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My opinion is that this little fkir has been undervalued for 10 years at this stage and I don't know why. After that set of results in a normal world the share should have jumped 20 - 33%, instead it slid 10% based on not making expectation of 2 bn PBT and high bad debt charge of 400 mn. Currently on a valuation of 4.6 times PBT or 5.6 earnings or 80% of Net Asset Value. A capital ratio of 14.3% and all factors in its favour economy, monopoly, demographics etc.
When this share buy back is complete that will contribute about 7/8 c per share to next years distribution and assuming a distribution of 1.2 bn in cash dividend we are looking at €1.20 dividend per share. Historically a good dividend yield is 5% but for arguements sake say 8% as ECB interest rates are now 4.5% that should mean in a normal world the share price would be €15 minimum at an 8% yield or upto €24 at a 5% yield. Reducing next years dividend to €1 per share moves these share prices to €12.50 at the low end to €20 at the high end.
The cash element of this years dividend is 60 c puts the range at €7.50 to €12. I believe the share buyback won't affect the shareprice this year. Expected ex dividend date of early May as per last year should see the trading range move to the higher end as we approach early May followed by doldrums until next Jan and then bring out the Boli
Please give me good reasons why the above opinion is wrong and what will derail it. Of course we have all watched the market manipulation of fkir and shouldn't expect anything different. From my perspective the only potential black cloud is if there is a further share buyback in 2025.
Leave is alone John.hume. I feel bullied
In yesterday’s Business Post interview Myles O Grady said as much, ECB rates gone up by 4.5%, but BOI rates only up by 1.75%. Drops in the ECB rates are not going to be mirrored by BOI as they did not follow them up.
GLA
Agree - this return to very low rates is going to be slower than the market has anticipated
Or at todays price -8.30 less 60 cent dividend this year ( and almost certain minimum same next year - as that is guidance for 2024 ) so that’s 7.10 less 6-10% share buyback ! That we will have a company making 2 billion at a PE of about 3-1. !! Insane but true
Following my gut as well and ignoring brokers and their bs.
I was only dreaming of a life without share buybacks and a dividend of €1.10…….
GLA
I would hate to be any amateur who sold yesterday,
Good thing nobody pays any attention to you
Theres a chance this might go up first thing in the morning 8.33euros i would get out if i was you johnhume, it will sink after!!!!!!!!!!!!
Going back to following gut from now on - eventually it will fall just under 6euros thats what i feel. All thesess silly brokers saying 14euros 13 euros 12 euros, i was sucked in when it was 10euros my plan was to dump all over 10euros thank god i did sell alot 9.50euros. my buyback and dividend is holding it up skin on the teeth, but sorry i see it going down johnhume - thurday/friday bloody days
It was confirmed yesterday that 634mill being allocated as div payout in june. As this is a specific amount could it mean that this amount might be payable to say 30 million less shareholders (1.028bn or 61.6c per share. I do not see the SP falling by the full div amount ex div. You probably find the sp appreciates in the run up to the ex div date to reflect the div payment in following few weeks.
On looking at yesterday's rns it mentions approval given to buy back 10% of capital at last year's agm. interesting to see what today's buy back in tomorrow's rns.
Ryanair deliver results in coming weeks and profit expected in 1.85/1.95 Bn - identical to BIRG but valued at close to 21 Billion !
It really doesn't.... Markets are slow to react to what seems obvious to me... this reporting season we are witnessing the return of Euro banks stocks becoming popular solid investment choices (Birg is really yielding 13% when you consider bb and divi )... extra low interest rate periods are gone for the foreseeable and normal interest rates have returned... "IF" the ECB lowers rates this year it will be to around 3.5 by the end of the year Max IMO... This means another bumper year for the Euro Banks next year and the year after that most likely.
We could work it another way-After dividends the SP should go down 60 cent to 7.5 euro ,with a billion shares, a 7.5 bn company making 2bn profit.Doesn't add up.
18 mill savings.
Then Shen,
do you think that BIRG will apply the dividend savings in additional buy back. Last year their buy back averaged about 450,000 daily and with 60 odd trading days to the agm you could be looking at 30mill div savings.
The 60 cent dividend is still built into the current SP so birg will get that as well with the buy back.
The notion that the SP has peaked goes along with the thinking that the Bank is going to sit on their hands and not do anything.
Given Market cap of €8.6B a distribution of €1.15B is some 13.33%……in a year !
GLA
Surprised to see buy back commenced today. was 9 may last year and finished towards end of june.At least buying back when they are cheap.
Institutional manipulation....old valuation rules dont apply anymore.
Please note I will be unavailable from February 29th through March 1st
All, just because I sold please do not let it influence you. Seek independent financial advice and avoid following my judgement blindly. regards
Massive overreaction... screaming buy for someone looking to make a quick 10% and then sell. I'm not invested... have moved every cent into AI stocks otherwise I'd be in and out on this and happy with the quick return.
Still a lot of squabbling on the board... frustration that no-one is able to predict it perfectly. Have people forgotten that shares don't follow normal patterns?? Algorithms rule now... stop fighting and try and find good entry points and trade your shares... in and out on this one or else just hold and stop watching it constantly and tune back in a few months or years later... arguing who is right is pointless.... no one is right... that is the most obvious. Algorithms are designed to cause confusion in the market and encourage selling and then the buys fly in and up she goes... small fish will never move this one up or down... when you take a step back its so much clearer.
John Hume-iliated
What the hell is the point waiting for an 8% dividend only to see the SP drop by 13% in one day? Anyway on ex div day that 8% will be wiped off the SP also. Stop deflecting to RYA IAG etc. - this is the BIRG board and you called this very very wrong. Have some balls and admit you said "major boost to the sp".
Donkey,
If these hit 7.50 tomorrow even the donkeys in the stable would be mad not to buy-with a yield of 8%.
You should also bear in mind that PBT figures are easily manipulated for different purposes. If BIRG adopted the same reserve figure for 2023 as for 2022 their PBT figure would be 2.16 Billion and a very different tune would be sung today. Are they attempting to lighten "political" pressure ?
See the Doomster is in full voice today but the IQ aint improving. Now considers Ryanair a sideways company , very conveniently forgetting that they are the largest Airline in the world by market capitalisation with a market value in excess of the combined values of IAG-E JET-Air France-Lufthansa - all from a company started on greenfield site some 35 years ago. Once an idiot ,always an idiot.