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BG, not sure that I agree with you on your assertion that "that the first we heard of the CH-1 well testing the Jurassic was Aug 23rd"
That may well have been the first "official" notification that it is the Jurassic that they were targeting but their intentions have been known for a lot longer than that; indeed since NT3 became Chikumbi 1. See quote below from 9th April.
"The planned 2018 well in the Ruvuma PSA, formerly designated as Ntorya-3, has now been renamed Chikumbi-1 at the request of the Tanzanian Government. The well is targeting the same reservoir tested in Ntorya-1 and in Ntorya-2 in an up-dip position and will additionally test a deeper exploration target. The proposed total depth is approximately 3,400 metres."
So I think this unlikely to have influenced the movement of the original September EGM date. The BoD and the TPDC will have had plenty of time to discuss their intention and incorporate this drill into the new license if required (if indeed it is).
Sorry but off line for remainder of the day.
Crusty, "Why did our BoD tell us that the EGM would be in September? Because they did not realise that the EGM needed to be contingent on the Extension? Or that they just told us that knowing that it was highly unlikely or indeed impossible to ever happen? That they thought the extension would be approved in September?"
been thinking on that Crusty, and maybe a valid explanation is, that the first we heard of the CH-1 well testing the Jurassic was Aug 23rd and the updated CPR that will accompany the F/O circular was in the H/Y results Sept 28th. So my thinking is the decision to test the Jurassic was the consequents of the Mtwara extension negotiations , which then occasioned the updated CPR, which would take time, hence the need to move the completion date to the end of Nov.
23 August 2018
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/aminex-AEX/share-news/Aminex-PLC-Operational-Update/78123836
"The tendering process for a rig to drill Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) is now complete and the Company has received numerous bids. These bids are being evaluated on their technical and commercial merits. CH-1 is located updip from both the Ntorya-1 discovery well, which tested at rates of up to 20 MMcf/d with 139 bbls of condensate, and from the Ntorya-2 well which tested at a stabilised rate of approximately 17 MMcf/d. The well is expected to delineate the Ntorya gas field in a significantly thicker section of the Cretaceous reservoir system and (is also being planned to evaluate a potential deeper exploration target in the Jurassic formation)"
H/Y results
"A circular, incorporating an updated Competent Persons Report, will be made available prior to an extraordinary general meeting to approve the transaction"
seems that way ramdomaxe and the charts suggested that if there was no news, well done for thoses who made a quick killing yet again but thats share trading I guess GLA
I see its business as usual here....
Nice post crusty 11.48 lol. Simply put the bod have continually boasted about their great govt relationship. I'd only ever boast about this if it went all the way up to the president and tbh this has only really happened in one country I worked in. But then again I never worked for a company that made such boasts anyway!! As ever all imho, dyor* and best of luck all. * don't just read documents though, understand them and the geopolitical environment they exist in.
" BUT that doesn't mean it will happen."
yes I can't disagree with that, but as speculating investors we try to establish the most probable outcome
Pete FFS stop arguing we actually agree and have done all along, are you to blind to see it?
I don't live my life on peoples opinion, I read what is said by the Bod and what is available in the PSA documents
Are you also really that blind as to the answer I have just given you why they give expected dates? THE PSA and the indications given by TPDC etc
If they change they change don't blame me or the Bod, blame the people that control it! Jeez and you were the clever one on this board
BG I do not disagree with you in the slightest. You might have read my arguing similar on the Solo BB a week ort so ago. Effectively suggesting that a delay in C1 was likely to impact the date for EPS delivery and thereby income to the "partners" and meet the future demand curve for Gas in Tanzania. It is also important for the incumbent Govt with a General Election due in 2020 and is very much in their interests that it does happen.
I absolutely agree that it is very important that we sink the drill bit in December if those ambitions are to be met and I certainly hope that we do. BUT that doesn't mean it will happen.
one thing we do know if Crusty that the 30% rise shows people are ready to jump in and quick so that is a big postitive when things finally start to move upwards again, you were bang on the SP would rock up soonest you went away and now you are back guess what lol ;o)
"FFS, At last! You do actually agree with me that it's in the governments hands!"
"At last?" LOL. Who are you trying to kid .....? Dream on Drewky.
The fact that statements like "we will need the License extension before the Farm-Out or there will be nothing to Farm-In to..." made in April went without your notice then?
I didn't need you to point out that MOST things is in the Governments hands Drewky; Like the granting of the Kiliwani GSA, the KN1 remediation plan, the License extension the 25 Year Development License. The information and expectations that the BoD hands out to shareholders and the market is not.
But please Drewky when are you going to answer my questions from earlier? See below.
Why did our BoD tell us that the EGM would be in September? Because they did not realise that the EGM needed to be contingent on the Extension? Or that they just told us that knowing that it was highly unlikely or indeed impossible to ever happen? That they thought the extension would be approved in September?
Or do you have another explanation because if any of the above it shows the BoD to be either incompetent or untrustworthy or just goes to prove that when it comes to TPDC and Tanzanian Govt no timelines can be relied upon.
Great now the penny has dropped then, so perhaps you can sit back chill out and wait for the event to happen.
Keep repeating stupid questions that we all know the answers to is pointless. There is nothing any of us can do until the government sign it off, so its not a great idea to jump up and down in the supermarket demanding a packet of sweets. It ain't gone happen and will not change the following
"A few decent buys on the bounce could quite easily see a repeat performance of last week's amazing rise with everybody looking out for the leak of the big news.
To hit the stated target the announcement has no more than three weeks in which to land
Farm Out and EGM (Date reconfirmed three times) expected to take place by End November. Being subject to licence approval infers the EGM RNS will be the big one and need to be within next few weeks
“Multiple Targets - 763bcf cretaceous 900bcf Jurassic Gas assumed at lower but liquid potential - Oil shows found down dip previous drill”
4.858 TCF GIIP - for Ruvuma - Ntorya 1.9TCF GIIP - 368 BCF 1C - 763 BCF 2C & 1162 BCF 3C""
As I said Drewky I accept the government hold the cards here. We appear to have been pushed into accepting the farm-out deal by the government by strangling our only source of income at Kiliwani and the farmout deal was lowball IMO. Given it was done without the licence it represents a risk to Zubair (albeit small given most expect the licence to be a formality).
Post-licence we become much more valuable. So who does the binding agreement suit? Not PIs that's for sure because our sp has been decimated while we wait. IMO the binding element mainly suits Zubair Corporation. If agree the farmout and get the (derisory IMO) $5m cash earlier it may have been more palatable as we could at least have looked for an opportunity, any opportunity, outside Tanzania so we are not entirely dependent on the machinations of the Tanzanian Government. It seems that we hold zero cards and our BOD appear paralysed an unable to leverage any influence even over Kiliwani where we already hold a licence!?!
As I stated earlier - if we were pushed into the farm-out by the Tanzanian Government, which seems likely, and the Zubair Corporation have as much clout as is often stated then the licence should just be a formality. Why then are PI's taking all the risk and delay waiting for the licence? Zubair Corp has no shareholders so agreeing the farmout and getting exclusivity should be worth settling now shouldn't it? After all we were told $40m was "pocket change" for Zubair Corp so $5m would be a mere rounding error - why can't our CEO push for an early conclusion to the deal?
"were here for the Kiliwani GSA."
yes, dragged on and on, but I don't think the urgency for KN-1 gas/GSA was so great at that time as M&P/Wentworth had up to 120mmcf/d ready to feed into the main pipeline as the demand was growing. But now regarding Ntorya gas, if the Tanzanian authority want the gas supply to be able to keep up with the projected gas demand growth curve, then they better get on with CH-1 to further appraise Notrya and implement the EPS.
"As it happens Drewky that point has always been totally obvious"
FFS, At last! You do actually agree with me that it's in the governments hands! I have been pointing it out to Tarry and all that wish to blame the Bod for at least six months that this is the case.
On that basis, you know as well as I do that the Bod can only give guidance on projected dates based on documented agreements they have such as the PDSA guidelines.
That PSA allowed for the governement to make demands and requests for changes to any development plan put forward and as such there never has been a definitive time line and I pointed that out on more than one occasion since July 2017 when I read the document.
You pointed out to me last week a word "EXPECTED" People need to study what that word means because some seem to think it means a guaranteed date! We could also add the word "AIM" TRY" "HOPE" "TARGET" etc to the study list.
Still the fact is, we had a 30% rise last week (most of which has held) based on a whisper which does as I said support my view that many are watching and waiting for a leak
BTW the post that all this stupid arguing is trying to bury
"A few decent buys on the bounce could quite easily see a repeat performance of last week's amazing rise with everybody looking out for the leak of the big news.
To hit the stated target the announcement has no more than three weeks in which to land
Farm Out and EGM (Date reconfirmed three times) expected to take place by End November. Being subject to licence approval infers the EGM RNS will be the big one and need to be within next few weeks
“Multiple Targets - 763bcf cretaceous 900bcf Jurassic Gas assumed at lower but liquid potential - Oil shows found down dip previous drill”
4.858 TCF GIIP - for Ruvuma - Ntorya 1.9TCF GIIP - 368 BCF 1C - 763 BCF 2C & 1162 BCF 3C"
I couldn't argue with the logic BG but I am still sceptical of the application. Some of us, you included, were here for the Kiliwani GSA. It's a lesson that those that were shareholders then will not forget in a hurry....
"And for any of the reasons above the November date is no more assured than the September one proved top be"
given that all involved recognize the importance to get the CH-1 well spud by the end of this year, there must be an impetus for all involved to see that the F/O is concluded by end of Nov.
and sorry one and all for my "deliberate mistake" in my first post of the day: it should have read November not September.,
"FWIW I expect the circular in November ( though not necessarily early November) but agree with TB if we don't get it the SP will suffer considerably. And unless the BOD are certain it will happen "on time" would have been better not giving a date."
Apologies all
"Thank goodness Pete the penny is dropping that the government are in control of the guidelines.
Jeez how naieve to expect it to be otherwise when the whole deal is awaiting the licence."
As it happens Drewky that point has always been totally obvious - though our BoD did not seem to recognise or accept it. It was only recently that they had "admitted" that the EGM circular was contingent on the License extension - something that I and several others had suggested months ago....
But you haven't answered the question Drewky. Why did our BoD tell us that the EGM would be in September? Because they did not realise that the EGM needed to be contingent on the Extension? Or that they just told us that knowing that it was highly unlikely or indeed impossible to ever happen? That they thought the extension would be approved in September?
Or do you have another explanation because if any of the above it shows the BoD to be either incompetent or untrustworthy or just goes to prove that when it comes to TPDC and Tanzanian Govt no timelines can be relied upon.
And for any of the reasons above the November date is no more assured than the September one proved top be.
"pre - Ready, steady?"
I like that, yes agree and I think potentially we could get a stonker of an RNS or multiples in a very short space of time.
Seriously Tarry? you can't not provide an estimated date to the market.
The Operator agrees with the TPDC, the TPDC give an estimate for the minister to sign off to ensure that the well is drilled in the dry season.
The Farmout is due to be concludeed next month, the licence needs to be approved by the minister first, so expect to see it soon, exact date unkown. Either way I reckon you will pay more post licence than pre - Ready, steady?
Well leaving it all to the last minute is hardly imbuing us all with confidence is it? If the Zubair Corporation influence is as stated then why do we have to wait for the licence? It's just a formality right? Why not hold the EGM in September as originally planned? The EGM, license and farmout are not in any way shape or form weather dependent: only the drill is and we're unlikely to drill until the other items are concluded. We have no control over the licence but the EGM and farmout conclusion are just a formality right? Why not just conclude now? Why do we have to wait for the licence first?
So in that basis cperkin why provide a date at all? Also what has this got to do with Kiliwani, why are we still waiting to hear about that valve replacement? Has Tanzanian Government confidence in Aminex fallen to a point where we are not even allowed to reperf an existing well?
Does the penny drop on nothing Tarry. They were hoping to drill this year. They spud in a dry season. Aminex and the government know it could put back drill 4/5 months if it's not done so the logical aim seeing they both parties want to get on with it is to try and get it done by November which has always been farm-out completion target and has never changed since it was announced
As I understand it the TPDC have agreed the licence and it is waiting for ministerial sign off and no one dictates to them the exact timeline, seen the same in the UK for licences and approvals and every other country I have invested in.
The Government control the timelines the resources are in their country after all.
I'm still not sure what your point is blackgold? What does the licence award, EGM and farmout conclusion have to do with the dry season? Are you suggesting that somehow these are weather dependent?