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Do bear in mind that most of those historic costs would have been incurred when AEX were the operator and 75% license owner - but what would TPDC be due to fund and as far back as when? NT1 & NT2? No idea.
Not sure about historic costs RJ but a good question - depends, perhaps, on when they were incurred?
Have to leave you now for a little while - out for lunch.
Keep that sp up!! ;0)
There was historically RJ (maybe BG would dig that reference out again) but, I suspect, based on what was said at the AGM it may have been renegotiated as part of the Ntorya GSA discussions. But even if not it was fixed previously at 15%. In any event my last post is still just a relevant, just substitute the numbers.
Another point about back dated costs. Would that be wholly due to Aminex or pro rata with Aminex?
I suppose it's possible they have their back in by means if the negotiated GSA. While we know that has been agreed I don't remember a figure being published
But RJ even if the $35m that is earmarked for Ntorya development was reduced by 20% ($7m) would uyou rather have that $7m in the bank (paid back from future incomes btw) but at the cost of 20% of those future income stream ($8m per annum)
$7m, in the bank (paid over time), versus $8m a year potentially for decades - which do you think will have the greater impact on the sp? I know the answer and so I suspect do you. Cash in the bank NEVER has much of an impact on the sp - annuity income in the form of "guaranteed" future incomes certainly does.
20% is more than I had in mind. I was thinking it was around twelve at one point. I must have missed the Sultans words on that. So much to take in sometimes but yes the lower the slice the better but as you say I don't see this being held back
Well that last we heard "officially, a BG has pointed out, is 15% - BUT - as you may remember, when this was discussed at the last AGM, TW and Sultan stated that they were expecting 20% -perhaps included or clarified as part of the recent GSA.
But yes RJ whatever it is will affect both ARA and AEX pro-rata but a 20% dilution of assets is not to be sneezed at! Though I do not think it will stop the sp rise over coming months with successful completion of various milestones - simply moderate it.
Crusty do you remember what the maximum back in % was?
Obviously if they do take it up then whatever they take if any, it would be only 25% of that attributable to Aminex.
Although it would mean a little dilution; because it means they will have back costs to pay, (maybe paid as you suggested yesterday), it would mean they have to pay their share ongoing, which would make Aminex free carry last longer and once all used up, further ongoing costs will remain that % lower with them paying their way.
By that time Aminex should be rolling in income so personally I don't see it to be a painful negative.
Dr Biteko who also doubles as the Minister for Energy
According to him, the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and its partners have secured a license to conduct natural gas exploration at the onshore Ntorya gas field in Mtwara region.
ICB you reference the FT/IC site - could you be a bit more specific - I would quite like to take a look at that.
Thanks
While we await the RNS it is interesting to contemplate where we might be heading. The II site provides Morningstar’s fair valuation for AEX and clearly this is without the RNS we are awaiting. The Fair Value is 2.2519p so the current sp is a 50% discount to Fair Value.
From the FT/IC site: “ The one analyst offering a 12 month price target expects Aminex plc share price to rise to 3.22 in the next year from the last price of 1.13.” which would be a rise of 185%.
I do not expect anything now until after the Energy show is complete largely because before we get an RNS and, as emptyend pointed out, ARA will need written confirmation of the 25 Year Dev license completion before ARA can release the news to AEX and AEX can release that RNS. With so many "prime movers" at that show/conference I suspect little will move until everyone is back "at their desks" - plus there is the issue of the RNS "approval" before release.
Though as Edgar says and I agree, it is only a question of when and not if we will get it. I am also sure that it will have a positive impact on the sp - though quite how much of an impact is likely to depend on what, if anything gets announced with it? As emptyend has pointed out it could come with a slough of additional activity or pointers to the timelines for such activity. Anything will help - with the possible exception of confirmation of the execution and extent of any uptake of the TPDC's back-in rights. That could have the effect of a considerable dilution.
This weeks Energy show has bought good news and lifted spirits, a few of which were drunk on Wednesday evening. With the expected confirmation due at any moment the 14th to 16th May summit will likely bring even more interesting news to the table. I think we will see a steady news flow throughout this year and beyond.
Were you not underwater needing 4p at one time RoJo?
Now it seems to be 2p so it seems you have been buying cheap on the sly 😜
...so sayeth poor old Under Water Eddie !
If they are doing a signing ceremony, from memory the last one (the GSA) kicked off the share around noon UK time...
I still don't care though ;). It is when not if.
Well Jollyboy - you've got no choice other than to wait, and wait, and wait, and wait...
Staying Jolly like Roger seems a good way to go here.
..And I have no problem staying long and strong here around now, but understand that this stock, like most others, will have its fair share of bedwetters involved too...
Free world that it - mostly/kinda - is, it's not for me to scorn anyone for bed wetting, even adults.
Thinking of the ideal release time. 🤔
11am today could bring big movement and make news in the weekends financial press that will bring the herd for a massive rerate on Monday.
Any thoughts on best time?
Tbh as long as all the I&Ts are dotted and crossed I can wait.
Looks like we're going to be getting morning tree shakes until the RNS drops. Cant imagine people want to be out for the weekend so I expect we will finish blue
This is Tanzania, there has to be a photoshoot. Say cheese 😁
Most likely Monday but watch out for an intraday
...I think you've told us that Haggis (about 40 times).
Dkt. Doto Biteko is not just the Deputy Prime Minister, no, not just that, he is also the Minister for Energy, so if anyone knows the Licence has been granted, it is him, and he's the one that told the press.
How long from sign off to delivery to ARA is the only question.
Good advise .