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Acacia Min Share Chat (ACA)



Share Price: 158.50Bid: 158.40Ask: 158.90Change: -3.90 (-2.40%)Faller - Acacia Min
Spread: 0.50Spread as %: 0.32%Open: 160.40High: 164.20Low: 158.50Yesterday’s Close: 162.40


Share Discussion for Acacia Min




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BIGBangs
Posts: 852
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:167.60
RE: SP fall overdone
15 Apr '19
I was determined not to comment today as I feel this is an opportunity that I want to maximise on - others may choose to sell and put all this behind them but I think VV has really hit the nail on the head. ACA have announced what is effectively a $6 million loss of profit ( that it believes it will make up later in the year) and the market cap has dropped by $129 million - do you really believe that this is a market reaction? I believe it is the shorters having another go - this is how they operate and it’s working. We all wish we had followed HH’s advice and top sliced at £2.50 plus - I am down £300k from there on paper - but we could not know the future and I was not willing to risk missing the rise that I still believe will come - I do not pretend to be happy but I have not lost faith in the fundamentals bad nothing has actually changed.

Barrick announce their prelims on the 18th they presumably hope that this might help lift their SP - who knows but it is another step towards announcing the deal - if this is all to much for you and you see better opportunities elsewhere then sell and get on with it otherwise we are still awaiting the news that we have been expecting for a while, whatever you decide I wish you well.
 
VauxhallViva
Posts: 10
Opinion:Buy
Price:167.60
SP fall overdone
15 Apr '19
Lets get this in perspective..
ACA have produced just over 15,000 oz less than 2018 Q1 (for the one off reasons given). To meet the minimum guidance they need to merely repeat Q2, Q3 ,Q4 from 2018 when they beat 130,000 per quarter. Thus bringing them to 500k+ for the year.
Clawing back the -15k ozs, and ending up at mid annual guidance is not impossible either as it means lifting production, if they are able, by just an extra 3.7% per quarter to compensate.
Nothing else has changed today I assume other than getting this unfortunate update out.?
If not then I conclude that the fall provides more opportunity to buy in, or average down, at a ever increasing discount to the NAV of the company.
My current valuation model(s) of this business give a reduced fair share value, now based on 500k production at today's $1287 gold price, of 326p to 378p. (of course fair implies a level playing field and for that we need Barrick/ GoT to get this sorted!)
Might even sell the Viva to get a few more.. :-)




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