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Maybe AS will do a interview with Vox and a paul hill will get a massive scoop!
i ran the numbers to get a better understanding of the impact, no prompting from anyone. as we saw, they're really not that bad given all the reasons i mentioned; in particular:
- the worst payments have been
- the ever reducing principal and interest payments
- the fact that it is still spread over 3.5 years
- the heavy weighting to the final payment in 3.5 years
there's going to be no sudden and catastrophic dilution event.
when you couple that with the fact that there is now 44m in the bank and so there will be no other source of dilution for the foreseeable - we're good.
you can sit on the side-lines and await events, that's everyone's prerogative, however i'm sure you'll openly admit that you don't have the foggiest what events are inbound and when ;) wyndrum keeps trying to tell us he has a crystal ball, but admit it, you have no idea, any of you, which makes all of what you say completely hypothetical. for example, you might wake up one day to some event and the price is up 500%, or we might go 4 quarters with no news with the share price on its ****. hint, it'll be somewhere between the two.
what i do know however, was that the p1a results were brilliant, and reading between the lines and applying some basic logic about the chemistry involved here, the 2w results are likely to be an improvement on these, so we may not have to wait as long as you think for one of those events.
so, hc shares will undoubtedly apply downward pressure, but not that much. on the other hand, stonking 2w results, which are not that far away, could apply far more upwards pressure. it's for everyone to work out when the best time to be in our out is, however, so long as we have this singular focus from your crew, then it's important to keep raising awareness of the upside to this proposition, for balance.
Can't be far off now, can it.
Like RAH on twitter....everyday....relentlessly....the same stuff over and over
Key - "....you could carve out a portion of what a large pharmaceutical partner of the right calibre might be interested in."
Thanks BV,
So Ben, when I said "AS also confirmed there would be no license deals in the foreseeable future having apparently already rebuffed any lesser deals." as a precis of what BV has kindly posted, you still think I am lying and making things up?
Investor webinar https://www.turnerpope.com/investor-evenings/webinars/ response to question @29:30:
"We've got sufficient data now to partner the pre|CISION platform. ... Clinical data is absolutely key to deals and deal value. We've now got very clear, irrefutable clinical evidence that the platform selectively targets a warhead to the tumour tissues, etc, etc.
"A couple of things are critical to us in the commercial partnering process. One is continuing to build that body of [positive data, as just described]. The second is to be in a strong negotiating position with a long cash runway which we also now have. In terms of strategy, we want to retain as much as we can right now because we know how valuable the pre|CISION platform is, so doing small quick deals is not attractive nor sensible. So care needs to be taken right now to do the right deals, with the right partners obviously, otherwise we actually risk reducing the value of the commercial opportunities. For example, we don't want to do deals that cut across our own pipeline strategy ... and we don't want to do small deals, which are easy to do of course but you could carve out a portion of what a large pharmaceutical partner of the right calibre might be interested in."
So he's saying "Unless you're prepared to offer us a massive deal we're not interested."
I miss the old AS, who might have said something like "We're exploring all avenues but will be guided by obtaining the maximum longterm value from the platform." Ambiguous, but would have kept potential partners, traders and shorters on their toes.
" sit on the sidelines to await events,"
Good idea Thorn, cheerio.
But also including the Share Price GJE.
Your recent Contract Loan Notes calculations were designed to reassure, with some prompting you ran the numbers assuming a share price of just 30p.
The problem however is that each round Height's repayment effectively sets a new floor for the share price.
Today we might close at 47.5p? Loose another 2.5p by next week and then the conversion of shares at a 10% discount to the prevailing share price will be at 40p.
Already half way to your 'worst case scenario' figures which you tabulated earlier this week!
3 months time: 30p? etc etc.
CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price.
If it's falling and everyone knows it's likely to fall further then why not sit on the sidelines to await events?
"All we have is what has actually happened before as a reference."
Including the p1a results, which are as good as I could have hoped for given the patient cohorts. All success criteria of the p1a phase ticked off, with a Brucey bonus of observed efficacy in a group of patients that were never anticipated respond positively to the treatment.
I look back at that very recent event, satisfied. Now I look forward to the Q2W, which it's hard to see how these won't be even better given the treated cohorts are going to be more targeted (the last we heard) and the dosing more frequent.
Why is avacta at its lowest market cap for years ?? It isn't. But I can tell you why it's perhaps lower than it should be .Its because there are many more shares in issue since Avacta's sp started charging in April 2020 .And since 2021 almost all junior sp prices have absolutely tanked .That's because in 2020 , half of the country had free covid money and lots of time on their hands to invest in Aim stocks .Which they truly did .And volume of trading was off the scale .Since covid money disappeared in 2021 , sp's across the board have tumbled massively. Many companies are over 80% down , and then some .There just isn't the volume on juniors anymore as the financial climate has changed .Interest rates are the highest for around 15 years and the Ftse has been largely positive too . All of the above is why the junior markets in general have been in a slump for certainly the last 3 years now . The evidence to back up the above is undeniable. The bull market we saw in 2020 has long since disappeared.
Bfd, its not that I think AVCt will be taken private but simply highlight that it could happen to refute the "Its all about the science and the science works, so we will have to be patient but it will all be ok, so just keep using these low prices to top up" brigade.
If the trial is delayed or has any sort of set back which costs time and the there is more money needed, then given the costs of listing (which are pretty high I believe), then an option would be to de-list and go private ala SuperDry at the moment.
As I say I don't think this is the most likely outcome but it is not beyond the realms. That was/is my point.
Its not about the science its all about the money.
I have no idea of the calibre of the staff of AVCT, other to say this BB was full of the same type of things when JV's were being discussed and new staff were being recruited for the LFT.
And that whether people like it or not this is a red flag for me. I hope this will be different but it is following the same path as the LFT inasmuch, best in the world, everything going great, deals being inked etc etc. but delay after delay kept occurring. and money being raised
Now we have a paradigm shift in this tech, everything going great, small deals being turned down etc etc, but with delay after delay and money being raised.
My default position is we don't actually know anything about what's going on either in the trial or the actual company. All we have is what has actually happened before as a reference. Does not mean history will repeat itself, but common sense should at least surface to be aware that this is a very high risk company that has a very poor track record to date about commercialising their tech.
So when I read chomp chomp, buy now, top here there and everywhere, I think it prudent to remind people of what we actually know as opposed to what we guess/hope is going on.
Lol .
So much for all the ramping!
I tend to agree but…
Simply put; the growing evidence that Precision works is continually reducing risk, the actions taken by management are continually increasing risk.
Two things make for a good biotech company; good technology, and good management.
Avacta will never realise true value with AS at the helm; the technology warrants a leader of far higher calibre. It’ll also never realise true value whilst listed on AIM.
I’m not investing a penny more until the above two issues show signs of being resolved.
To summarise and coin a McPumpy classic, it’s the cheapest it’s ever been!
Narcissistic personality disorder is a mental health condition in which people have an unreasonably high sense of their own importance. They need and seek too much attention and want people to admire them. People with this disorder may lack the ability to understand or care about the feelings of others.
My issues with Wyn posts is that they are so frequent & long winded & repetitive.
Who wants to hear a monologue from one person?
And more perplexing is who really wants to spend all day sharing their opinion, why is it so important to continuously try and get your point across?
I like to hear a diverse range of views so please tone back on the white noise.
Of course I don’t have a proper job Shepee, I’m really paragliding through the Pyrenees atm, just went over a boring bit so I thought I’d check in
Just catching up.
'all the good posters have gone'. Maybe they sold at 54p and will be back soon? (I wish I had. I also bet those >117p easily impressed friends of Donald had waited too).
People say that the LFT was a failure but where would AVCT be now had the cash raises not taken place. Would AVCT have any money at all now? Hard to tell.
AS seems to manage, like a space ship uses the planets to sling-shot before heading into deep space, to use LFTs, PIs, to keep the company moving forward. Let's hope that speed is picked up rather than crashing into the surface due to orbit decay.
Wyndrum, personally i like your posts although i rarely fully agree with them. Atleast you usually provide a considered if long winded view of what you perceive to be the reality.
I am a little surprised by your contention that AVCT could be taken private and shareholders lose everything. This simply isn't, and never has been the case. If AVCT were to go private, which i doubt, the most shareholders would lose would be some liquidity.
I must also take issue about your depiction of the BOD. Simon and Christina seem to me to be people of the highest integrity who didn't need to come to Avacta. AS i do not trust as i have posted before, but i think you are looking through a historic lens that is simply no longer relevant.
My biggest concern at the moment, as i have been posting for a few months now, is somebody is trying to do the same here as was done to SAR. SAR have got rid of any form of CLN, AVCT need to do the same
Ben thought you had a proper job to go to . Obviously not
Good time to top up imo
20p to ATM and continue to hold. I think P1 results vindicate this - only lose or make if you sell and given the data the argument favouring eventual RoI from here looks better than it ever has and thst included the lft jam tomorrow promises
End of 40 day silence coming up. Turnip and no Hope have sight of comms. Share price......
From my persoective we have information coming out that shows the board made a mess of it and chose a path that destroyed value. This is why SP remains where it us despite what i think are fantastic P1 results. At some point sentiment about avct will change but only on rns that detail value being realised. Hard to take but ive been here across price of