we are putting in some work, in terms of defining a sustainable distributions policy, which we will announce to the market 'hopefully' by the end of this year."
'Hopefully' we will hear news this week before the Christmas break which will lift the SP significantly and give everyone that warm fuzzy feeling going into the holidays!
Endion
Posts: 2,145
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 14:11
Thanks for the reply. That makes sense!
Alfacomp
Posts: 8,094
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 14:03
Endion - indeed unless you follow from the start of the stock listing you always have to consider that there may be a zero offset in the accumulated nett trade data - it's the same with integrations in calculus there is always a potentially fixed constant offset to add.

The way to establish if you are on the money is to see if there are periods when the trading seem neutral and the exposure constant - if you see this regularly at some point you may think that the accumulated MMs trade level is one that might actually correspond to the true zero and choose to rebase to zero at that point.

However this is not the only signal that you can use to tell yourself that you are at the right level - the behaviour of the MMs can also be cross-referenced against the accumulated trade position - if you see that the MMs appear to want to drive the price down whilst they have a short position that makes sense - if instead you saw that they were happy to let it rise whilst holding a short position you'd instead have concerns about your interpretation. Ditto if you see a long position but the MMs happy to walk the price down - that also would lose them money.

The behaviour during the strike, and the subsequent announcement of the Sojitz buyout is rather consistent with the accumulated nett trade position that I estimated at that time. Since then we have had continuous coverage so any starting offset will not have changed.
Lindon
Posts: 735
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 13:27
Uksteeveg... (The following is an extract from an article which was published by Alliance News professional services.)

29 Nov 2018, 09:47:33 GMT

LONDON (Alliance News) – Bushveld Minerals Ltd will soon be outlining plans for future dividends, alongside its “priority” of a listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

“We will be outlining a capital allocation structure which will explain and outline our dividend policy,” said Bushveld’s Head of Investor Relations Chika Edeh, speaking to Alliance News at the Mines & Money conference in London this week.

“We are committed on explaining to shareholders when they can expect a dividend, however, our dividend structure will take into account that Bushveld is still a growth story.”

She did not give a timeline for when dividends might be paid, but an announcement is expected to be made by Bushveld in the next few months.

The exact amount will, Edeh said, be dependent on the vanadium price as well as projected earnings and cash flow.

I'm not sure why they thought it was such a good idea to announce that they will be making a announcement in the near future outlining some future dividend policy with everything else going on at this time. Maybe it would have been better to have left making any announcement on this subject until they are in a better position to state exactly what that policy is going to be. They've put themselves (or at least I.R's inbox!) under pressure to come up with the goods sooner rather than later... as we have seen by various recent comments on the subject.

I for one will be quite happy just to see an RNS before Xmas stating that the battery commissioning problems have been resolved and completed and all gone well. It not long to wait till the the Q4 results are published near the end of January when they maybe in a better position to put more substance to their dividend intentions. Sometimes it's better to under announce and over achieve and wait till they are perhaps in a better position to walk the all the talk. GLA.
Endion
Posts: 2,145
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
Capital Allocation Framework
Today 13:06
"Bushveld is committed to delivering attractive returns to its shareholders. During the second half of 2018, the Company will define a capital allocation framework, which will outline the Company’s approach towards shareholder returns, including a dividend policy designed to encourage capital efficiency, to support the Company’s growth initiatives while simultaneously rewarding investors."

From the company website at the following link:

https://www. bushveldminerals .com/investment-strategy/
YTSS
Posts: 783
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 13:04
There was the intention in June 2018 RNS, outlining allong the lines of return to shareholders etc by the end of the year. But more recently that interview with Chika in November, where she said dividend etc in the next few months. So maybe not by year end.
It is interestin with Chika, she sometimes reaponds very quickly to email, but often not for some time. Recent emails from board members appear to be no getting responses. Not sure what the reason could be?
Bmnfan
Posts: 423
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Sp comparison
Today 13:02
Nice on Pdub. Great year for all LTHs.
Uksteveg
Posts: 2,116
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 12:54
I recall something along those lines being posted here but I have not seen a clip of FM stating that. I thought I did see something relating to January 2019 but cannot locate that. I have a vague recollection that Chika may have responded to an email from someone on this bb supplying the December info, although information like this should not be cascaded in this manner.
Endion
Posts: 2,145
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:39.75
RE: Trading analysis
Today 12:40
I have seen in at least one recorded interview that they plan/hope to elease a dividend policy before year end. There have been no absolute statements that it will be released, however they have certainly given the impression that was what they are aiming for.




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