We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Just wonder what the "loss of office" ££££ were ?
Agree RTW seem a much better manager.
Glad the U.S. Vultures came out worst than ordinary holders.
2nd vote passed as expected (97.84%)
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ARIX/scheme-effective/16328759
I, for one, welcome our new RTW overlords.
Final comparison:
RTW(Bid) $1.38 x 1.4633 x 79.2p/$ = 159.9p ARIX
or perhaps more usefully now:
ARIX 143p / 79.2p/$ / 1.4633 = $1.234 RTW
$1.38 = $1.234 + 11.8%
No significant impact yet on the RTW SP, but let's see what happens tomorrow when the new shares arrive on the scene.
Moving over to the RTW board now I suppose. See you all there? GLA
Small correction: "$500k" should be "$500m" obviously.
That's a good list. I've also been trying to convince myself I'm missing something here, but I haven't been able to, so I've been accumulating these over the past two weeks in the expectation of reasonably easy gain (famous last words !!).
Fully expecting a small pull back on RTW with ARIX holders selling immediately after conversion, but expect that to be short lived.
Last day of Arix trading, and the SP mismatch still persists. I've tried hard to come up with ideas why this might be so, and here's a few theories:
1. The market cap is too small for institutional investors to get involved. They often impose a minimum limit on themselves. (As an aside, the merged company will have a mcap above $500k, which might bring it onto the radar for some IIs. Hopefully the liquidity might improve too.)
2. Cautious retail investors (e.g. the sort that invest in funds rather than individual companies) think there's no such thing as a free lunch, if it looks too good to be true...
3. Less cautious retail investors aren't interested in making a few percent profit, however nailed on it looks. They're far to busy trying to multibag with HE1 and the likes.
4. Fear of a post-merger sell-off by ex-Arix holders. If this happens, it might be better to hold back cash to take advantage.
5. $/£ exchange rate risk, or just not wanting to hold $-denominated shares.
6. Some retail platforms may not support RTW shares. HL does. Fidelity will give partial support - it will let people hold the acquired RTW shares and sell them in due course, but not buy new ones. Those are the only two I know about.
7. Worry that the second vote won't achieve the required 75%. This seems unlikely given the 92.22% in the first vote. (It's amusing that in theory RTW could get cold feet and use their 25.5% to scupper the deal themselves! But they've RNS'd undertakings to vote in favour.)
I'm not really convinced by any of these, can someone else do better?! GLA
Hi Dret, with respect I think you might have misunderstood. This isn't like a rights issue, where the SP adjusts on the ex-rights date. On completion, yes, there will be more RTW shares in existence, but the market cap should have grown by (roughly) the same factor, due to the addition of the Arix assets. If this wasn't the case then RTW shareholders could just sell their shares now and buy them back cheaper after completion.
Having said that, it's still a mystery why RTW holders aren't doing something very similar - selling and buying back cheaper via Arix shares!
There might be a sell-off in RTW following completion, as some Arix holders may not want to be RTW holders, but you'd think that would be anticipated and reflected in today's RTW SP. (Some might regard such a sell-off as a good buying opportunity.)
Anyway, just a week now till we see how it all pans out. GLA
Don't forget that the RTW share price will adjust on completion for the issue of the new shares to Arix holders
Today RTW(Bid) $1.385 x 1.4633 x 79.75p/$ = 161.6p ARIX
- still 13% above 143.1p (dummy sell of 10k shares), and I still can't understand why this apparent arbitrage remains!
Perhaps the gap will close when the deal completes? I.e combined entity will trade down?
Any theories on why the gap between the current ARIX price and the RTW conversion price isn't closer ?
I know there's still some risk, and currency movements involved - but the size of the gap seems odd to me given it's only two weeks out now - almost a "too good to be true" opportunity.
Hi Oldnbald, did you miss yesterday's RNS?
The second vote, on 12th Feb, will require "at least 75 per cent. of the votes cast in respect of it", but after yesterday's 92.22% that isn't looking like a problem.
Today RTW(Bid) $1.37 x 1.4633 x 78.9p/$ = 158.2p ARIX
I am assuming that they do not need 51% of shares to approve - just 51% of shares who VOTE - and as there are many nominee held shares that probably wont vote it may be easier to pass
Clearly going ahead then.
The 1st GM should be starting soon (anyone there?), and I assume we'll have the results of the vote RNS'd soon after. Assuming both this and the 2nd vote are in favour, there's still ~10% SP discrepancy to be filled:
RTW(Bid) $1.36 x 1.4633 x 78.7p/$ = 156.6p ARIX
Well well, just before close I did a dummy sell and was offered 143p for 10000 shares (I didn't accept). So we've finally achieved the 'indicative value' of Nov 1st. It looks like someone has embraced the arbitrage and is hoovering up.
Acacia have sold out below the share price, well below the share price they would have for the combined entity and well, well below NAV.
Its great when the little guys win.
Thanks for the reply .IW have sent just the comms from the Co thru and it is as clear as mud
Sgd, actually worked out quite well in the end.
Happy to have the rtw team managing money rather than the arix team and their Caribbean holidays.
Just to clarify, I mean the reduced payment to Acacia is good for us. More generally the exchange rate is not so for us as our future RTW shares will be worth less in pence. (Apologies if I'm stating the obvious.)
I had my vote request on ajbell last week.
Hah - because of movement in the $£ exchange rate Acacia have only been paid 137p per share by RTW - and as future RTW shareholders that's good for us!
Sorry, it was specific for HL account holders. I also have shares with Fidelity, but had no communication from them.
Hello
any chance you could post the mail on this board please? I've tried to find out how to vote but have so far failed. IWeb have my shares.
Cheers sgd - of course.
What would make me laugh if the share price went above 1.43.
I've just had an email from Hargreaves Lansdown with instructions on how to vote online. There's a deadline of 7pm on Wednesday 24 January 2024.