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A chap I know thinks that the big North American miner which he follows, Teck Resources, will drop to 1 to 2 bucks by next Jan/Feb. It is currently just over 4 bucks. No idea if he will be right or not but if he is then presumably the entire commodity index will have fallen further and the likes of TCK, FCX, S32, Glencore, Rio and BHP will also have fallen considerably.
so if jv partner defaults, blt picks up whole tab?? ...cant see trend reversing anytime soon
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/28/brazil-to-sue-mining-companies-bhp-and-vale-for-5bn-over-dam-disaster The Brazilians are looking at BP and thinking they can get a juicy payout every year for X years ....no doubt a % of which will fall into the pockets of those that dont deserve any of it
the key is rel high pe and awful prospects for commodities in medium term ...gla
Hi, most concensus of opinion is that they simply have to cut the divi. Had the Brazilian disaster not happened it may have survived at least the same which is their policy, however a 10% yield for a ftse company very very rarely stays. The good news as has been said, a 50% cut (quite drastic for a company whose policy is for progressive increases) will still get you a better than average ftse yield. Also a decision to cut the div will signal confidence in the company, that they are not putting the unsustainable divi at the expense of the finances of the company which in turn may have the effect of increasing the sp. Win win in other words. You maybe sacrifice 5% for a couple of yrs while commodities recover, which they should, and maybe get a 10-20 % rise on the sp and thus your capital in the meantime. Well, I've just convinced myself to buy more Monday, you got to look at it as you don't need the capital for at least five yrs though. Gl.
I don't think you have missed the £8... I was in these in the past at £18, lucky for me I got our with profit and left them for a bit. I think I started back in below £14 in small amounts all the way down till now. My average is a little over £12. I think it will recover to that within 1 year and in the mean time I will get dividends. The Divi was $1.24 ( 80p ).... So even if it gets cut by 50% is it still a 5% yield on a £8 share price. BUT it might not get cut, or a least not by that much in which case someone is getting a bargain at £8. we will get to know on or before the 23rd Feb
Does anybody know Sanmarco's limited liability amount? . BLT will do a deal in the end or they will pull out and leave it all to Vale? The locals want the mine to re-open to ensure their livelihoods. This country, Brazil, is SO corrupt. BLT =£6 next week, I fear......
Ft100 all the way...you should diversify your portfolio ... I might have missed the chance to buy at £8 ... but the longer I wait for this to go down ...it seems to go down more... I'm going watch out for news of it credit rating as it might get dirt cheap then!!
My average price is around £12.20.. I have just bought a few more at 801p,,, so it is going to go down for sure now... I think my keyboard has a direct link to the shorters. I am not joking when I say, all the shares i have sold this year have gone up since and all the ones I kept of bought more of have gone down. My portfolio is embarrassing. Rio / Glencore / BHP / HSBC plus more. Plus AIM which I will never touch again. 1 tip off a friend which I bought in June got delisted this week. I have learnt a lesson with AIM over the last few years. However thinking I was playing safer with good FTSE dividend stocks like HSBC / BHP / GSK / HSBC and they have all shafted me as well.
I'm a buyer today 803.2P. Gold for the price of silver ;)
Everyone getting stressed about possible cut to dividend, even a 50% cut will still give buyers at this price 5%+. Seems the market is pricing up shares on the basis of likely P/E over 1 -2 years without any thought as to the long term situation. Not ramping......just sayin.....
Heard some chap from India on the radio a couple of days ago, said that what ever the environmentalists in the west said, India would need a lot more energy over the next 20 years and renewables could not plug the gap, so coal fired powered stations were going to happen, no question. My take on all this is that developing economies will continue to grow, even China, (though not at the previous break neck speed - but did anyone really think they could keep up 10% growth forever ?) and they will need iron and coal and, yes, even oil. The current pricing of resource shares assumes a brave new world built out of diddly squat.
Really this dam disaster couldn't have happened at a better time, combining with a depressed commodities market to create an excellent sp entry level for a long term investment. The federal response to the disaster may be overplayed judging by history.
brokers are best treated with a pinch of salt. I have RMG shares and if you take a look at their broker ratings in the last few days they range from 4 quid to six quid, and these guys are on £40+k a yr........beggers belief.
thats the plan, personally i might buy more to reduce my avg share price ... ive currently about 2k shares of blt ...ifyou dont need the money ...leave it as alone .... im wary of broker reports ....they 'sometimes ' have a vested interest 'in what they say....imho:-)
long term (5yrs+) not gonna go far wrong with these i reckon at this price or anything less than a tenner. collect a divi (ok it's more than likely gonna be cut ,but not axed) along the way to the cycle recovery, better than money in the bank at 1.5% int. Thats my plan anyway hopefully we'll be ok. GL all.
Well I hope I won't need to sell my holdings here... might need to sit on these for years now.....
Jp Morgan, Evidently. Bit of a turn around from last week!
The Brazilian government are in a shambles. For all that they bleat on about the environment they spend very little "policing " it This is as much about shifting any blame off anyone in Brazil as it is putting it onto Vale or BLT The lawyers will also of course be circling like sharks looking for blood ... " The tailings that entered the Rio Doce were comprised of clay and silt material from the washing and processing of earth containing iron ore, which is naturally abundant in the region," BHP said in a statement.
If there is toxic waste that means crippling compensation to BLT. All someone has to do is tip a barrel of arsenic into the river and BLT is buggered. I am long heavily this stock but I don't believe that BLT would lie. Counter productive.Those people(Brazilian Officials) would lie through their teeth if they thought there was big money in it. An acceptable independent assessment is need immediately. If BLT are lying, then I am an idiot for backing such a company. The shorting hedge funds frenzy feed off this sort of situation. I will sit it out for a year, by which time we all should have clarity..
Anybody thinks it drops to 70?
Hope not, but the Un report out overnight has sent us down on tsx by 3.7%!
Some images here: http://www.mining.com/bhp-hits-fresh-7-year-low-as-mud-from-brazil-disaster-reaches-atlantic-ocean/
So far US$316m (£209m) has been agreed in cleanup costs and fines. Not a huge amount compared to BP and should be covered by contingency funds. Also, dispersal of the effluent is expected to be relatively quick. Its effects may be short lived and aquatic life should return to normal within a few years. In South America the mining industry in general has a chequered history with many reports of water contamination receiving little punishment. Apparently the federal environment agency have a poor track record in pursuing fines with only an 8.7% hit rate in the last 3 years. The yield is only tasty at the current sp. If the sp recovers with commodities, the yield will return to normal levels but I will still have a juicy return.
In profit now, plus it would be great if div is not cut wold like to hold here lon term. A recovery in commodities will spare the div.