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Sorry if this is repeated guys, now showing as this short is closed, anyone know the date this was amended please?
Thanks and GLA
Looking really good now. Oil back on the way up and should breach 100p again soon. Results any day now will clarify alot and we should see the overdue surge begin.
74.3p at the close, +9.25%:
https://www.ice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5600724
17/03/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2500 *** Avg cal value 41.2528 ***
17/03/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,026,667.0000 *** 6.2366 mmscf/d ***
17/03/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1766 *** 69,153 Therms ***
Gas Price Per Therm 18.03.24 = £0.72
Gas Price Per Therm 18.03.23 = £1.05
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 31.13 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 69,153
Month To Date (Therms) = 1,202,969
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 6.2366
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 108.5502
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 70,763
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,193,650
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6546
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £421,346
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,142,871
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,125,728
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,089,130 £1,081,414
Mar-24 2,193,650 £1,142,871 Forecast
2024 Q1 6,823,158 £3,689,751 Forecast
2024 Q1 Therms Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,089,130 £1,081,414
Mar-24 2,193,650 £1,142,871 Forecast
Apr-24 2,122,887 £1,032,310 Forecast
May-24 2,193,650 £1,002,355 Forecast
Jun-24 2,122,887 £970,021 Forecast
Total 13,262,583 £6,694,437 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,167,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 70,763
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,552,045
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £8,234,696
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.35
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
15/03/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.4000 ***avg cal value 41.2528 ***
15/03/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,018,889.0000 *** 6.2119 mmscf/d ***
15/03/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1759 *** 68,887 Therms ***
16/03/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3800 ***avg cal value 41.2528 ***
16/03/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,040,000.0000 *** 6.2754 mmscf/d ***
16/03/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1777 *** 69,607 Therms ***
Regards,
Well done Ukraine, what goes around comes around.
Fair point, Bubblepoint.
With Putin re-elected for a further 6 years, Europe's prospects remain troubled.
Ocelot,
Pretty certain the move on futures gas is primarily linked to the notable attacks on a good number of Russian refineries and gas plants ongoing, which could see a bigger push on prices, depends if these plants and refineries keep getting knocked out, as there are still importers of Russian gas within Europe.
Https://www.ice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5600724
14/03/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3700 ***avg cal value 41.2525***
14/03/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,944,444.0000 *** 5.9823 mmscf/d ***
14/03/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1694 *** 66,347 Therms ***
Gas Price Per Therm 15.03.24 = £0.68
Gas Price Per Therm 15.03.23 = £1.05
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 35.31 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 66,347
Month To Date (Therms) = 995,322
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 5.9823
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 89.8264
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 71,094
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,203,927
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6497
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £424,855
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,146,380
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,129,185
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,089,130 £1,081,414
Mar-24 2,203,927 £1,146,380 Forecast
2024 Q1 6,833,434 £3,693,260 Forecast
2024 Q1 Therms Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,089,130 £1,081,414
Mar-24 2,203,927 £1,146,380 Forecast
Apr-24 2,132,832 £1,040,266 Forecast
May-24 2,203,927 £1,009,549 Forecast
Jun-24 2,132,832 £976,983 Forecast
Total 13,303,025 £6,720,056 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,167,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 71,094
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,508,076
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £8,379,594
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.36
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
The Frack Free Balcombe title is comical, it's all about the nimby snobbery regarding house prices, nothing more nothing less.
Angus is also hoping for confirmation SOON that it is permitted to conduct a long-term test of the Balcombe-2Z well. (RNS of 22/02)
Soon could be very soon, FFBRA (Frack Free Balcombe Residents Association) were expecting to hear whether its application to appeal had succeeded in January or February:
https://drillordrop.com/2023/12/13/balcombe-residents-raise-5500-for-court-appeal/
Green jail button
Use the filter. Atb
Looks like they are STILL fighting to get proper stability through the plant, rates are up and down like a like the SP, likely fighting a tough battle due to condensates/liquids causing too much interference in the flow dynamics.
I think the velocity string/s will be sooner than later.
13/03/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2400 ***avg ca;l value 41.2519 ***
13/03/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 1,523,333.0000 *** 4.6863 mmscf/d ***
13/03/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1327 *** 51,978 Therms ***
Gas Price Per Therm 14.03.24 = £0.62
Gas Price Per Therm 14.03.23 = £1.08
Year On Year Variance Price Per Therm = - 42.48 %
Daily Output (Therms) = 51,978
Month To Date (Therms) = 928,974
Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 4.6863
Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 83.8441
Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.01.2024= 71,460
Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00
F/C Monthly Therms = 2,215,247
Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.6477
F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525
F/C Market Revenue = £430,870
F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,152,395
F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,135,109
Links To Source data Files =
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*
Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*
1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024
2024 Q1 Therms Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,089,130 £1,081,414
Mar-24 2,215,247 £1,152,395 Forecast
2024 Q1 6,844,755 £3,699,274 Forecast
2024 Q1 Therms Revenue
Jan-24 2,540,377 £1,465,465
Feb-24 2,089,130 £1,081,414
Mar-24 2,215,247 £1,152,395 Forecast
Apr-24 2,143,787 £1,049,030 Forecast
May-24 2,215,247 £1,017,473 Forecast
Jun-24 2,143,787 £984,651 Forecast
Total 13,347,576 £6,750,428 Forecast
12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.35mmscf/d
PE Factor = 5.00
Ord Shares = 4,167,893,340
FC Avg Therms / Day = 71,460
Debt Outstanding KPI* = £4,458,492
12 Mth Rev-Debt = £8,542,677
12 Mth Share Price (p) F/C = 1.37
Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan
Regards,
12/03/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3900 ***avg cal value 41.2520 ***
12/03/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,007,778.0000 *** 6.1765 mmscf/d ***
12/03/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1749 *** 68,508 Therms ***
I think it's best if shareholders ignore those who have no vested interest in Angus Energy, we all know they only post the same regurgitated rubbish at every opportunity.
YW Ocelot, just my view, nowt else.
Thank you for your insights, Bubblepoint.
Ocelot,
I would expect that to be the minimum they would expect from Brockham AFTER all works including reperforation, otherwise it is pointless.
As for todays oil price, you have to apply discount to that, likely 10%, tankering per bbl, any water removal, new site Opex, as it would almost certainly require manning while active.
There is insufficient pressure to surface, which is why they may well be able to complete works rigless, I also suspect they feel there are issues with wellbore replenishment, thus reperf to improve flow and possibly extend original perfs. 50/50 if it all does enough tbh.
Bubblepoint,
£1m, at the present Brent price of $85 and $ exchange rate of 1.28 = about 41.5 bopd.
Is that the kind of figure you think Brockham may produce?
Ocelot,
Although Brockham is almost certainly able to be done rigless, it is still likely to have a cost of around £1m to pull everything, fix or replace pump, replace the tubing string and possibly reperforate, which even with a modest improvement on production, would likely take a year to recover that Opex/Capex requirement.
Still, better than dormant, though not a game changer.
PS: now they can complete "events after the reporting period" for the 22/23 annual report.
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ANGS/result-of-meeting/16378296