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Avanti Comm. Share Chat (AVN)



Share Price: 6.95Bid: 6.95Ask: 7.40Change: -1.185 (-14.57%)Faller - Avanti Comm.
Spread: 0.45Spread as %: 6.47%Open: 7.50High: 7.50Low: 6.95Yesterday’s Close: 8.135


Share Discussion for Avanti Comm.


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MattTheBrave
Posts: 2,178
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.95
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 17:12
Borrow a little, the bank owns you. Borrow a lot, and you own the bank. Same here - The debt holders are somewhat beholden to the Company if they want to get back 100p in the pound of principal. They need to keep it as a going concern and hope it will grow its way out of trouble post Hylas 4. If at any point they do not believe they will ever get this back, or simply feel prepared to accept a lower percentage of the principal , then they will allow AVN to breach the covenants, foreclose the debt, and sell the assets to the highest bidder. Always risky of course as they'll look a bit desperate, although there should be some interested buyers at the right price. Going to bean interesting next 12 months.
 
HeadInTheSand
Posts: 1,159
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.25
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 16:41
Power, I largely agree... except re the lenders. Being as far in as they are, do they honestly have a commerclally palatable alternative? Neither a D4E swap nor a "shutting up shop" asset firesale would seem at all attractive...

My best case possible guesstimate for Hylas 4 revenues would be 25% utilization at $1,000 per MHz per month by end 2019. That's still not to be sneezed at.
POWER
Posts: 989
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.25
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 16:36
Sorry but i happen to agree with MTB on this point. The satellites were insured against damage or accident.
It is no doubt in my mind, the business is picking up but will it be fast enough to pull us through?
I think we have used up all our privileges with our lenders. Next time, we wouldn't be so lucky.
HeadInTheSand
Posts: 1,159
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.25
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 16:31
The starting gun hasn't exactly gone off.

What's happened - and yes it's still a good thing - is that consent's been sought (and by the looks of things, gained) for the terms of existing/future debt to be less onerous.

First and foremost, this IMO will allow AVN's auditors to consider AVN as a viable going concern and thus sign off on the latest FY and half year figures - which again IMO is largely why such consent was sought. (And no I am not surprised at all that the major bondholders like MAST consented... any alternative decision would not have been good for them at all).

If the assumptions above are correct, what this gives AVN is more time. More time to see how much of HYLAS 4's capacity it can sell.

Now I don't think ProfW's previously posted extrapolations from historic data are that close to reality... we all know that the price of data is dropping fast, so $1,600 per MHz per month will by H2 2018 be almost certainly well over the top.

Similarly ProfW's extrapolated "instant" utilization rate of 35% is also IMO very top-endish... as AVN itself effectively states:-

"Once launched, Avanti anticipates Hylas-4 utilization will grow to 25 to 35 percent by the end of fiscal year 2019."

Having said that, I see the granted consent as allowing AVN to get its statutory figures out and yes, giving them an extension in their endless quest to get revenues more closely matching - and please God, exceeding - funds required to service existing debt. They undoubtedly will start generating incremental revenues from Hylas 4 to some level or another, so not a bad thing at all.
MattTheBrave
Posts: 2,178
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:6.95
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 15:27
PW - stop posting rubbish. The Satellite's are insured against damage and malfunction. The insurance isn't to cover company bankruptcy. The argument that the satellites are insured so the Company must be fine is amongst the stupidest that I've seen on this Board, and that's saying something!
ProfW
Posts: 102
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.50
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 14:20
Power:

AVN has insurances n Hylas 1, 2 and Artemis together amounting to over $ 485 Million..

Do you really think any sane Insurance company would insure these birds if they thought that this company would go under?

Page # 13

http://www.avantiplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Annual_Report__Accounts_2016.pdf
POWER
Posts: 989
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.50
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 14:13
SS- i know AVN is on the life support machine but it is still breathing and there are signs (Hylas 4) that it will come back to life.
Why don't we all join hands and think positive for AVN? the other option is bankruptcy and where is fun in that?
Deepsurvey1
Posts: 1,117
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.50
Financial Times target for AVN
Today 13:41
Even the Financial Times has a new Target Share Price for Avanti at 25pence. 207.3% upside. A bit conservative but it is the Financial Times: Markets.ft.com.
Deepsurvey1
Posts: 1,117
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.50
Re: This should be a fantastic ride
Today 13:21
Oh dear SouthStreet you have bad case of spoilt child syndrome. Come on Tell us whats happened and we can all sympathise. Let me guess - was it a big boy that stole your sweets and ran away and nobody listened to you?
SouthStreet
Posts: 268
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.50
RE: This should be a fantastic ride..
Today 13:06
Jiberish - the starting gun has been going off since 70p according the the deluded /bullish on this board and here we are at 7.5p where you can buy any amount!
It's binary now - Up a bit or down to zero.
Idiotic thoughts about it going to 70p or wherever are mental
Get real!




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