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Shares were admitted on 19 March so 40 days will be a week Saturday.
But Affimers have several advantages over Mabs and aptamers… apart from earning any cash.
BSHL2, I think you may have misinterpreted Wyn’s post, which referred to Myles? I’m pretty certain that Wyn wasn’t referring to Bellamy, when he posted “There was a time the release of his latest update even moved the SP.....”
Wyndham 11.40 today
"Thats a little disingenuous gje, his (Bellamy) analysis has been based on the results. And he has(and still has), quite a few supporters here who have appreciated his "papers" on AVCT over the YEARS"
Bellamy a member since 18.01.24 though..
Makes you wonder exactly how long this pair have been deramping.
Some session that!
Reckon they’ll tell us more next week
Must be over soon?
Careful Energy, Wynnie will be calling you a gambler next!
Ten Bob Tony won 7/1 at Newmarket today
Bloody hell 50p Tony Gardiner 😂😂
Whether or not you fancy munching Optimers with your Unilever food product is perhaps not the point – though interesting that the regulatory ‘bar’ for food additives is, perhaps (?), lower than for Pharma products. However, the point about Optimers as a competitor to Affimers is a good one.
APTA look like they’re at least 3 years behind AVCT in terms of Optimers for Therapeutic application. Having said that, the technology platform, and certainly Optimer use in Dx, is complimentary. Have previously mused that AVCT may want to acquire APTA?
The apparent lack of interest shown is simply another indicator that reinforces my view that AVCT’s horizon is less than ~2 years. Get P2 underway, get some IP protection for pre|CISION™ +/ADC and any other new chemistry, make some progress with AVA3996 IND, AffyXell IND, sort out Dx, etc. and then we’re into licensing and acquisition discussions. Could be much sooner rather than later – ‘time is fleeting’.
GLA
Isn't the embedded derivative element just the conversion feature of the bond i.e. HC can issue a notice of conversion at any time to convert part of the principal into shares, but cannot go any lower than the conversion price.
Optimers direct competitor to affimers. Would be nice to have Unilver onboard.....
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-16411110-6JKC2FR5UKO721KJSJ4RI687G2
Don't know why you bother, it's a death spiral, we're doomed ☠️
There is also the Derivative element whcih was showing as a credit at last valuation. It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the upcoming financials.
'The bond agreement contains embedded derivatives in conjunction with an ordinary host debt liability. As a result, the convertible bonds are shown in the Consolidated Statement of Financial Position in two separate components, being 'Convertible bond - debt' and 'Convertible bond - derivative'. The derivative element has been measured at fair value using a Monte-Carlo option pricing model, which estimates the fair value based on the probability-weighted present value of expected future investment returns, considering each of the possible outcomes available to the bondholders.
The derivative element, taking into account the amortisations and early redemption, was revalued as at 30 June 2023 at £28.90 million (30 June 2022: £nil; 31 December 2022: £39.10 million), which has resulted in a credit within the period of £5.86 million.
The debt element of the bond has reduced from £18.73 million at 31 December 2022 to £15.68 million at 30 June 2023 (30 June 2022: £nil), with an associated non-cash interest expense of £6.85 million.'
cje306...at this point I really don't know...just need to see the next payment amount/shares to see what the conversion price has been recalculated at. Like you I don't think the consequences of the Bond are as bad as some may think and the upcoming financials should give us a better idea of company cash burn, DX income v loss status etc etc...
This year is going to be really interesting within the EU with the upcoming elections and of coure UK elections.
If we receive any upfront payments just keep them in the kitty forget cash payments until we are over the line or of course someone gives avacta a serious upfront
What are your assumptions and calculations for B?
Gje306...we also have the ability to pay in cash not shares and DX might, if profits exceed expectations, be in a position to cough up the readies...
There is also the possibility of an upfront deal and/or milestone payments coming into TX before your 2 years are up which again could generate the cash for the bond payments.
The amount of cash Avacta now has there's also the bit of interest earned in intitally which will help cashflow too...every bit helps eh!
My calculations are:
As a result of the Offer Price being less than 95 per cent. of the VWAP in the five-day trading period prior to the announcement of the Placing, the Direct Subscription and the REX Offer, the conversion price (118.75 pence) and the reset floor price (95 pence) will be recalculated by the calculation agent using an adjustment factor calculation as follows:
1. the adjustment factor will be (A+B)/(A+C), where:
1. A = number of Shares in issue immediately before the date of first public announcement of the terms (the "Pricing Date") of the Bookbuild; ......... 288,215,722
2. B = aggregate gross proceeds of the Bookbuild divided by the Current Market Price ("CMP") on the Pricing Date of the Bookbuild, where CMP on the Pricing Date = arithmetic average of the five daily VWAPs immediately preceding the Pricing Date; and .............37,971,582 based on 0.8764 average
3. C = number of Shares comprised in the Bookbuild.........62,296,557
Gje306...what conversion price did you come up with for the recalculation as detailed in the Placing RNS? I get 0.93 but not sure that's correct...
As a result of the Offer Price being less than 95 per cent. of the VWAP in the five-day trading period prior to the announcement of the Placing, the Direct Subscription and the REX Offer, the conversion price (118.75 pence) and the reset floor price (95 pence) will be recalculated by the calculation agent using an adjustment factor calculation as follows:
1. the adjustment factor will be (A+B)/(A+C), where:
1. A = number of Shares in issue immediately before the date of first public announcement of the terms (the "Pricing Date") of the Bookbuild;
2. B = aggregate gross proceeds of the Bookbuild divided by the Current Market Price ("CMP") on the Pricing Date of the Bookbuild, where CMP on the Pricing Date = arithmetic average of the five daily VWAPs immediately preceding the Pricing Date; and
3. C = number of Shares comprised in the Bookbuild.
The principal remaining under the Bonds was reduced by a further £2.55 million to £38.25 million on 22 January 2024 following the fifth quarterly amortisation.
Here are the calculations for the next 2 years assuming a share price of 30p:
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| SP % | 4P S | 4P D | 8P S | 8P D |
|--------+--------+--------+--------+--------|
| 0 | 0.3 | 8.17 | 0.3 | 13.9 |
| 1 | 0.31 | 8.06 | 0.32 | 13.52 |
| 3 | 0.33 | 7.86 | 0.37 | 12.82 |
| 5 | 0.35 | 7.67 | 0.42 | 12.18 |
| 10 | 0.4 | 7.24 | 0.58 | 10.83 |
| 15 | 0.46 | 6.86 | 0.8 | 9.74 |
| 20 | 0.52 | 6.53 | 1.07 | 8.87 |
+--------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
That is less than 2% per quarter on average. If it drops to 30p and rises back up to 50p by 2025 then we're looking at 8.87% or just over 1% per quarter on average.
Amortization is on our side now. Any more than 2 years at 30p and none of us will be here 😂
Timster who told you that maccieD is drop the Tmac that just outrageous. Its KFC for me now
Even if they do get rid of DX they will keep affimers. Will just be as before designing affimer for clients like with affyxcell.
And one of the new pre|CISION products also utilises affimer.
On a side note does that mean TMAC shelved?
I agree. Who cares what McPumpy writes. That includes those pointing out thatba monkey with a pin would have more success and those who insist on posting "Myles say..." post as if they were gold dust.
End of the day what he says and does are two different things and only the gullible would pay any attention and are funding any success he has through their losses - every seller needs a buyer. QED
Looks like Tx will be sustainable seperate from Dx - cash runway, milestones and potential partners. Precision not reliant on affimers - see latest presentation talking about Fc fragments.
Dx was more precarious until last year. However, acquisitions have made a sustainable company more attainable. Profits from the two new arms can fund the Avacta activity. Affimer tech might unlock more potential and new structure / leadership may result in shift in progress which to date looks minimal for at least a decade.
Therefore ebabling a future split into two companies may have been the idea all along - avacta Dx not viable on its own but has jam tomorrow promise.
Outrageous, even the finest troll twat isn't worth £10 a post. As PL75 says these are exceptional twats but come on....!