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I see today the fall in miners to be that the World thinks we are moving towards a trade between the Usa and China, and so less tensions, plus what with Boris losing ground for a hard Brexit the pound is rising. That combination is against us and so many have taken profits here gathered over the past couple of weeks.
My feeling is the above might be the case today but as we know life is full of surprises and can change at any minute.
Re the comment on the trade agreement that's a nice summary and a good perspective. I do wonder how much of an effect the trade war is having on china as they devalue the yuan. Next up that the US will do is tackle that so their tariffs have the effect they were meant to have. I still think debt relative to GDP is the true worry and everyone is missing it .
Hi guys - the whole PM’s market is suffering so it makes sense that Barrick as the largest player will suffer the most - they will of course also bounce back the quickest when things turn again.
With regard to your implication that HMQ can or will do anything other than approve whatever her Prime Minister proposes is slightly disingenuous as She is far to seasoned to get involved, by signing the Acts presented to her she neither endorses or condones the contents she wisely simply follows protocol. She is loyal to her Prime Minister or more correctly he is loyal to her she has no constitutional view on the individual. She does not have the constitutional authority to agree a general election outside of laid down procedures. I personally believe we are closer to a no deal / clean break exit from the EU than ever because of the actions of the remain politicians. I also believe that despite the actions of Parliament that an election is imminent and indeed the only way for the people to break the current deadlock - our system only works when one party has a clear majority and can implement its policies - I for one will be happy with a clear mandate whoever wins.
I think MrT is a virtual cert for another term but he will want a deal with the Chinese before then to boost the US economy - the Chinese in turn are desperate for a resolution but the political stakes for them are massive so a cleverly worded trade agreement (if only covering some of the issues) will be implemented in time for the election.
Interesting times.
Hi Super, we ought not to worry about the retreat in our SP too much! How much of the bounce in equities is based on chatter rather than facts I'm not sure. We may sink back some way, but what we enjoyed a couple of weeks back is a pre-cursor to the main narrative to come. Roll on 2020 and another few months. As I have bleated on before, jumping in and out of positions is an impossible game to get right, so just long term hold and things will come good!:-))
Hi Franky yes - I also feel you are correct in your thinking that China is playing a waiting game as they have already said after the 2020 US Elections Mr T may not be in power anyway and so they will see this as .." he has one booking with a yellow already, and with a second yellow he will be off.
As you say this will support Gold far more than the antics in our house of commons. Although I still see a twist coming in that the Queen has authorised Boris's tactics and she might not want to sign any bill for another turn which will be disloyal to Boris. The privy council have advised her after all when agreeing with Boris. She might agree to a general election and in the end the other parties are crying out for Boris to resign to achieve this.
Yes super makes sense...I just can t see politically why China will agree to a deal ahead of the elections. It's a near zero chance this gets resolved any time soon. I can t believe the world is all rosy from one day to the next which will draw a line as to how far gold drops.
I read an article that the Chinese now have control of 75% of all of the Worlds Raw materials. As Trump is imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and products (such as steel as an example) Ford and Apple have already been complaining about the costs of their parts supply making them uncompetitive. I am not sure they have completely worked out the tariffs are coming back to them. I feel that is why he wants to lower the interest rates to lower the dollar as otherwise the rising dollar causes less impact on the Tariffs. Mr T will continue to press for cuts as he wants a cheaper dollar.
Ha..well overall it looks like Jam for us tomorrow not today!-)! I guess a strong dollar makes US manufacturing less competitive. Its 11% of economy but weak..consumers still spending which is the engine room. Patience needed. Might be end of the show for 2019 with gold settling back at 1400-1450. Hardly a disaster.
Yes JP talking later in Zurich which might give an indication of further rate cuts -many are predicting a 0.5% cut will come. This will help us. I think if he does not we can expect a load of tweets from Mr T and pressure back on the Fed.
Hold your shares they will be up very soon-hopefully!!!!
Lower jobs to payroll than estimated the Us economy needs a cut!! This should help us recover - They need growth and the 130,000 jobs to payroll i not enough (over 25,000 were for a census). -Happy days!!!
Hi Franky - very good points as ever but I am wondering as the Chinese lowered their reserve rate and subsequently released several billions of their currency into the market then presumably this has made the Dollar even higher in relative terms and so the Fed must act to cut, otherwise I can see a very angry president tweeting later!!!! We could then get another uplift. I am sure Mr T is an Acacia share holder.
Sounds all about right Super..shame to see the retracement of GP, Barrick and ACA and am mentally prepared for the price to keep falling for a while. China has taken measures to soften the impact of US trade war by hedging into non dollar assets including gold and there is no real incentive for this to get resolved IMO as both economies are still doing OK it would seem. We'll see though. I doubt very much that suddenly all will be well with Brexit HK Iran the Trade War etc etc but I guess a full blown recession won't happen before the US election but soon after I suspect..Mark my words Super (gosh so serious lol) all of the political stuff is a total sideshow bob and a lovely diversion from the main event! The number one thing people need to be gravely worried about is simply Debt. Low rates for all these years and the free money press has made for the mother of all asset bubbles and it will go pop leaving a few bankrupt countries in its wake. POP! lol
Hi Franky. I was thinking if the US economy gives the USD weight and strength it will rise against other currencies, and if they are a trade war they may want the USD not to overheat to enable the export of the US goods be competitive. This might mean even if the US economy is doing well they may want to lower rates? This is what Mr T tweets about when he says he wants the dollar to fall. He accuses other Countries of manipulating the dollar and so he is not in favour of a High USD which makes Chinese goods cheaper in real terms and his tariffs less effective? Interesting to see if the Fed cut soon?
I m not totally surprised as it was never going to be linear. Gold is well a ove 1500 so holding up for now..perversely the better the us economy does the less likely the rates come down and the more US will push back against China...all of thatt will store up a bigger problem!
Wow not much as changed in the World and Aca down 7% I will have some of that. If the Lords cannot over ride the Queens agreement with Boris -happy days we will fly tomorrow.
Also Fed speaking as I just have this funny feeling that the US job numbers might not be as good as everyone predicts, I might be wrong but who knows -certainly worth a punt.
Back in again lol.
Down 7% I will have some of that. I was going to invest some profits from some of my other shares in here for a free purchase.
Fed talking later tomorrow could be interesting for Aca share price if they cut as expected.
Loved reading this article from last year. The journalist basically lectures a billionaire on not investing the way recommended by financial advisers.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-a-billionaire-makes-a-classic-investing-error/
It turns out the billionaire was right and the lame stream media journalist is a muppet. Surprise, surprise!
I will stick with the conversion into Barrick, but I have been tracking other small-mid sized miners and they are going up at an even better rate of knots than Barrick, though this is safe and we know what can happen with the smaller outfits if you're unlucky! If the trade war gets fixed and HK goes quiet then maybe gold will take a kicking and the market will go up on steroids again. I doubt it but it might. Barrick is only at the start of its recovery, even though it has near doubled in value the last year, I can see it doing so again over a 2 year time-frame. As a proxy to gold, we know a 1950 gold price or thereabouts would equate to a 40 USD share price, still under the 50+ it enjoyed at the last peak. We haven't even gone into recession yet, so patience is key as the noise in the market is inconsistent. It might be 12 months or so before a full blown recession and we could see another major rally and a new high in the DOW. MarkParker and BB may well have another wave to ride, whilst we languish around in Barrick like chumps. I still say HOLD though, as we're taking the guess work and risk out of the equation! Will there be a recession. YES. Will Gold go up a lot higher. YES. WHEN?? WHO TF knows!:-))
In Acacia shares!!!
If bond holders purchase ETF's in Gold / precious metals what will happen to that price? Safer place here again? I see we are in chaos in the commons again, and the Gold/Silver prices rising now faster than ever, we could be in for another good day here tomorrow -fasten your seats belts, Houston we have lift off.
I suppose we should thank all of those generous Mp's for thinking of our Gold miner shares. Up the Gold price, up the Palace!!
Maybe for now put some stop losses in place so that you can get out of positions and if there are some sensible hedges you can think of... it might be time to balance up the portfolio and increase pharmaceutical metals and defence for example. I m no expert and still nursing minor losses on ACA after 2 years but hope to provoke some inspired decisions!
Hi Mark,
No doubt this is still a very hard call in terms of what to do. I don t know.. the same as everyone else!! But..the best way I can put it is that if there is a stock market rally, a trade deal more stimulus and this turns out to be a blip..what will the markets do?? Go up another 20%....30%....maybe....rest assured though if Trump finds a way to keep the economy hot for his reelection the crash is out there and waiting to happen soon after... That much we can be 1000% sure of. Would a wise thing be to liquidate everything..sit on the sidelines with huge patience and wait for 12 months of the market bubble deflating...then re enter the market when it's at least halved. The Dow goes back to 14000 for example...then come back in when others fear to tread. The 30% you might make is not going to be as good as taking a ride near the next bottom not the high. Granted this may take 5 years+...but the risks are high now and not much topside. When the crash comes it ll happen so fast that getting out of positions will be a nightmare. I do think on balance there is money to be made but...the red lights are flashing up globally and at some point the market will react.