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Stop carping and talk to me
But this BB is the place for you to make defamatory, malicious and totally baseless accusations....
Yep, that is at least consistent.
Just to quickly come back on that. That is the reason I suggested we talk privately on Sunday. I have no intention of clearing things up until at least you understand the situation and certainly the discussion is not for these bbs.
"you might then just retract some of the sarcasm you send my way."
Maybe I will when you retract some of the baseless, defamatory accusations that you made at the time, Drewky. But I have seen absolutely no sense at contrition on that count.
It was quite clear at the time that the message from a pr perspective was quite different to the reality from egm reports, and from a very reliable source. Things seem to be more transparent of late and I hope the new people at the helm continue in that way. Time will tell as the recent transparency is pretty much forced rather than given. As for timescales, I still think it’s as long as a piece of string. I’m hoping for history to repeat itself and have a December ch1 spud.
Just my own reading of the way things lay at the moment but don't put your house on it, as Pete says even when I had the earlier mentioned in black and white in front of me, I was subsequently proved to be wrong and that defies logic.
What gives you that understanding drewky? I don’t think even the BoD have that from anything in the public domain I’ve seen. I’m not trying to be negative here.
No Jonah we are not up the creek without a paddle ffs. We have been dealt a rough hand by the government bureaucracy and measures are being undertaken to see us through. I understand that a go ahead may not be as far away you would have us believe but will that be proved right or wrong. Put it this way I've not given up hope of producing this year
Pete you were proven right but my arguement back then was based on what we were publically led to believe at the time which you do know. It was put in black and white on the website and it was there because following our disagreement when you came back from the egm and put into question everything we were being told, I pressed directly for clarification and I got it, with that resulting in it being made public. That contradicted your position which I could not ignore at the time. That is now water under the bridge for me but I actually think we should talk personally sometime, clear the air and set a few things straight, you might then just retract some of the sarcasm you send my way.
so we up the creek or rapids without a paddle then Crusty, so don`t invest for at least a year is that what you are thinking or come back in a year, I certainally don`t think there be any movement this year but this is the big thing no one knows really ????
As I stated on 11th January... when you above all others was stating that AEX were actively progressing towards perforating the lower zone, were fully funded for remediation and had all necessary approvals; oh and of course that I was lying, manipulative and deliberately negative. Do you still maintain that now Drewky?
"why, if the company has more than sufficient cash to proceed with the remediation work and don't need any approvals to do so, why oh why, have they not done so long before now?"
Why a rhetorical question? Well because I can give you the answers.
1) AEX currently has very little cash and cannot be sure when the next tranche of cash is going to arrive. They are contingent on deliveries that are beyond the BoD's control.
2) Because of the lack of operational activity in Tanzania over the last two years there are no service companies nor any equipment in the country and consequently getting resource and equipment into the country is unusually expensive right now.
3) Most importantly even if they did do the "soaking" and perforation now, without the approvals in place they run the risk of having to wait months before being able to "connect" to the GPP; if so they would have to "shut-in" the well yet again. This would inevitably come with increase risks; the well would fill with water, they may run the risk of damage to the bore and such things as the valve sticking may reoccur. Hence they could have to pay to do this all over again at some future point.
4) Because even if they did all of the above and connected to the GPP with the TPDC claim hanging over their head there is still no guarantee that they would get paid for any gas that they produce nor get paid on outstanding invoices.
5) The very fact that KN1 is not producing is about the only piece of leverage that AEX still have. JB has stated in the past that if they had there own way they might well have abandoned it by now but that (you would never know it) the TPDC are keen for it to produce anything as long as it is the minimum to keep Songo Songo GPP operating (July AGM)
In summary it is in AEX's interests keep this on the back burner until AEX has guarantee of future source of cash"
Maybe some will now accept that what I was saying both before and after the EGM was NOT the machiavelian machinations of some one looking to pervert the truth for their own benefit, or manipulate the market, or engineer a lower entry point..... with the benefit of hindsight some might now accept that it was all true. And that those relying on the one line answers provided in FAQ's as the "reality" were predictably naive.
".....he company would and should be reluctant to spend what little it has in the coffers while they are not paying up, it would be silly to take that risk until this is sorted."
I absolutely agree Drewky and have been saying so when all around kept telling everyone that they had sufficient to pay for Kiliwani remediation and that work was actually underway (how ridiculous that assertion now looks); well even if that was true (it wasn't) it does not mean to say that they would have chosen to spend it when they did not know where, or more appropriately when, the next pound (dollar) was coming from and no guarantee that remediation would work.
My feelings given the current information are that the company would and should be reluctant to spend what little it has in the coffers while they are not paying up, it would be silly to take that risk until this is sorted. I have had a suspicion this was reason for the lack of action but I think the company has been a little economical with the truth on it rather than be straight with us. Sometimes it's better to let the poo go in a controlled manor rather than hope it doesn't hit the fan and especially when the government you are dealing with control when the fan gets switched on. I'm still saying strong buy here as the fundamentals and the business modal stacks up for me. I also think the bod, though they may have made a few mistakes, have acted with good intentions and in good faith. My annoyance lays with the crooked companies and corrupt officials that have raped and pillaged third world countries for greed. Magufuli is just trying sort it out but sadly that's harming all our pockets right now. As for your comment Jonah. Shall we worry about July 31 when it comes? Meanwhile please talk more about your football program business as you are more upbeat and less depressing on that subject :0))
"If there is to be a revision of the Kiliwani PSA terms it would be impossible to evaluate the commerciality of the cost of remediation?"
As CP also suggested just a few days ago...
unless before the 31st July the items are signed off then we will expect more downside like after March and boy did I know it lol, I suspect being oversold short term at the very least AEX SP will tread water, if you were going to make a quick 10%-20% profit Friday was the time lets see what happens going forward GLA !!!
You are correct Drewky there is nothing in that article that specifically pinpoints Aminex as a culprit but it would also be complacent to assume that they are totally innocent too. Is it just a coincidence that the TPDC are suggesting that Ntorya partners owe them circa six million dollars....? I suggest that the two things are not totally unconnected.
Might this not also be (partly) behind the lack of progress on KN1? If there is to be a revision of the Kiliwani PSA terms it would be impossible to evaluate the commerciality of the cost of remediation?
Chris yes I think that was the news I was referring too. Without reading it again I believe the article also confirms what I've been saying for two years about a 25 year licence being guaranteed because it is written within the PSA This whole charade has happened because of government delays and this phoenix will rise in the near future imo
Drewks, both GL and I posted the update from the end of May this year, almost a full year since that report, see below. The contract review with all 11 companies is complete and they are reviewing PSA terms now.
https://dailynews.co.tz/news/2019-05-305cef8647f10c8.aspx
There is no alleged dubious contract with Ndovu as I can see at all and that report does not say that there is. It merely states that a couple were signed by Tanzanian officials who themselves were under investigation. Of course all agreement signed by these guys have been gone over with a fine tooth comb as was released last week where it stated quite clearly the main issues were offshore. Clearly this gave us reasons for the long delay but to say our contracts are alleged to be dubious is completely false based on that article and unless or until of course there is an official source that tells us otherwise it would be wise to keep malicious unfounded allegations of the bbs. If anyone can show an official allegation or proof of wrong doing angainst Ndovu I'll accept it but not until. Btw did anyone else notice that report is about readings in parliament that took place a tear ago in June 2018, things will have moved on from then, how far is what we wait to see. The Bod have reasonable expectation to complete by July but it is a government we deal with. GLA
Contract review for all 11 companies is complete, they are working on the PSA terms now.
Er, fjones, A couple of the alleged ‘dubious contracts’ were with Ndovu Resources ie Aminex. So, our contracts are probably being reviewed for ‘good faith’ IMHO
interesting GasLady thanks and maybe suggest the Licence will be issued to AEX at some point as they surly not in the others bracket, I just bought some blue ink yesterday ready for all the blue days coming up in the future :o)
found this - a little more background info on the AG reviews:
https://www.assayerisk.com/20180608-tanzania-special-committee-report-oil-and-gas/
nice to see a bit of blue for a change - somebody has finally bothered to change the empty toner cartridge...was getting a tad fed up with the single one colour red of late ...have a lovely weekend chaps - smile - it may be wet atm but the summer sun is coming...
:-o)
AG completes review of 11 gas pacts
https://habarileo.co.tz/habari/2019-05-305cef8647f10c8.aspx#
should not be long now I guess - apols if already posted